Gman Takes (On) Stock(ers): 2009 / 2010 NFL Weekly Predictions
Super Bowl XLIV
by Chris Brophy & Ben Stockwell
4/2/2010
 
So here we are, at the end of another hard fought, exciting season. It goes far too quick doesn't it? The play-off games this season have not always been the most exciting but when they have been close calls they have been as compelling as anything you could hope for and I think the Packers – Cardinals clash will stay in many people's mind for a long time.
 
It's been a story of missed opportunities though with kicking especially having seen the “choker” tag thrown into the headlines a few times. How do you stop choking? Give it a new fat contract!
 
That's enough about what has happened, onto what is going to happen in Super Bowl XLIV! Our intrepid duo sat down in the Diner and tucked into the tasty match-up that is this year's battle for the Lombardi – The Indianapolis Colts of the AFC taking on the New Orleans Saints of the NFC. Read on as they examine the key issues of the game and give their predictions:
 
1, This looks like a battle of the Quarterbacks, but which one is more important to their team's chances of victory?
 
Gman: Peyton Manning – If either team's triggerman goes down the other side becomes the instant favourite but in the case of Manning, it's not just that he throws the football so well and makes the correct reads it's the way he runs the offense and pretty much calls the plays. Manning is the great director whereas Brees is just a superb executor of the Sean Payton gameplan.
 
Stockers: Peyton Manning – Both QBs are integral and picking one of the other is not to suggest the other isn't vital for their success, they are both crucial to the respective successes of their franchises this season. That said, Manning doesn't just execute a system as Brees does, he executes it and he runs it. The reads he makes pre-snap, his organisational skills all on top of his physical skills are the reason he is the most valuable player in the NFL. He's an old style QB; he runs the show and stars in it as well. Take either player out of the equation and neither team would be here, you'd also have to alter the offence to accommodate the backup. That said, the changes would be more critical in Indianapolis and without him the running game isn't strong enough to be the featured part of the offence, Brees is crucial to the Saints, Manning is the Colts.
 
2, To keep the other team's star QB on the sideline, the best way would be to grind clock and establish a running game – which team can do that best?
 
Gman: Saints - If they put their mind to it, the Saints could be one of the leagues better running teams. Sean Payton has been more patient this season but he still has Drew Brees and a quick fire passing game he wants to use as much as possible. If he combines Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and the enigma that is Reggie Bush correctly he could find they provide big plays and ball control that can help the Saints win.
 
Stockers: Saints – Without a second of doubt it's the Saints and by a comfortable margin, they're better in the backfield and they're better on the line as well. The Colts best lineman is Ryan Lilja and he wouldn't make it to starting on the Saints' line, the Saints' guards are the best pair in the league and with solid play from Sullivan inside are capable of caving a weak Colts' interior D-line and have the mobility to get out & on top of the Colts' undersized LBs to boot. The Saints' D-line is nothing special but the Colts will struggle even to control that in the running game.
 
3, Can either team's defence cope with the others offense?
 
Gman: Yes – For the Saints, if they can get to Manning as much as possible it will help their cause no end. Greg Williams loves to blitz but he need to come up with some stuff that is either against his tendencies or is of new design because Peyton Manning is the master of preparation and will have seen everything he usually throws at opposing QB's. If the Saints D can get to Manning regularly and especially on those crucial third downs then they will be able to command this game. The Saints have the talent and co-ordinator with the type of attitude to keep Manning in check if they do their homework and play to their absolute best but it's a massive ask.
 
Stockers: No – Neither defence is going to shut down the opposing offence. The Saints' line and scheme is too quick for the Colts pressure to break Brees and the passing game and the scheme isn't set up to grind the clock and run the Colts out of the game. On the other side Gregg Williams has been making a lot of noise about hitting Manning, I'll believe that when I see it, Manning's release is too quick and is rarely hit due to his great pocket presence, if the hits come in expect the flags to fly as well, they will be late. This game will come down to one D making one or two key stops.
 
4, That old X-factor of special teams is sure to rear its head at some point, which team is best equipped to get the break with their suicide squad?
 
Gman: Saints – They have the returners to break open the big plays but most importantly, they now have a kicker who has kicked a pressure kick to win a big game. The Colts have the ultimate pressure kicker in Adam Vinatieri but he hasn't played all year although Stockers homeboy – Matt Stover – is a pretty able replacement. Special teams can be big momentum changer and a big return or a missed/made/blocked kick could be one of the key moments in this game.
 
Stockers: Saints – Neither unit is outstanding but the Colts' special teams units have long been a weakness derived from their salary imbalance towards high salary big name players. If Courtney Roby is healthy from his bum ankle from the Championship game he's a threat for a big return and Reggie Bush on punt returns could light this game up. I don't think either special teams unit will decide matters but I think there's little doubt the Saints are better set to make big plays from this unit.
 
5, Which team will win and why?
 
Gman: Colts – As most of my previous answers indicate, I can see how the Saints can win, but only if they do pretty much everything right – get to Manning and keep him in check, find some special teams momentum and have their running game deliver – and even one of them is a big ask, all three is near impossible. The Colt defense is capable of at least making enough plays to give Manning a shot, the special teams are solid and Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning so unless the Saints play a close to perfect game it's the Colts for me.
 
Stockers: Colts – Much as I think the Saints are well set up to take down the Colts with their strong interior O-line and quick passing scheme to expose the heart of the Colts' D and negate the threat off of the edge, I think Manning is simply playing too well to be edged out, he will find a way to win. This game is pretty much a coin toss but Manning is the x-factor that makes me think the Colts will find a way to win.
 
6, Who will be the game's MVP and why?
 
Gman: Reggie Wayne – The Saints will blitz, Dallas Clark might have to stay home at times and block so Reggie Wayne will find a lot of single coverage. I could see him been in line for a big game. Obviously Peyton Manning is the hot favourite should the Colts win but if it's one target getting a lot of his balls then they have as good a chance.
 
Stockers: Peyton Manning – Should the Colts win he's the biggest name and the most valuable player on the winning team. Not the greatest deductive leap or most “out there” pick, but it is voted for the fans, so I'd give short odds it's either going to be Brees or Manning depending upon the outcome.