The AFC South consistently delivers good and one case excellent football teams, and 2010 looks like its shaping up to be one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL. The Colts remain the cream of the crop but how will they respond to their shock defeat by the Saints in the Superbowl? The trendy pick over the past year or so has been the Texans, but does the Diner's duo see this as the year they finally reach the promised land? Elsewhere the Titans and Jaguars both arguably under-achieved last year; how will Messrs Garrard and Young fare leading their teams in 2010?
Houston Texans Last season 9-7 Key additions - Neil Rackers (K Arizona) Key losses Ryan Moats (RB) Draft picks include R1 Kareem Jackson (CB Alabama), R2 Ben Tate (RB Auburn), R3 Earl Mitchell (DT Arizona)
DOC: Ah the perennial fancied picks, who just haven't made it yet. Will 2010 be their year? Frankly, and I am going to be incredibly tough on them, it should be. There's no room for excuses and reasons 'why not' any more. The amount of high draft picks, the talent on both sides of the ball and possibly the best receiver in the league, providing he's not pouting about his contract which, by the way was ridiculous. Kubiak's also had his contract extended. He really has to push them over the top this year; otherwise you might be left wondering if he ever will. If it's not this year then my own personal view is that he should be done in Houston. Matt Schaub continues to be amongst the most prolific quarterbacks in the league and generates both points and yardage. They've never quite got it right in the running game. Steve Slaton can be a game breaker but is a bit unreliable, now they've added rookie Ben Tate who's strong and solid but hardly earth-shattering. So it's a RRBC approach which should keep things ticking over when it's coupled with the passing game. I still maintain LT could have been an inspired signing for the Texans if it suited both sides though. Defensively they've invested a lot. High first round picks Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing (despite his four game ban), and now Kareem Jackson from Alabama. And I think it might come together. Granted, unless something wipes out Indianapolis the Texans are never going to win the division so a wild-card is the most they can hope for. So yeah, I'll forecast it. The Texans push over the top and clinch a wildcard.
DANG: No longer a sexy pick, just a team that needs to take it to the next level now.
I called them to make the playoffs last year. I also called this as being the best division in the league. Records suggest that this could be argued to be the case, however, behind the Colts, nobody lived up to their expectations, all finishing with adequate efforts and only the Colts made the playoffs.
The Texans are now poised, ready to start challenging in post season. They've shown that they are close to hanging with the Colts regularly, but now it's time to try and do what they haven't done in 4 years, beat the Colts. They won't win the division, but stepping up and conquering the Goliath that is Indianapolis, will be the only way people start to take real notice of this team. They will make the playoffs this year. As Doc touched on above, the running game is a big part to keeping their pass first, dangerous offense, (welcoming back a soon-to-be fit again Owen Daniels who was HOT at the start of 2009 before his injury), moving the chains. The addition of rookie running back Ben Tate will help, but Steve Slaton needs to address his handling issues if they're going to pip the Titans to a playoff spot, let's also not forget Arian Foster as well, who could prove to be a hidden gem on the roster.
Houston boasts one of the league's best unit's of Linebacker's who will play an enormous part in shaping the outcome of this team's destiny, becoming a pretty dominant run-stopping defence, however, somebody must step-up to replace Brian Cushing during his four game suspension. It will be close between the Texans and Titans for the 3rd spot with the Texans edging it, finally grabbing that elusive playoff place, they might even surprise a number of people and even go a bit further than just a Wild Card spot, watch this space...
Indianapolis Colts Last season 14-2 lost in Superbowl to New Orleans Saints Key additions Tim Brandstater (QB) Key losses Ryan Lilja (OG), Raheem Brock (DE), Jim Sorgi (QB) Draft picks include R1 Jerry Hughes (DE TCU), R2 Pat Angerer (LB, Iowa), R3 Kevin Thomas (CB, USC)
DOC: No-one is really going to come close to the Colts yet again, in the AFC South this year. There's not a lot to really add; this juggernaut continues to roll on and on under the masterful guidance of Peyton Manning. I suppose there are two things in my head when I think about the Colts this year though. The first is how they will bounce back from the loss in the Superbowl when Gregg Williams completely outfoxed Manning. There's no doubt they'll come back strongly but what will change to make sure they don't suffer the same fate when they get into the post-season again. I'm sure Peyton's been putting in the hours to make sure he learns the lesson, and then will be imparting that to his offence. I have no doubts they can recover from this. The second issue is more to do with the division. Really this should be a strong division, with four teams who are either on the cusp of, or are used to playing in January. Will the improvement in the other three sides have an impact? Probably. The division won't be as easy for the Colts in 2010 but they'll still win and they'll still get home field advantage by the virtue that the East and North will prevent the Ravens and the Jets. And whilst I think those two teams could be the team in the AFC this year, the road to Dallas still goes through Indianapolis.
DANG: Perennial favourites, 8 straight years in the playoffs, so chalk up a 9th for 2010. The Colts will win this division aided by the best quarterback in the league, proving that the Super Bowl hangover is just myth that over-achiever's use when falling short, after failing in the previous year's Super Bowl. OK, so not all of them were over-achievers but none of them have Peyton Manning as their Quarterback, yet a staggering number of team's who do lose in the big game, fail to make it to the playoffs the next year (7 from the last 9). The Colts will buck the trend, despite an improved division and much tougher schedule. We won't see them at 14-2 again, but we will see them topping the South. Manning will continue to make stars out of the likes of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, whilst Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark still remain near the top of their respected positions within the league. Anthony Gonzalez also makes a welcome return to the Colts passing game after missing most of last year through injury. Look for Jerry Hughes to make an immediate impact on Defense as the Colts take the home-field advantage in the AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars Last season 7-9 Key additions Kassim Osgood (WR San Diego), Aaron Kampman (DE Green Bay), Kirk Morrison (LB Oakland), Freddy Keiaho (LB Indianapolis), Justin Smiley (OG Miami) Key losses Reggie Hayward (DE), Torry Holt (WR), Tra Thomas (LT), Quentin Groves (DE Oakland), John Henderson (DT) Draft picks include R1 Tyson Aluala (DT, California), R3 D'Anthony Smith (DT, Louisiana Tech)
DOC: Jacksonville. The franchise I will admit to often forgetting about, such is the relative quiet around them. Last year looked to be a down year for the Jaguars yet they still managed to pull together seven wins a testament to the toughness of the team. But there have been many changes in the off-season and I'm a fan of many of them. Defensively, adding both Aaron Kampman and Kirk Morrison instantly gives the defence a much needed shot in the arm. Other additions like Freddy Keiaho and first rounder Tyson Aluala mean that they'll look very different come the first weekend of the year. They've never been a team that moves the ball through the air can anyone tell me when they've ever had a receiver of any note beyond Jimmy Smith? So again it will fall on the pocket dynamo MJD to keep the offence ticking over. I've never been particularly sold on David Garrard despite the one excellent season he had but in reality, that's a distant memory now. Nothing really ever inspires me about them. I think they end up bottom of the pack much like 2009 but with likely the same sort of record; 7-9. They're not an awful team; they're a ten win team in another division. It's just that I have the Texans and Titans rated slightly higher.
DANG: The Jags are not a bad team. The Jags are just victim to circumstances at this moment in time. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Vince Young, Chris Johnson all twice a year, all on teams which are currently ahead of them in terms of talent on the roster. That's some rough going week after week.
Maurice Jones-Drew will continue to carry the team on his shoulders, but as for the rest of the offense, I'm not convinced they pack enough punch to get over the .500 mark again this year. Defensively, they will be a tougher unit in the front 7, following some decent additions in both Free Agency and the draft. I still say they could have traded down for Alualu though, but the defensive backs are still the weakpoint of the team and will be looking for help from the likes of Alualu and Morrison to hide some of their weaknesses, however, Schaub and Manning will continue have their way.
The Jags will finish off with 5-6 wins maximum this year, looking to address some of its Offensive frailties in the April draft but with a drop off in victories it could well be a new Head Coach that oversees its overhaul.
Tennessee Titans Last season 8-8 Key additions Will Witherspoon (LB - Philadelphia) Key losses Kyle vanden Bosch (DE Detroit), LenDale White (RB Seattle), Kevin Vickerson (DT, Seattle), Keith Bulluck (LB New York Giants) Draft picks include R1 Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech), R3 Damian Williams (WR, USC), R3 Rennie Curran (LB, Georgia)
DOC: The Titans I like. But they face the same obstacles that the Texans do in this division on an annual basis. And I'll be honest and say I can't quite make my mind up about what they'll do this year. I've never hidden the fact that I'm a believer in Vince Young and last season no-one was more pleased by the way he bounced back from his problems and frankly, led the rescuing of a team that at 0-6 and after the debacle in New England were done. The big question has to be though, whether he can continue in this vein. My money is on yes. We know he's never going to be elite; we know he's going to make mistakes and some people are just never going to buy it. But he can win in this league and he can be effective and the Titans seem to know how to use him right. Of course, it's always helped when you have the best back in the league behind you ready to take it to the house. Johnson probably won't have as big a season as he did in 2009 but he will still put up some scary numbers. The only niggling question I have is whether the inexperienced backs behind him can provide adequate support which, actually to be fair, sometimes the departed LenDale White didn't do. I've written many a time about the lack of receiving options in Tennessee and whilst they're still hardly scary, Kenny Britt showed flashes and importantly, showed he had a good link-up with Young. I look for him to develop. Defensively you know what you get from the Titans. For the #16 pick in the draft, to get the best end in this year's class was a steal; I'm a huge Derrick Morgan fan. Realistically the Titans could be the second or third AFC South team to enter the post-season. But the division is equally tough they could end up bottom of the heap!
DANG:
One of the most exciting teams to watch offensively last season once Vince Young was handed the keys. Chris Johnson exploded with a 2000 yard season and the Titans went from 0-6, to finish 8-2 and with an 8-8 record, truly remarkable, despite, like Jacksonville, not having a real identity in the receiving game. Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Justin Gage and Lavelle Hawkins are solid, but nothing more. Vince will make plays with his feet, but a legit #1 WR for this team would bring them closer to the Colts. As it is, they'll compete with the Texans for the 2nd place position and a Wild Card spot appearance. Young needs to really step it up when the team need him though. There were times where he still looked awful, but with a full season I'm expecting progress and questions to be answered. If Johnson goes down for any period of time though, this team will come to an almighty standstill. Vince Young will not be able to carry them himself the way he used to with his teammates at College with Texas. Defensive End Derrick Morgan will help to fill the void left by Kyle Vanden Bosch bringing some added toughness and aggression, helping out a secondary that struggled in 09 after an impressive 08 campaign. There are a lot of similarities with the Titans and the Jags in terms of unit's strengths within the team. Both have the majority of their offense going through their star running back, with Quarterbacks who will always have question marks hanging over them during their time in the league, both have average at best Wide Receivers, poor Offensive lines and both have porous secondary's.
The AFC South will see another well contested year, but unfortunately for the Titans, I see the Texans pipping them at the post for a playoff spot.
DOC: The Titans I like. But they face the same obstacles that the Texans do in this division on an annual basis. And I'll be honest and say I can't quite make my mind up about what they'll do this year. I've never hidden the fact that I'm a believer in Vince Young and last season no-one was more pleased by the way he bounced back from his problems and frankly, led the rescuing of a team that at 0-6 and after the debacle in New England were done. The big question has to be though, whether he can continue in this vein. My money is on yes. We know he's never going to be elite; we know he's going to make mistakes and some people are just never going to buy it. But he can win in this league and he can be effective and the Titans seem to know how to use him right. Of course, it's always helped when you have the best back in the league behind you ready to take it to the house. Johnson probably won't have as big a season as he did in 2009 but he will still put up some scary numbers. The only niggling question I have is whether the inexperienced backs behind him can provide adequate support
which, actually to be fair, sometimes the departed LenDale White didn't do. I've written many a time about the lack of receiving options in Tennessee and whilst they're still hardly scary, Kenny Britt showed flashes and importantly, showed he had a good link-up with Young. I look for him to develop. Defensively you know what you get from the Titans. For the #16 pick in the draft, to get the best end in this year's class was a steal; I'm a huge Derrick Morgan fan. Realistically the Titans could be the second or third AFC South team to enter the post-season. But the division is equally tough they could end up bottom of the heap!