A Long Way From Lambeau
By The Time I Get To Arizona
by Mark Lyne-Austen
13/1/2009
Momentum is the complicated force apparently responsible for success in the NFL at this time of year. With high seeded teams bounced out of the playoffs early, momentum is the rallying cry of victorious teams. It is not that simple. This year has been unusual in the success being carried over from the wildcard round. With the 4th and 6th seeds clashing in the NFC and 2 playing 6 in the AFC the underdog has been having its day.
 Momentum is made up of three constituent parts – health, familiarity, and confidence. The most significant part is health. Of the remaining teams the small injury list has been crucial. The Arizona Cardinals have just three players on injured reserve. So you probably know Clark Haggans the former Pittsburgh Steeler but outside of the dirty birds fans, there cannot be many who would claim Ali Highsmith or Scott Peters were likely to influence the destiny of this year's title. Not being injured has been huge for the team. While receiver Anquan Boldin could not go against the Carolina Panthers, the team still had star Larry Fitzgerald to call on.
Teams that have had success early but tailed off late are often dealing with key injuries to star players. Jason Tuck in New York and Albert Haynesworth of the Tennessee Titans both missed time late on due to health complaints and neither was at their best this past weekend. The impact of injury matters more to some of the top teams this year because their strength lies on the Defensive Line – a position far more likely to pick up injury than Quarterback for instance. With the Super Bowl XLII New York Giants as the blueprint, teams with great D-Lines are more likely to have success in this period of the NFL but they also run a greater risk of that strength being weakened by injury.
The second element to momentum is familiarity. Early on teams can put together unexpected looks that yield success, can use their healthy playmakers in just the way they designed. Later on, teams can adapt. The Wildcat offense of the Miami Dolphins surprised the New England Patriots and was the eventual difference between Miami and New England making the post-season thanks to their week 3 matchup. Late in the year, that same scheme had less effect especially once the Baltimore Raven's run blitzing D showed how to stop it. That Baltimore had crushed the wildcat so effectively meant the Miami Dolphins lost confidence in their ability to run plays out of that formation.
The confidence element of momentum is the third and least significant. When things are going well, players are much less likely to over-compensate and make mistakes by trying to make their colleague's play for them. LenDale White's red zone fumble against Baltimore was a classic case – attempting to overcompensate for the loss to injury of star back Chris Johnson. Confidence is the most nebulous of the momentum element's in that talent and injury still play a far bigger role in a team's chances. Confidence, the closest real world proxy to the theoretical influence of momentum is the least important element.
A significant element that often shows up at this time of year is parity. That 6th seeds have won the Super Bowl twice in the past three years is in part a sign of the factors that make up momentum but is mostly an indication of how close NFL teams are to one another. The difference between good and great sides is tiny. Perhaps the most interesting success story is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards are interesting because it is amazing to see such a dreadful franchise have its most successful season in over 60 years. They are more interesting though because they are playing the blueprint laid out by the Indianapolis Colts.
 The Colts headed into the post season following the 2006 regular season on the back of their excellent passing game and most definitely not on their run defense, ranked last in the NFL. Coming up against consecutive power running attacks from Kansas City and Baltimore, Indianapolis threw everything on D at the run. It worked. Arizona are now following that same path. Having snuffed out the power O of the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers, the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at the title.
Like the Colts before them, Arizona are now at home to a more heavily favoured side who can pass the ball effectively to a range of targets. Indianapolis narrowly squeezed by New England 3 years ago and Arizona could still do the same.
The success of both the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles comes from the very opposite ends of the supposed momentum spectrum. The Eagles made it through the regular season only thanks to meltdowns from the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In truth, neither of those meltdown sides was as strong as their early season performances had suggested. Arizona however lost and lost badly late in the season so they should have been entirely without momentum if momentum were merely a reflection of confidence.
That Arizona are still alive this year is not just surprising because of their historical ineptitude but also because they do not play the kind of football that has driven success this season. Other than the Cardinals, only Indianapolis of the other playoff qualifiers could unequivocally be classed as an offense first team. Even Philadelphia with their notoriously pass happy play calling rode their defense and most particularly their defensive line through December and January.
If the Cardinals can do what seemed impossible and buck their own history and the tendency towards defensive power this season, and their terrible performances in December, it will be an achievement never to be forgotten.
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