Number Crunching – NFL Draft Special
by Chris Brophy
April 25th 2010
 
A bit of a break from the usual player number crunching glance through the menu I usually bring you once or twice a week at the Diner. Given it's the NFL draft this week a bit of a change up as we look at the best and worst players drafted at their respective number in the NFL draft. It's being interesting researching this little side project so take a look at the table of best and worst picks below and after you've digested it , settle back with a coffee and an after-dinner mint to read a few of the little stories that I found whilst gathering my information.
 

 
As I came up with this idea I started working through the history sections of various draft websites for the information I desired and discovered I wasn't the first to come up with this idea. However, after discovering the likes of SI.com had cheated a little (best example being they had Joe Namath at #12, he was taken their by the NFL's St Louis Cardinals but #1 overall by the AFL's NY Jets. Given he never played for the Cardinals I couldn't take that as a serious option) I decided to go ahead and form my own list. It should also be noted that for picks #29 to #32 only first round selections of those numbers were used, no picks from when those picks were in the second round are represented. Also, if you do find those other articles flying around the internet, for the worst picks I ruled out some choices who were ruined by injury or death. Running backs like Ki-Jana Carter (#1 Bengals, 1995), Robert Edwards (#18, Patriots, 1998), David Overstreet (#13, Dolphins, 1981), wide receiver Yatil Green (#15, Dolphins, 1997) and safety Don Rogers (#18, Browns, 1984) are examples I considered until I decided their fate was bad luck or poor off the field choices rather than lack of talent.
 
What I do think the above table shows is how good or bad any pick can be. If you pick at number six in a draft you can end up with Jim Brown - arguably the greatest running back ever – or Hall of Famers like Sammy Baugh and John Riggins. At the same time if a team doesn't do its research it can end up with a Lawrence Phillips or David Klingler (Bengals, 1992). Ironic that both Klingler and his predecessor at the University of Houston - Andre Ware - failed in the NFL as run n' shoot QB's in a time when the system was at its height of popularity.
 
If you want a wide receiver in the draft might be best to avoid the #10 pick. I have Mike Williams of the Lions (currently attempting a comeback with the Seahawks) as my choice but David Verser (Bengals, 1981), JJ Stokes (49ers, 1995) or David Terrell (Bears, 2001) could have filled the slot instead. Even Travis Taylor (Ravens, 2000) wasn't a raging success. However, one pick later at #11 you could have Hall of Famer Michael Irvin or if he's not your cup of tea, another Hall of Famer in Paul Warfield (Browns, 1964). The Cowboys also got DeMarcus Ware at the #11 slot so I'm sure they would be happy to pick there again in the future. For every positive there is a negative though and whilst the Cowboys have found success if the Saints ever get the #11 overall pick again maybe they should deal it away. Shawn Knight is our selection here but it could have easily have been the highest ever drafted pure kicker in Russell Erxleben (1979). The Saints took him hoping he would free up a roster spot as a kicker and punter but whilst he lasted a few years punting in the league with the Saints and Lions he never fulfilled the dual role properly and was a massive reach that failed. Knight beats him on the virtue of barely lasting a season in the league.
 
The Dolphins had a similar problem at #16 but in their case for two years running. Whilst not mentioned in our list as big Dan McGwire beats them out, John Bose (1987) and Eric Kumerow (1988) were two straight bust picks for the Dolphins at the same position at the same spot. It's a funny old game!
 
I wonder if the Vikings had taken a different back other than DJ Dozier at #14 in 1987 would they have made the ill-fated Herschel Walker trade? Then again, there were five other bust backs drafted (Paul Palmer, Roger Vick, Rod Bernstine, Terrance Flagler, Kenny Flowers) before the first real successful runner of the '87 draft can be found (Christian Okoye, Chiefs in round 2). Speaking of the Vikings, just google Dimitrius Underwood (#29) if you don't know his bust story – it's too long for these pages!
 
The Redskins have a couple of choices near the end of the numbers, Andre Johnson cost them a third round pick to move up and acquire but he was cut after never seeing the field a year later. Given Heath Shuler (1994) and Desmond Howard (1992) only just missed this list it's no wonder Charley Casserly is on the NFL Network studio this coming draft rather than making selections for an NFL team.
 
If I – or anyone – were to try and select the ultimate best and worst ever single number one picks of all-time it could be argued over long and hard but I do think the tie in between QB Dan Marino for the Dolphins and NT Gabe Rivera for the Steelers in 1983 makes for the best case on each side of the coin as their drafting is intertwined. Marino was a local hero in Pittsburgh with his success for the local university and at #21 he made sense for the Steelers who needed a replacement for Terry Bradshaw (our worst #28, Mark Malone was not the answer!) but dogged by rumours of cocaine use and not being the sharpest knife in the draw (in all fairness, Marino wasn't but he had superb instincts as he would go on to prove) the Steelers passed and took Gabe Rivera. I don't think I need to go on much further do I?
 
That last story shows how fickle a creature the NFL draft can be. One great pick can help your franchise stay competitive and be in with a shot every year of winning the big one but get it wrong and you can be chasing your tail for years to come. As excited as you will be as your team drafts its potential future stars this weekend remember a lot of these guys aren't going to work out.