A Long Way From Lambeau
Sharp-eyed fans take note
by Mark Lyne-Austen
6/2/2010
The Super Bowl is upon us. Hundreds of millions globally will be tuned in and analysis of everything is eagerly devoured in the lead-up. The competing narratives of the current player aiming to be recognised as the greatest in the form of Peyton Manning vs the city and team on the brink of a glorious redemption will make this year's version of the greatest of games as significant as it always is. Sharp-eyed football fans will have noted most of the variables, pondered most of the likely events and outcomes but while viewing from a long way away keep in mind some of these crucial factors:
Referee Scott Green
Most should remember Scott Green's last appearance in the NFL. It resulted in the highest scoring playoff game of all time as the Arizona Cardinals out-duelled the Green Bay Packers 41-34. While supporters of both of those sides will have been very surprised to see Green grade out highly enough to secure a spot in the Super Bowl, he is a man under significant pressure. That Wildcard Round game was by all accounts except that of outgoing head of referees Mike Pereira poorly officiated. Still, that is not the reason Green and the crew will be under pressure – they will be scrutinised because what they allow and clamp down on will be a factor in this game.
We all remember the New England Patriots changing the face of the NFL with their exploitation of lax interpretations of the defensive contact rule. All great teams and players exploit the rules to their fullest extent and the Indianapolis Colts are the very best at exploiting the changes the Patriots play led to. Watch very carefully for Colts receivers on crossing routes as they are the best the NFL has to offer in blocking downfield before the pass. Last time Green was on the field, physical play by the receivers was significantly rewarded.
Green is also under pressure because of what happened to Brett Favre in the NFC Championship Game. Gregg Williams, defensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints has ratcheted up the hostility by threatening bodily harm on Peyton Manning. Green and the crew are under an enormous weight of pressure to not allow some of the hitting on the passer that the Saints inflicted against the Minnesota Vikings. This applies as much to the balletic dervishes at defensive end for the Colts when they attack Drew Brees as it does for any Saints blitz pressure.
Gregg Williams vs Peyton Manning & Jeff Saturday
Gregg Williams is all about pressure. He is about getting to the quarterback and forcing mistakes. That means blitz as New Orleans is not noted for defensive line dominance. However, with all the bluster and the much-hyped Favre flattening it probably does not mean the pass rush is on all the time. For one, Peyton does not get hit. Manning knows that he is better off in most circumstances by flopping to the floor and giving up a drive than he is taking blows that might affect his play later on. If this is a close game there will be more drives to come for Manning to return. He also does not get hit because the Indianapolis offense is built on throwing short.
Williams knows this about Manning and about the offense he faces and his bravado serves to fire up his players but also to set expectations in the Indianapolis mindset. Jeff Saturday is the key player to counter whatever the Saints D has to offer. Saturday's line calls must be able to spot those times that the blitz is real but as important the calls will have to be able to adapt. Against the New York Jets in the AFC Championship, the offensive line of the Colts were excellent. They probably do not need to be quite as good again but if the game is the shoot-out most predict, the line need to be on form throughout.
Halftime
No NFL game has as long a halftime break as the Super Bowl. Mostly this is to allow for a musical “spectacular” that is a great time for viewers to give square eyes a rest. The weather forecast seems to be good with rain not expected. That will help the field in Miami because halftime often gives a surface some pounding. The various rigs that are needed to showcase The Who and the hundreds of extras will leave their mark. Whether The Who do so as well might depend on expectations. Halftime at the Super Bowl has been a dismal affair for years though the size of Pete Townsend's ego is always worth a look.
In the part of the experience that matters, halftime is a long way from the end of the game. The Colts are noted masters of the comeback and for good reason. The Colts are adept at unlocking defenses later on in the game, partly as a result of defense being more physically demanding than offense, but mostly because there are only a limited number of plays that a D can bring from each formation. Adjusting after the break has been a hallmark of the Colts but the Saints put in huge performances late on to win games this season. Whichever team is ahead at the half will likely still need to win at least one of the remaining quarters.
Rushing
These are two teams famed for their passing offense yet New Orleans ranked 6th during the regular season for rushing yards. There is a reason for that – Drew Brees performed so well that defenses over-played the pass. The Saints rushing numbers were bolstered by 14 runs of 20+ yards, good for 7th in that category during 2009. The difference between the Saints and Colts run games though comes down primarily to attempts. New Orleans ran 102 more times than Indianapolis during the regular season and it is attempts that matter in the Super Bowl. Clearly rushing attempts are up when a team has a winning position in-hand so to some extent winners rush more rather than rushers win more but just trying to run the ball is enough for an elite passing team to gain an edge.
No team perfects the art of running just enough like the Colts. Finishing the regular season having run the ball just one more time than the last ranked Arizona Cardinals, the Colts rushing attack is primarily misdirection. The play action motion is designed to open tiny holes in the short pass game that Indy relies on and the stretch run deliberately forces defenders to maintain discipline rather than attack receiver routes. However, in the red zone the Colts run the ball much more than they seem to. 16 times a runner crossed the goal line during the regular season. For New Orleans, the red zone is an equal opportunities part of the field, 21 scorers came on the ground.
New Orleans also moves the chains in the run game fairly well. 115 times they picked up a first down on a rush. The Colts just do not do this. Their 69 first downs rushing ranks dead last in the NFL. For the Colts, a first down comes from a pass. Indianapolis is very patient and they will run the ball knowing that they intend merely to keep the defense off the pass rush even if it means one less passing down to pick up their 10 yards.
On paper, Super Bowl XLIV looks set to be close. In what may be the last championship of the current salary cap era should labor talks fail, it will be one to recall no matter what happens.
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