Gman Takes (On) Stock(ers): 2009 NFL Season Predictions
The Southern Divisions
by Chris Brophy & Ben Stockwell
15/8/2009
 
In the third of our preview prediction series, our pop pickers get together to discuss the southern fairies of the NFL. Can Peyton Manning help his Colts hold off the challenging pack? Who will win the competitive NFC South? Gman and Stockers consider those questions and a few more. Read on...
 
*Division Champion; ~ Wild card qualifier

This division is as close as it has been for years with all four teams having parts of their roster that makes you believe they are capable. When making predictions for the season ahead it is easy to get swept up in the hype of teams who have made changes (for the perceived good or bad) and it's also too easy to look at last season and fail to see the difference. However, I will let the past influence me here as I'll try to explain.
 
The Colts have had lots of change on the sidelines but they have known the Dungy departure was coming and had a plan ready. Other assistants departed but are still around in another guise. What they still have is Peyton Manning and the current league MVP is the difference between all these teams hence they get my vote to win what I expect to be an ultra-competitive division. I think the Jags can bounce back from a disappointing season in '08. They'll be better on defence as Gregg Williams style didn't fit and offensively they have the experience of Torry Holt to help the air attack. As long as someone can help Maurice Drew-Jones carry the load (I expect Greg Jones to help) then they'll push the Colts hard again.
 
I think then Titans over-achieved last year but credit where credit is due, you'll be hard pressed to find a team in football that pushes you harder. However, I think the law of averages balances out and they loss a few tight games to drag their record down slightly this season. As for the Texans, I like a lot of their talent and I so want to believe they'll turn the corner but their traditional slow starts and Matt Schaub's inability to last a full season sees me remain pessimistic until proven otherwise.

This division is once again the class of the AFC and the entire NFL for my money. The Jaguars are the bounce back team for me this season; they had a huge number of close defeats last season that suggested to me that they weren't far off last year. With the addition of players like William Thomas & Torry Holt to the offence I think they will just tip the scales in a number of close games to turn around from close defeats to close victories.
The defence is still good and I just think the Jaguars are ripe for the "worst to first" title this year. The Titans were class of the regular season last year and I don't expect them to be far off this year. On paper this team isn't outstanding, the running game isn't super efficient and the passing game is subpar. However the persistence with the running game is what makes this team tick and a strong defence (that will not suffer greatly for the departure of Albert Haynesworth) will lead this team back to the playoffs.
 
The Colts era is coming close to the end but with Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne & Dallas Clark still present I don't think it's over just yet. The question for whether this team pushes on is whether the running game can return to prior form which will be important should they make the playoffs (which I think they will). I'm excited to see first round pick Donald Brown run the ball and hopefully take the starting role and majority of carries from the massively disappointing Joseph Addai. The Texans must be cursing being put in the AFC and not the NFC when they entered the league earlier this decade. At times they have had a good enough team to compete in almost any division except their own. I fear this may be the case again this year, however if they can make a fast start which they've failed to do in prior years then they could throw their hat firmly into the ring and make this one of the great divisional races in league history. But I'll believe it when I see it from the Texans.

The NFC South quietly put in a challenge to be the toughest division in football last year but then they went and loudly failed in play-offs with early exits by the qualifying Falcons and Panthers. Entering 2009 it looks like three of those teams will continue to challenge for success but it looks like an era is finally over in Tampa Bay.
 
I'm plumping for the Saints to take this division. I still have concerns they can be balanced on offense but have no doubts they'll still score plenty of points. Defensively, Gregg Williams jumps south divisions to try and fix the Saints defence and whilst his tenure in Jacksonville failed I believe he can have more joy with a unit that needs his kick-up-the-backside style. It'll be close though and the Panthers will push them all the way with their dual headed rushing monster and solid defence.
 
The Falcons look to have a wet dream of an offense – a young franchise QB, a superb running due, a big physical wide receiver happy with his new big fat contract and a future Hall of Famer at tight end. However, can Michael Turner produce those numbers again? Can Matt Ryan build on and improve from his fantastic rookie season and has Gonzalez got much left in the tank. That might sound like lots of doubts and it's unlikely they all come true but if one does, it could see a small regression. Add in a defence that still doesn't convince me and I think they lose out in a three horse race.
 
As for the Buccaneers, no Jon Gruden, no Monte Kiffin and Derrick Brooks gone, the era of been the best cover 2 D in football which always helped them compete look to be over. Add in a mess at QB (although I like Luke McCown), a new head coach and a tough division within which to establish themselves and I think the Buccaneers face a struggle in '09.

This division is being widely touted as a match for any in the league, I'm not quite sure I see the same strength. The Falcons are the class of the division however in my opinion, I am completely and utterly sold on Matt Ryan, Michael Turner leads a strong running game and Tony Gonzalez improves the offence yet further on a strong unit from last season. The defence is not a match but it was good enough last year and I think it will be again this year, the biggest question mark being whether Trey Lewis can adequately replace Grady Jackson. The Panthers will again be there or there abouts but the inconsistency of Jake Delhomme and the loss of Ma'ake Kemoeatu for the season make me uneasy about projecting them to retain the division title.
Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad might just be the most under-appreciated receiver tandem in the league and their running back combination is the best in the league. However the loss of Kemoeatu is crucial up the middle, exposing the depth at middle linebacker and allowing more linemen through to the second level. They'll still be there or there abouts but will fall just short in my opinion.
 
The first thing I'd have to say about the Saints is that if they finally see sense and make Pierre Thomas their featured running back and commit to the run more often I think they'd win this division. He is a better running back than Reggie Bush, he adds balance to the offence and he takes the pressure off of the passing game. The passing game can take that pressure but when you can shorten games it tends to increase your chances of winning. This team has the ability to be a balanced offence and dictate games to the opposition but I just think they let too many games turn into shootouts, which is not conducive to consistently winning football games in my opinion.
Sort that running game Sean Payton and this division is yours for the taking. All that's left now is the basement and the Bucs drawing the curtain on the most successful era in franchise history. Last season's collapse was absolutely monumental and was only overshadowed by Denver's collapse. Tampa Bay's reaction to that monumental collapse has also been overshadowed by Denver's, but looks likely to yield similar short term results, poor ones.
The question with both of these teams is patience, the fans won't have it but the owners and GMs must, if you're going to gut successful teams you've got to give the new era a chance or you doom yourself to longer term failure.
 
Next time our predictors look at the Eastern divisions.