NCAA Scouting
Paul Hopkins' 2012 1st Round Mock Draft V1.0 by Paul Hopkins
February 6th 2012
The confetti has barely been swept off the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, but all NFL franchises but the New York Giants are now focused on the impending free agency period as well as the NFL Draft. There is more than two months to go, with all the usual debate and discussion around the merits, measurables and intangibles still to follow.
But it's never too early to start looking at the Draft in terms of who needs what, who picks where and what the prospects list looks like. As time goes by I am sure trades will come into it, but we shall wait and see what Free Agency brings before projecting those into our mock.
1 – Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford
The Irsay-Manning divorce is starting to turn a bit ugly, and despite the CEO/Owner increasing coming across as erratic, you assume he's going to hold fire to the surest thing in the Draft and the locked-on first pick since last January. Fortunately for him, he likely won't have to draft another quarterback for a further fifteen years.
2 – St Louis Rams – Matt Kalil – OT - USC
This is the immediate prime position for a trade. We saw last year how keen teams are to move up for a QB. And this year after Luck and Robert Griffin III the drop-off is not inconsiderable. Throw in the new rookie wage cap, and the trade looks possibly. Jeff Fisher will dangle the pick out there, but everyone knows Sam Bradford is his QB. Kalil is the stud tackle in this year's class and Fisher needs him to keep his fragile QB on the field.
3 – Minnesota Vikings – Riley Reiff – OT - Iowa
Should the Rams stick and pick, this selection becomes all the more fascinating. Could the Vikings be tempted by Griffin? Did Christian Ponder show enough for them to pass over the Draft's top athlete in RGIII? Thing is, the Vikings aren't too hot across the board and a slew of picks from elsewhere could help them. If they stay here, an OT is a big need. Should Kalil remain, he's the choice. If not, then Reiff is a strong, solid pick that will help their young QB.
4 – Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III – QB - Baylor
I'll be very surprised if after he blows everyone away at the Combine, Griffin lasts this long. If he does, then Holmgren and Shurmur must be clapping and squealing with delight. The Browns have lacked a franchise QB and playmakers for far too long and Griffin is all these rolled into one.
5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne – CB - LSU
Tampa Bay turned into a car wreck in the second half of the season. New man Greg Schiano has history of turning around programmes in college, but can he do this in the pro's. Trent Richardson could be a possibility to help get Josh Freeman back on track, but it was the defence that fell away late on. Ronde Barber is not getting older and AquibTalib is never far from trouble. Claiborne stood out on a stellar LSU defence.
6 – Washington Redskins – Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma State
It's fair to say that if they don't acquire someone through free agency, the Redskins will be hopping to move up and nab themselves RGIII. But if they get their guy, look for them to put a piece in place to help him. Richardson again could complete a bruising backfield with Roy Helu. But the Skins have lacked a deep threat for years. Blackmon is the elite receiver in this draft and will be a welcome addition for whomever the Skins have under centre.
7 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina
The Jaguars have never had a pass rusher they can hang their hat on. Coples spent a lot of his last season in college rampaging through offensive lines into backfields, nabbing 7 ½ sacks, 15 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. The ability to cause this kind of disruption cannot get overlooked by the Jags. It's time to banish the Derrick Harvey memories. Some help for Blaine Gabbert is probably also required. But rather than rip it up and start again, a veteran QB through free agency seems a more plausible option.
The Panthers are rapidly improving but still haven't managed to find someone to stuff the run up the middle. Brockers comes with bags of experience from the SEC. He has huge upside for someone so young.
The Fins owners want to make a splash this season and could, if they don't get one via free agency, be in the RGIII stakes. Assuming they get one, then adding stud RB Richardson would be too tempting an option to pair with Reggie Bush and bring some star power to a town where of late, it's all been about the Heat.
A year after getting Dareus, the Bills still need to upgrade defensively. They've never found a legit pass rusher, but Upshaw is arguably the premier rusher in this year's class. What he lacks in pure explosiveness, he makes up for with the relentless way he plays.
11 – Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Martin – OT - Stanford
You think that the Chiefs will remain committed to the Matt Cassell project. In which case they have to look to protect him that bit more. Martin comes from that stellar line at Stanford, and will immediately provide an upgrade at right tackle.
12 – Seattle Seahawks – Devon Still – DT – Penn State
The Seahawks are another of the team's likely fishing in the Quarterback pond this off-season. Again, assuming they don't move up the board then tackle is a position of need. Still provides the potential to rush the passer up the middle, something the Hawks were missing in 2010.
13 – Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro – OG - Stanford
Another of the line that protected Andrew Luck for years. DeCastro has potential to play in this league for the next fifteen years and will immediately improve the Cardinals line.
It's no secret that the Cowboys desperately need help in the secondary. They'd love Claiborne to drop to them, but they will likely have to choose between Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins. Both have question marks over their character. But Kirkpatrick's range and experience at the top level has to be strong consideration for Jerry Jones.
15 – Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly – LB – Boston College
Only avid NFL fans could name one or more of the Eagles linebackers from last season. It's a huge position of need, and Kuechly is a tackling machine which could help this team start taking steps towards being what we all thought they would be back in September.
16 – New York Jets – Melvin Ingram – OLB/DE – South Carolina
The Jets need to improve their pass rush if they are to get back to the level they had achieved before last season. Ingram offers the potential to become their premier pass rusher, and has the flexibility that someone like Rex Ryan will love scheming for. They could also look at wide receiver, given the questions over Santonio Holmes' attitude.
17 – Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) – Nick Perry – DE - USC
The first of the two Carson Palmer picks from the Raiders. The Bengals have a history of taking USC defensive players and Perry would bolster an already decent line. They could also look into their secondary but with the draft having fallen the way it has right now, they can take a chance of having a suitable option waiting for them at #21.
18 – San Diego Chargers – Whitney Mercilus – OLB - Illinois
After wafting and missing on Larry English, the Chargers need a pass rusher more than ever. Mercilus is arguably the most explosive pass rusher in the draft, with 16 sacks, 22.5 tackles for loss and nine forced fumbles in 2010. A wide receiver could also be considered to help out Philip Rivers, in the wake of Vincent Jackson's testing of free agency and Malcolm Floyd's career long inconsistency.
19 – Chicago Bears – Alshon Jeffrey – WR – South Carolina
The Bears will be happy if Jeffrey isn't taken by the Chargers. They've needed a legitimate number one receiver for years and Jay Cutler showed flashes with sub-standard talent last year, what he could do. Jeffrey is physical, strong and a big-time playmaker of the kind required in the Windy City.
20 – Tennessee Titans – Pete Conz – C - Wisconsin
Mike Munchak was not impressed with his offensive line last season, and he should know. Conz can come in and help out right away with lots of experience at a school noted for its linemen.
Jonathan Joseph is coming off major surgery and the Bengals need to look to the future in the secondary. Dennard didn't set the world alight at the Senior Bowl but in the right system, he can bring a lot to this team.
And after getting RGIII, what better for the Browns than to reunite the Baylor tandem that lit up the Big XII last season.
23 – Detroit Lions – Mike Adams – OT – Ohio State
The Lions saw what could happen if Matthew Stafford completes a season healthily. However, Jeff Backus isn't getting any younger and they need to start to look to protecting Stafford for the next decade. Adams is a little inconsistent, but in the right environment could be as good as any tackle in this year's class.
With Casey Hampton coming off surgery, the Steelers need to get younger along the line. There are some character concerns with Poe, but Mike Tomlin's dressing room is the place for this young man to mature.
25 – Denver Broncos – Lamar Miller – RB - Miami
Tim Tebow, with a full off-season under his belt should get to start the season under centre. But the Broncos need to give this offence the chance to score more points. Willis McGahee had a strong season, but Miller offers a great compliment with his big-play ability.
The Texans are in an enviable position. Years of top picks have given them young talent across the board. If Matt Schaub comes back healthily they are a team to watch this year. But injury concerns in 2010 showed how much they rely on Andre Johnson. Having a quality play-maker opposite Johnson, not only takes pressure off #80, but opens up this offence even more.
27 – New England Patriots (from New Orleans) – Janoris Jenkins – CB – North Alabama
The Patriots need to improve in the secondary. Jenkins is a stud. But multiple arrests cost him his spot at Florida and could cost him money. However, his ability is one that will tempt Belichick to take him under his wing. The upside is considerable.
28 – Green Bay Packers – Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State
The Packers have to look to stop their points against totals in 2011 if they are to go deep into the post-season. Cox adds a dimension as a pass rush but needs work against the run. Stephon Gilmore out of South Carolina could also get a look as Mike McCarthy looks to improve the defence.
There's no point getting away from the fact that Ray Lewis is getting older. Burfict is an explosive, violent player who roams the middle of the field. Sound familiar? A year or two under Lewis would do this player the world of good.
30 – San Francisco 49ers – Mark Barron – S – Alabama
Barron's strength, intelligence and versatility will appeal to Fangio and Harbaugh. They could also look at bolstering the offensive weapon side of the ball with a receiver.
31 – New England Patriots – Stephon Gilmore – CB – South Carolina
It might seem a bit extreme for the Patriots to use two first rounders on cornerbacks, but this team was second from last in yards given up last year. They simply have to stop that. Gilmore's range would complement the potential lockdown corner in Jenkins.
32 – New York Giants – Coby Fleener – TE – Stanford
The reigning champions lacked a big-time addition from the tight end spot. Beckum and Ballard did well but injuries mean the Giants will have to address this position. Fleener was a major target for Andrew Luck at Stanford and could be an upgrade for Eli Manning. Don't be surprised if the Giants do what they do best, and build from the trenches by adding a strong young offensive lineman.
I'll be very surprised if after he blows everyone away at the Combine, Griffin lasts this long. If he does, then Holmgren and Shurmur must be clapping and squealing with delight. The Browns have lacked a franchise QB and playmakers for far too long and Griffin is all these rolled into one.