A Long Way From Lambeau
QBs vs D
by Mark Lyne-Austen
14/1/2010
The NFL is a quarterback's league. The game is designed to showcasing the gaudy passing statistics that the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals threw out in the Wildcard Round. This is what the NFL fanbase seems to expect as the aerial bombardment of the college game seeps into the league. The AFC though has given us a test of whether this league really does belong to the passers alone and all the cards are stacked in the QB's favour this time.
Round two of the AFC playoffs – the Divisional Playoffs – matches up two of the very top quarterbacks in the game against teams built with an entirely different philosophy. The New York Jets are the number one defense in football. They feature the exceptional coverage skills of Darrelle Revis and despite playing the last quarter of the season key defensive tackle Kris Jenkins are a stopping force to be reckoned with. The Baltimore Ravens wanted to be a pass happy team in 2009 but getting back to their defensive roots saw them blow apart the New England Patriots offense as badly as any team has to the team of the decade in the first quarter of the Wildcard matchup.
Passing may be the most appealing aesthetic to most fans and is apparently what drives attendance and purchasing but for those of us who prefer to see a wide receiver take a jarring hit than run a beautiful route, the AFC is about to showcase a pivotal moment. The odds are heavily stacked in the offenses favour and not just because the rules favour the pass over anything else. The Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers are arguably the two best teams in football. Loaded with tremendous talent on offense in particular, they should win and win comfortably against their more defensive rivals.
While the Colts and Chargers both feature extraordinary quarterbacks, their success is based on high quality offensive line play and a couple of elite receivers. For the Colts, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. For the Chargers Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. There are no receivers on the Ravens or Jets squads that compare favourably. Wayne is strong and fast. He might be described in the same category as Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers once was were he not on the receiving end of Peyton Manning's passing. Vincent Jackson is tall and fast. There are hardly any players in the NFL who can out-jump Jackson to the ball. Gates and Clark are the number 1 and 2 of pass catching tight ends in the league.
These are great offenses and they are run by two of the best in the business in the form of Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. Their offensive lines are formidable and they should win. Everything is stacked in their favour when compared to the offenses of the Ravens and the Jets. The two home teams also boast decent if not elite D of their own. It is with good reason that these are the top seeds in the AFC.
So there is no chance for the visitors then? If the NFL is truly a quarterback's league then the AFC Divisional Playoffs will provide further evidence because everything is stacked in the passer's favour this time round. A great passer on a bad team might raise their side's overall level of play but a great passer on a team that should win comfortably must surely win. Home teams win around two times in three in this round. There can be no other result under these circumstances than a Colts and Chargers game in the Conference Championship.
Still, the Ravens and the Jets are here. Teams that run the ball and play good defense are not typically the top seeds but these squads have made it this far. The Ravens of course have won as many road playoff games during this decade as any team in a decade during NFL history. That is probably because there were fewer playoff games prior to expansions in 1978 and 1990 so it is a nice stat if somewhat meaningless. What they do have though is a fearsome rushing attack and a defense that crushed the New England Patriots in the first quarter of the Wildcard Round.
The likeminded New York Jets are the top rushing team in all of football, averaging over 172 yards a game. The old adage was that a team built to run the ball and play good D was a team built to win in the post-season. The new adage is that this is a quarterback's league and a great QB trumps everything else. The AFC Divisional Round will give teams that should be significant underdogs a chance to show whether there are any flaws in the quarterback superiority theory not just because the home teams normally win, or because their quarterbacks are better, but because these games should not even be close.
The Packers and Cardinals gave a great account of why the pass can beat the defense. The Packers were the No 2 ranked defense in the NFL but were absolutely shredded by Kurt Warner and friends. This shredding came despite star wideout Larry Fitzgerald being covered mostly by the best defensive player in the NFL in Charles Woodson. The two sets of evidence from that game were the wide open receivers in the middle of the field and the lopsided rules on contact downfield.
Rightly, the Packers should not complain about the rules. Everyone plays by the same set and the Cardinals were just better on a day of unbelievable passing. The lopsidedness of the rules should not reflect on terrible calls around the line of scrimmage but should focus on the contact downfield. A defensive player making contact with an eligible receiver past five yards yields up an automatic first down. An offensive player making illegal contact with a defender costs his team 10 yards. The risk though is on the defensive side of the ball. A catcher who runs into a defender and knocks him down as Larry Fitzgerald did on two occasions to Charles Woodson has a fantastic chance at a touchdown on the play and there is little the defense can do. Such is the way of things because this is a quarterback's league.
The other and more pertinent set of evidence is the schematic problems the defense faced. The Packers defensive revival under coordinator Dom Capers ended spectacularly because the Cardinals had found a weakness. A defensive scheme needs only one hole that it cannot cover and the pass wins. All the pass rushing talents of Clay Matthews count for nothing if there is an open receiver immediately. While the Pack should have adjusted and the Cardinals offense lauded for their great play, one weakness exposed what had generally been a solid defense and all was lost.
Defensive teams have it all to do to win. The Ravens and the Jets are really up against it but if either comes close given the odds they match up against, maybe this weekend could be a moment that brings back a belief in the old values of defense in the face of the new values of the superior quarterback.
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