The reeling Vikes gather a Moss
by Peter Cowan
October 9th 2010
 
There are very few players whose mere presence on an NFL football field changes the way that game is played. Lawrence Taylor demanded double teams. Deon Sanders shut down half of the field. And for the last 11 years Randy Moss has commanded double coverage on virtually every single down. What is even rarer than finding one of these game changers in the draft is trading for a player like Randy Moss. On Monday he was a Patriot, drawing the attention of the Miami secondary. Tomorrow he will be hooking up deep with Brett Favre in practice. That is because in the most shocking trade since the Richard Seymour deal on the eve of last season, the Patriots dealt Moss and a 2012 7th round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft. The deal has dominated NFL headlines and sports talk radio across the pond. But what does this deal really mean for an already loaded Vikings team, a Patriots squad suddenly lacking in star power, and for perhaps the most naturally gifted receiver of all time: Randy Moss?
 
Let’s examine the circumstances that led to the departure of Moss. Throughout his career, as with so many receivers, controversy has followed in his shadow: from mooning at fans in Minnesota, to quitting in Oakland, to pouting at times in New England. This characteristic made Moss difficult for the Patriots to manage throughout his time in Foxboro. Quarterback Tom Brady had his locker beside Moss; they regularly had dinner and Belichick endeavoured to ensure Randy felt ‘appreciated’.
 
This special treatment is, in itself, at odds with ‘the Patriot way’. Do your job. No player is bigger than the team. These maxims do not seem to fit with a player like Moss and it serves to further highlight his value to the team that Belichick would suffer him. So this inability to fit to the Patriots’ blueprint meant Moss was always walking a tightrope. He was able to earn his keep by virtue of incredible production. Twenty-three touchdown catches in one season. Three 1000-yard seasons. And being the key contributor to the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen. To open this season however Moss has shown a mortal side, opening with only 9 catches so far. The low point undoubtedly came on Monday Night Football against Miami, where he ended with no catches and a reported argument with de facto offensive coordinator Scott O’Brian. So a drop off in production added to that infamous week one meltdown in which Moss said “it kind of feels like I’m not wanted”. Perhaps that made Moss slightly more expendable.
 
Ultimately, however, I believe the biggest reason for his departure was his contract situation. Moss made it no secret that he wanted a new, big money deal after his contract expired at the end of this season. Simply put, for the Patriots this sort of deal does not represent value. To pay a player at that sort of money, future production needs to be almost guaranteed. At 33 years old, the likelihood is that Moss and his production will, like many receivers, abruptly fall off. And investing millions of dollars into what could become an average player just isn’t the Patriot way.
 
So the New England brain trust had no intention of re-signing Moss, at least to the sort of deal he so clearly feels he is entitled. A team like Minnesota comes in with a decent offer and Belichick sacrifices Moss this year for a good, long-term deal. Chances are Moss blew up some stink in his meeting with Belichick after the Miami game and this is what forced the deal now. It is my belief the Patriots never planned to trade Moss and equally never planned to re-sign him. In that case, keeping Moss in New England after Miami became an untenable situation and, with a good trade on the table, Belichick cut his losses.
 
Now we know the reasons for dealing Moss, we must determine the short-term impacts of the deal. The first and most obvious impact is the detriment to the New England offense. While Moss may only have nine grabs on the season, three of those were for touchdowns, a statistic which highlights his importance to the offense. But losing Moss’s frequent trips to the end zone only begins to scratch the surface of the problems this trade could give the Patriots’ offense.
 
Moss himself summarised his role as “taking the top off the defense” and he couldn’t have put it better. Moss’s mere presence on the field forces teams to play deeper coverage and relinquish the underneath routes to the offense, which has been a key factor in Wes Welker’s unbelievable production, with 346 catches from 2007 to 2009 and 26 more so far this season. Losing Moss will allow teams to bring their safeties down the field and tighten up on Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman on shorter routes, at least until Brandon Tate proves himself on the outside.
 
So losing Moss will slow the Patriot offense, which has been one of the best in the NFL so far. Another immediate impact for New England will be the fact that losing Moss, for me, almost certainly eliminates the Patriots from Super Bowl contention. While the Patriots weren’t heavy favourites for the Lombardi trophy, I think Moss’s absence almost certainly rules the men from Foxboro out. With the offense less likely to produce at its previous level there will be incredible pressure on the Patriots’ defense, and the fact is that this unit has been poor so far this year. With inexperienced players from the defensive line to secondary, the Patriots have so far been forced to outscore opposing teams to win games. Without a great offense carrying an average defense into the playoffs, a tilt at a fourth ring for Brady and co seems unlikely.
 
How about long-term? The third round pick Belichick obtained means New England now has multiple picks in the first three rounds of the 2011 draft, including what is sure to be a high first round pick from the Oakland Raiders. Does this suggest the Patriot organisation has decided that this year, at least, is a re-building year and that the team needs to sacrifice luxuries like Moss in order to secure the future? When looking closer at the 2011 draft class, the Patriots seem to have a good chance of replacing Moss by drafting a player like Julio Jones or A.J Green if they feel Tate or rookie Taylor Price aren’t up to the task.
 
And Moss? The trade to Minnesota certainly benefits him. He returns to where his NFL career began and where he seemed to be relatively happy; he is still with a title contender and he should get his big payday.
 
In conclusion the Moss to Minnesota trade has undoubtedly been the biggest story of the NFL season so far. Patriots fans, for now anyway, will be up in arms about it. Losing Moss makes this season that bit harder for the Patriots and their supporters. Minnesota fans will, for the most part, be happy with a move that improves their weakness at receiver and brings an exciting, entertaining player to the Metrodome. Within a year, however, I predict these feelings will be reversed. Moss will fall off the map; possibly after Minnesota have rewarded him with a big fat contract. Patriots fans will see it and realise that this deal represented fantastic value and could help form what is shaping up to be good draft class.
 
Still, this deal will be judged by what Moss achieves in Minnesota. If he produces to his usual standards and behaves himself impeccably, the average fan will condemn the Patriots for trading away a sure-fire Hall of Fame player. If Minnesota splutter to an average season and Moss fades into insignificance, Belichick will again be glorified as the best coach in football. I believe the reality to be in between: Minnesota procures at least one good year from Moss and the Patriots get something for a player who was headed out the door for free. Only time will tell, but there’s one thing we do know for sure: Randy Moss is sure to be loving the fact we can’t stop talking about him.