Gman Takes (On) Stock(ers): 2009 NFL Season Predictions
The Western Divisions
by Chris Brophy & Ben Stockwell
13/8/2009
 
Pre-season is underway and whilst it's a sign that NFL football is back we soon get bored with it and the desire to get real football back becomes stronger and stronger. Once again, each week at the Diner, our regular prediction crew of Gman (Chris Brophy) and Stockers (Ben Stockwell) will flick coffee at each other, make paper aeroplanes with the serviettes and try to do a runner without paying their bill. They'll also predict the results from the NFL each week. Eager to chew the fat on the approaching NFL season though, our brave duo have decided to put their necks on the line and offer predictions for the divisions as well as final records, play-off qualification and ultimately, who will win it all!
 
In the first of a five part series before the season begins, our predictors take on the NFL's two Western divisions and offer their thoughts on who will win in the wild wild west(s).
 
*Division Champion; ~ Wild card qualifier

I've made my feelings on Norv Turner clear so many times but even my least favourite root vegetable can't mess this up surely!? It was a division gifted to the Chargers by a Broncos collapse and a nice Charger finish but since then, the Broncos have seriously regressed in my opinion, losing their franchise QB and making a scheme switch on defence which is going to take time and may get worse before it gets better. I also still fail to see the benefit of firing a coach who won your franchise its only two Super Bowls.
 
I think the Chiefs will show signs of getting things on the right track. Todd Haley appears to be a smart offensive mind and while I'm not expecting any kind of miracle turnaround I do think he'll get them playing some exciting football which was the only thing they did last year but with almost no results. The Raiders running game will give some opponents fits at times but I see little else to be positive about whilst the crazy old man is still running the show and only the Broncos regression saves them from the bottom spot.
 

This really is San Diego's division to lose, the offence returns fairly well in tact (though Mike Goff is not an insignificant departure) and the defence returns a key player who left the Chargers desperately missing sacks opposite Shaun Phillips. Aside from a collapse and the team falling apart they should ride the momentum of a late season surge in 2008 to a fairly comfortable division title in 2009. The Chiefs are a decent contender for the “worst to first” team this year, they've got a couple of good QBs, have made improvements to an already solid offensive line and have made some shrewd veteran acquisitions to bolster what was a very raw, young team last season. The loss of Tony Gonzalez will hurt but I think the Chiefs will turn a few heads this year.
 
For the Raiders I see signs of improvement but no big leap, they certainly closed last season well. The question is whether the coaching staff is truly independent of Al Davis' plans and desires for how to build and run this team. The running game is decent (though I think their best back, Michael Bush, is mired at the bottom of the depth chart) and the defence could at least be passable, but the question is whether JaMarcus Russell can step up and sort his timing and accuracy issues, he's got all the raw talent in the world but the finished article is a long way off. The Broncos have the talent to challenge for the division title but something about how this team is fitting together just doesn't sit very well with me. Kyle Orton is a fine QB, but is he capable of running a wide open offence that will need to score a lot to not only win games but simply keep the Broncos in games, because that defence is simply awful. The defence was poor in a 4-3, it smacks of square pegs in round holes for a 3-4 now. Even if it works, it will take time to fit and I have serious doubts that Orton can lead this offence to more points than the defence will leak and that mathematics adds up to a large number in the loss column.

The Cardinals took a weak division last year and then surprised everyone by getting hot in the post season. They return most of their roster although the losses of Todd Haley (OC) and Antonio Smith (DE) will sting a touch but they won't follow the Cardinal tradition of failing to sustain any type of success. However, I'm taking the 49ers to pip them for then divisional title. I love the Mike Singletary hire and given the NFL Coach of the Year award nearly always goes to a first year coach I'm tipping him to get it. He'll give the 49ers direction and drive that will take an underachieving roster and get it to finally produce the goods.
 
I also like the Steve Spagnuolo hire for the Rams. I expect his to have an immediate impact on the defence and have them scaring the living daylights out of opposing QB's. However, whilst I think Steven Jackson could produce a career year on the ground I have serious doubts about Marc Bulger and this teams passing game is going to hold them back but the Spags era will get off to a positive start. However, the Jim Mora Jr era won't and I think he's taken on the Seahawks job at totally the wrong time. Matt Hasselbeck has to prove he can stay healthy, the running game isn't convincing anyone and the defence is patchy. I just think they need too many things to go right (or back two years) for them to have success and I think things could snowball into a really bad season. Sorry 'Hawk fans!

The Seahawks have been the class of this division pretty much since the realignment at the start of the decade, last year was an injury related blip in my opinion and I expect them to re-establish their dominance this season with a return to health for Matt Hasselbeck and a legion of wide receivers. Jim Mora gets a lot of flak for the collapse of the Falcons but it's easy to forget that he built a fairly successful team prior to that. I think the return of Hasselbeck and most importantly Patrick Kerney will return the Seahawks to division winning form this season. Just edging out the 49ers who I think could make a bigger leap forward than this, but they need to give the starting job to Shaun Hill! Allowing Alex Smith to win the job back in practice is foolish, he's going to look better than Hill in practice, but put a full pass rush out there, game atmosphere and all that jazz and he hasn't looked like a passable QB since his season under Norv Turner. Shaun Hill played some really excellent football down the stretch last season and with him at the helm I think the 49ers could push the Seahawks for the division title. However the longer it takes to get Hill under centre, the smaller the margin for error to get back into the division title picture.
 
The Cardinals I think will continue the tradition of the Superbowl loser missing the playoffs, the team is just too unbalanced for me to think that they've turned a corner into being perennial contenders. The running game is still poor, replacing Edgerrin James with Chris Wells doesn't address the fundamental issue with the Cardinals' running game, that being that their interior is simply not up to scratch in the run blocking department. You could have Barry Sanders back there but if he's having to beat and cut around linemen in the backfield more often than not then your running game is simply not going to be up to scratch. Add in a defence that is extraordinarily inconsistent and lost its best player and you've got a recipe for a mediocre team that simply captured lightning in a bottle for the last month of the 2008 season. The Rams I think are simply a mediocre team, they've made some shrewd signings but there are still some fundamental flaws in this team, principally they don't have a QB and haven't really made an attempt to fix that. Marc Bulger has pedigree, but he hasn't shown any signs of being a mentally stable QB for some time now, he simply doesn't trust his offensive line and I think a major change, more major than bringing in Kyle Boller is required to get this team turned back around. Perhaps another poor season will stimulate that change.
 
Next time our predictors look at the Northern divisions.