Gman Takes (On) Stock(ers): 2009 NFL Season Predictions
The Northern Divisions
by Chris Brophy & Ben Stockwell
13/8/2009
 
Continuing with our look towards the NFL season, our regular prediction duo bang their heads together and see who can come up with the best guesses afterwards. This time it's the Northern divisions.
 
*Division Champion; ~ Wild card qualifier

It's easy to believe an NFL Champion may take its foot off the gas a little but if there is one team I don't ever see as ever relaxing it's the Steelers. They are still the best team in this division and whilst the Patriots will push them for conference dominance, the Steelers will be there every step of the way. One of my “surprise” picks (what's a surprise in the NFL nowadays?) is the Bengals heading back to post-season. The return of Carson Palmer means the offense will have far more to offer and defensively it wasn't too bad last year as Marv Lewis finally started to get some results from that unit.
 
They'll edge out a Ravens team that will still give you a tough battle but I do think a few defensive disappearances finally catch up on them. As for the Browns, I'm not an Eric Mangini fan and if the offense is led by a game of musical quarterbacks that is not going to help. Add in that Jamal Lewis may now be running on fumes and I fail to see where they'll push the other teams in this division.

The Steelers are still the class of this division, they proved as much last year beating the next best team three times (why did I remind myself of that?), however they aren't necessarily a team set up to blitz through a regular season. They can (see 15-1 season), but aren't necessarily set up to do so. However they should still cruise to the division title this year and then it turns to the playoffs where they are set up to be a tough match up for anyone. The Ravens trail in second again for me this year but miss the playoffs; I'll be honest and say I'm not quite sure where my team is at this year. High expectations surrounding the Ravens always make me somewhat uneasy; we always seem to flatter to deceive whenever big things are expected of us. Big question marks in my mind are how will Joe Flacco progress in year two? And how will the defence replace Bart Scott? The departure of Rex Ryan doesn't concern me one iota but Scott was simply put the most destructive LB in the NFL last year against the run, that's not something that's easy to replace and I'm not sure I see someone on the roster to replace that aggression and brute force to disrupt opposing running games. A step back this year, but smaller than previously and positive signs for the long term future, hopefully.
 
The Ohio's again bring up the rear in this division for my money this year, the Bengals are showing signs of improvement but can the defence build on its improvements last year and be there to pick up the slack if the offence doesn't return to form with Carson Palmer back under centre? I'm not so sure and I don't think it's a given that the offence will return to former glories without the effective and efficient TJ Houshmandzadeh opposite the unstable Chad Johnson. If the offence returns to form then the Bengals are a threat for a wildcard, however I think they fall short. The question then becomes whether this is viewed as a step building back to the summit of a tough division, or whether this is the failure that costs Marvin Lewis his job. As for Cleveland, they were woeful last year and the hiring of Eric Mangini fills me with no confidence that they'll bounce back from that season. Some good moves have been made (such as picking up Kenyon Coleman) but these are small fry in comparison to the bigger issues with this team.

I've bought my ticket to the “Jay Cutler helps push the Bears from pretenders to contenders” bandwagon. The Bears offense does need a wide receiver to really step up their game in order for Cutler to really be successful but Greg Olsen is in line for a career year and a better passing game takes all the focus off of Matt Forté. They'll edge the more talented Vikings who will suffer from not having a settled QB. However, I'll qualify that by stating if I'm wrong on their QB's, the Vikings are NFC Champion contenders.
 
Over in Green Bay I fail to see a big difference from last year. I fully expect the offense to provide yardage and points but I am not a fan of their switch to the 3-4 scheme. As for the Lions, they'll finally get a win somewhere (Week 3 against the Redskins is my bet) but they are not going to Dolphin-like turnaround on an unsuspecting public. They'll take some steps in the right direction but they'll be baby steps.

The Packers were an unexpected drop off last season for me and I think they can consign it to a development blip by this projected bounce back. The offence is very strong, with Aaron Rodgers they have one of the best QBs in the league and a strong receiving corps that will keep them in most games and allow them to fight back into games should they fall behind. The question marks are the running game and defence but I think the running game should be there this year, if they can settle on a line then the running game should come with that as I feel the talent is there up front. The defence similarly to Denver smacks of square pegs in round holes but I think the talent is better here, particularly on the line which will free up the linebackers to play in more space. For the Vikings it's the same old story, this team has the talent to win this division at a canter but I still don't see Childress putting his faith in one QB to allow this team to grow. Tarvaris Jackson is the man to build this year's team around in my opinion but Childress simply won't take the training wheels off. Fortunately for Childress this team has more than enough talent to still win games even against his best efforts to hold them back.
 
The Bears are the trendy pick for the North but I'm not sold in the least. Cutler it is assumed will put up big stats but who is he going to throw the ball to? His best receiver is Greg Olsen and that's fine but I don't like the idea of building a passing game around a tight end and I simply don't see the receivers outside to make the passing game work. Then I still have the same issue as ever with the Bears defence, it's too reliant on turnovers, now this is all well and good when you get them, but if a team comes in with the plan to take what the Bears give them (which is too much) and can muscle the front on the running game (which you can) the Bears defence can be found wanting. I think this team is a year away from truly competing, will Lovie Smith survive a building year however after he sold the farm for his franchise QB? Then the Lions, bringing up the rear again, they'll improve but there's simply so much room for improvement there that I can't see them doing anything but occupying the basement of this division again.
 
Next time our predictors look at the Southern divisions.