2011 Senior Prospects - Top 3's
by Paul Emery
October 16th 2011
 
My board is starting to take shape as I methodically get through all the top prospects. As we approach the half way stage in the season, here are my top 3 senior prospects by position.
 
Quarterback
 
1. Kirk Cousins - Michigan State
2. Brandon Weeden - Oklahoma State
3. Ryan Tannehill - Texas A&M
 
The senior class has failed to impress me to date. Cousins is my top rated player as he's further along with using his eyes to move defenders and also making audibles at the line than the others. However, he is still making bad decisions and if that continues throughout the year, I may well drop him the list. Weeden has a big arm and can make all the throws, but Texas A&M's zone blitzes really confused him, which is a concern. He's an overaged prospect, so you can't afford to have him sit for 2 years as by then he'll be 30. He's going to need a team to change its offense just like the Panthers have done for Cam Newton. Tannehill only moved to QB midway through the 2010 season, so is still growing. He looks quite raw at times, but he does have more upside than the others. However, he will need some time to develop.
 
Running Back
 
1. Doug Martin - Boise State
2. Isaiah Pead - Cincinnati
3. Cyrus Gray – Texas A&M
 
The running back class is sure to be added to with a number of junior prospects, who I'll cover when they declare in January. I don't see any of these three as first round picks, but should start to draw interest mid-late second round. None of these three are real burners and indeed the better runners will already be in the NFL. Doug Martin leads the group – he's a guy who can break tackles. Pead looks to be a one cut zone running back. He flashes a burst through the hole, but struggles when the blocking isn't there. Gray had some big runs last year, but doesn't look to be super explosive this year – indeed on kick returns against Arkansas he looked flat out slow, so he could drop as we move forward. For now he's the number two RB for Texas A&M, so he'll need to pick things up fairly quickly.
 
Wide Receiver
 
1. Michael Floyd – Notre Dame
2. Jeff Fuller - Texas A&M
3. Marquis Maze - Alabama
 
This is looking like a really strong group, even before the juniors. When you think that pushing for the top three are TY Hilton (FIU), Kendall Wright (Baylor), Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), Nick Toon (Wisconsin), Jermaine Kearse (Washington), Dwight Jones (North Carolina) and Marvin McNutt (Iowa) you start to get an idea of how deep this class is.
 
Floyd is looking like the best senior player so far this year. He's been completely unstoppable in two games I've seen. He looks to have dropped some weight this year and is far more explosive. Fuller is a poor man's Floyd – but not too poor! He does a fine job coming back to the ball and coupled with his size, it makes him a nice big target and he would suit a young QB nicely. Maze gets the nod ahead of Hilton and Wright but only just! He has shown game breaking ability as a punt returner – switching field positions with a big return in the Penn State game and breaking one for a score against Arkansas. His production may be lower than some of the others, but you have to remember Alabama are a run first team.
 
Tight End
 
1. Coby Fleener - Stanford
2. Michael Egnew - Missouri
3. Ladarius Green - Louisiana-Lafayette
 
Conversely, this group is not quite as good. Fleener suffered a slight concussion in the Arizona game, but was back for the UCLA game and had 2 TD's. He's not a dominant inline blocker, but he can seal the edge and indeed I see him as a bigger and more athletic version of Lance Kendricks from last year. Egnew is used in the slot for the most part in Missouri's spread offense. They have a new quarterback and it looks like his production will be down on last years 90 catches. He could fall somewhat if he doesn't pick up, but with the lack of depth in this class and his athletic ability he should still be a top 100 pick. Green has been battling injury so far this season. He caught a TD pass in the FIU game, but was wide open on a 4th and 1 play fake, so I'm not reading a huge amount into it. I don't have him in my top 100 at the moment, so it does show how weak the class is that he still cracks the top three.
 
Offensive Tackle
 
1. Mike Adams - Ohio State
2. Nate Potter - Boise State
3. Andrew Datko - Florida State
 
Mike Adams has yet to play this year, but remains at number one based on his 2010 play. He has now completed his five game suspension and should play against Nebraska this coming weekend. He is a very athletic and flexible prospect, which means he can stay at left tackle at the next level. Potter is probably a pro right tackle. He's very good with his technique, but as he's not super athletic his value will be late first/early second round. Datko is a little like Duane Brown coming out of Virginia Tech, but his pass protection technique isn't as good. He's very skilled in the running game and has extensive experience in a zone blocking scheme. The big question is whether he has the ability to anchor against power and it prevents him from being rated ahead of the less athletic Potter.
 
Offensive Guard
 
1. Kevin Zeitler - Wisconsin
2. Kelechi Osemele – Iowa State
3. Lucas Nix - Pittsburgh
 
This is looking like a very solid group. Zeitler is the latest offensive line prospect from 'O-line U'. He's very athletic and dominated in the Nebraska game. Osemele plays left tackle for the Cyclones, but looks a little heavy footed to stay outside as a pro (he could perhaps handle right tackle). However, he does have power and has better technique than Georgia's Cordy Glenn who just misses out because of that. Lucas Nix was hurt early in the South Florida game, but it doesn't appear to be a serious injury thankfully. He will lunge off the ball at times and lose balance, but can and does play under control much of the time and looks very good when he does so.
 
Center
 
1. Philip Blake - Baylor
2. Mike Brewster – Ohio State
3. David Molk - Michigan
 
If you combined Blake's pass protection and Brewster's run blocking you'd have a first round pick. But as it is both have a weakness and thus their stock is lower. Blake tends to lunge off the ball in the run game, as a result he'll miss blocks and spends too much time on the ground. He gets the edge overall at number one as he looks very athletic in pass protection. Brewster plays nice and square in the run game – he can also get to the second level nicely. In pass protection, he doesn't sit in his stance and would struggle to anchor against someone like Haloti Ngata. Molk is a little undersized (288 lbs), but he has solid technique and has been effective. He may not suit power teams, but he will draw considerable interest as the draft moves towards the middle rounds.
 
Defensive End
 
1. Quinton Coples – North Carolina
2. Jared Crick - Nebraska
3. Melvin Ingram – South Carolina
 
Coples was the consensus top rated senior prospect coming into the year. He's had a slow start to the year and he's starting to slip down a few media boards slightly. He's a very smooth athlete and I think that gives the false impression that he's not particularly explosive. He has a fantastic frame and he should still be a very high pick. I've listed Crick at defensive end as I don't think he can hold up inside as a pro. He's ideal for a one gap 3-4 defense at the five technique position. He is asked to two gap by Nebraska, but he doesn't look able enough to keep blockers off his body to do that as a pro. Ingram has made a number of big plays this year. South Carolina move him around quite a lot, but he tends to spend most of his time at defensive tackle. He had a monster game against Auburn and looks very athletic. With a strong combine showing (which I would expect) he could well rise high into the first round. He's in his first year as a full time starter and still has a ton of upside.
 
Defensive Tackle
 
1. Alameda Ta'amu - Washington
2. Brandon Thompson - Clemson
3. Devon Still - Penn State
 
This is another deep group. Good prospects such as Kendall Reyes (Connecticut), Josh Chapman (Alabama), Kaleb Ramsey (Boston College) and Kheeston Randall (Texas) miss out, but should push for a top 100 placing. Ta'amu is a big man at 337 lbs, but moves remarkably well. Unlike Chapman, he doesn't come off the field on passing downs and he's far more effective rushing the passer. He should draw heavy interest from 3-4 teams. Thompson could also project to the NT position for one gap 3-4 teams. He's another big man (310 lbs), but has some real explosion off the ball. He will also appeal to 4-3 teams. Still has a little boom or bust about him, but when he's on his game he's extremely disruptive. Conditioning, or lack thereof, could be the concern with him as he seemed to wear down as the Alabama game progressed – but that's correctable.
 
Outside Linebacker
 
1. Courtney Upshaw – Alabama
2. Lavonte David - Nebraska
3. Vinny Curry - Marshall
 
This is the strongest group in this senior class. There's some top talent that misses out, including Bruce Irvin (West Virginia), Keenan Robinson (Texas), Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), Zach Brown (North Carolina), Sean Spence (Miami) and Brandon Lindsey (Pittsburgh). These guys are all explosive players and certainly have first/second round talent. I've included Upshaw and Curry here as they project better at linebacker in a 3-4 than 4-3 end.
 
Upshaw isn't perhaps super fast off the edge like Irvin – but he's a far more rounded player. He sets the edge very well in the run game and as a pass rusher uses his 'heavy hands' to keep blockers off his body. He has experience in Alabama's complex defense and with pro teams so comfortable with Nick Saban coached players, he looks like a sure fire first round pick. A few years ago David would likely have been considered a strong safety. However, with defenses in the nickel so often having someone like David will work very well. He's very instinctive and has been hugely productive. He does struggle to get off blocks at times, rather predictably given his size (225 lbs) – but he seems to have lucked out by coming onto the NFL scene at just the right time. Curry is quick off the edge and has a variety of pass rush moves. He's also a high energy guy who will make tackles from the backside.
 
Inside Linebacker
 
1. Emmanuel Acho - Texas
2. Audie Cole - North Carolina State
3. James-Michael Johnson - Nevada
 
Acho is the younger brother of Sam who was taken in the fourth round by the Cardinals in April. Texas with new defensive co-ordinator Manny Diaz are playing in a more aggressive scheme this year and he's attacking more. He could also project to a weakside LB slot. Audie Cole moved inside to replace Nate Irving (3rd round Broncos), but remains outside on passing downs to rush the passer. His stock seems to be ascending rapidly. Johnson loves to take on blockers, but doesn't always come out on top. He has some ability in coverage though, which will no doubt be put to good use early in his pro career.
 
Cornerback
 
1. Janoris Jenkins - North Alabama
2. Alfonzo Dennard - Nebraska
3. Chase Minnifield - Virginia
 
Coryell Judie (Texas A&M) also draws consideration, but after him there is a big drop off before the next tier. Like running back, this position should benefit greatly from junior talent to become a very good class. Jenkins was kicked off the Florida team in the spring, but remains at number one after he came out of some tough SEC matchups last year very well. He's far too talented for D2 football (where he's also starring on special teams – 2 punt returns for TD's already this year), but at least it allows him to play this year (he would have had to sit out if he transferred to another FCS school). Dennard missed the start of the season with injury, but returned against Wyoming in week 4. He looks best in press man, but at times will play up at the line and not press which is when he has some problems. Like Ras-I Dowling (round 2 Patriots) Minnifield looks to be very good in press coverage, but he's been playing off man coverage and even some zone this year. Hopefully the Virginia coaches will let him play on an island to allow him to fully show his considerable talent.
 
Strong Safety
 
1. Mark Barron - Alabama
2. Tony Dye – UCLA
3. Antonio Allen - South Carolina
 
These three prospects are talented, but there is a huge drop off after them. Barron looks a little more explosive this year. He's showing very good range in coverage, which has moved him up my board. He's an explosive tackler. Dye missed the first two games with a shoulder injury, but is now back. He played some cornerback early in his career, this experience in man coverage will only help his stock. Antonio Allen plays the 'Spur' LB position for South Carolina, but projects to SS as a pro. He's usually matched up with the slot receiver and as such is able to be very active in the run game. He seems to have a knack for the big play.
 
Free Safety
 
1. Markelle Martin – Oklahoma State
2. Robert Golden - Arizona
3. Trenton Robinson - Michigan State
 
Martin has a nice frame and like Barron is showing good range. He gets downhill quickly and can deliver some big time hits. Golden has experience at CB and looks to be very comfortable in man coverage. He's a little like Clemson's Marcus Gilchrist from last year and is ideal for the current trend of safeties with some cornerback skills. Robinson has over the top responsibility for the tight end or slot receiver, depending on the formation. He has a nice backpedal and break out of it.