A Long Way From Lambeau
Long Road Likely for #1 Selection
by Mark Lyne-Austen
8/4/2008
 
Bill Parcells and the Miami Dolphins are a little over two weeks away from cashing in the first overall pick that the South Florida side earned through being the worst team in the NFL last season. Since Parcells arrived in December, speculation has mounted on just what the team will do at the top of the draft. Consensus seems to be growing that the pick will be lavished on a stud lineman, probably either Jake or Chris Long.
 
The favourite selection at the moment is Chris Long, the defensive end out of Virginia. If Chris does hear his name called first on the 26th, he will be the third DE since 2000 to have been taken first overall. If the Long going first is Jake, the offensive tackle from Michigan, he would be the first O-lineman since Orlando Pace went to St Louis in 1997 en route to a Super Bowl championship four years later. Pace himself was a real rarity at the top spot, the previous offensive tackle taken that high being Hall of Famer Ron Yary heading to the Vikings.
 
Part of the reason for it being so unusual that a lineman is selected first overall is because recent history has been dominated by quarterbacks. Since Orlando Pace was drafted in 1997, 8 of the 10 first overall picks have been signal callers. Never before has a ten year stretch been so thoroughly controlled by one position.
 
Quarterbacks have been chosen first ostensibly because they play the most important position in the game, controlling their offense and making the crucial decisions that ultimately make the difference between victory and defeat. It would make sense then that the QB is much coveted at the very top.
 
Another alluring factor for taking a QB is the glamour they are associated with. No other position in sports is as integral to a team's image and more iconic for it's fanbase than the NFL QB. For a struggling team, nothing else has as much of an impact on supporter morale as a potential superstar calling the shots under center.
 
Even with the sparkle of being selected first, a QB or any other player does not guarantee glory. Of the last ten No 1 selections, only two hold Super Bowl rings – and they are both named Manning. Even at the most important position on the field, the player taken first is still just one player. A team owning that selection will have performed so poorly in the previous year that it would be unreasonable to expect even a future Hall of Famer to turn them around quickly.
 
Future Hall of Famers are certainly to be found at the very top of the draft but it is far from a guarantee. In the last 20 years, a grand total of 4 of those players have been enshrined in Canton. Since the first Draft in 1936, only 12 players have been selected first overall and gone on to complete a Hall of Fame career though it would be fair to add a couple of those still in the game or too recently retired to the contenders list.
 
Someone who has been in the game as long as Parcells will know that history shows one player will not be enough to turn his team into winners right now. An option might be to trade out of the position but that is a rare treat indeed. While the infamous Manning-Rivers trade in 2004 grabbed headlines and reminded the NFL that trading out of the top spot can happen, it does not take place routinely. Tampa Bay may have traded away the right to the best player around twice but most teams stay where they are and take the prospect they assess to be their future star.
 
A barrier to trade is the cost to the team trading up. The most obvious cost is in the draft picks given up. During the Manning-Rivers trade, the cost to the New York Giants was their 4th overall selection and a third rounder, and their first and fifth round picks the next year. Some teams may be willing to part with such a heavy load and in the case of the Giants, few can now argue even though many did along the way.
 
The second barrier is the risk. In making such a bold move, the team moving up have to be confident that they have identified a great player while the team moving out will equally have to be sure that the player is not so great that it would be worth holding onto him for themselves. Taking such a gamble ties in the coaching staff to the players involved and leaves little room for manoeuvring should the player not fulfil expectations. Even more than sticking by a high drafted player, trading up for one commits the franchise to that guy for the remainder of his career.
 
The third barrier to trade is the salary cost of the No 1 pick. The Oakland Raiders forked out an incredible $31.5m guaranteed, up to $68m over 6 years for JaMarcus Russell. The former Louisiana State standout was not a consensus first selection but the Raiders liked what they saw. They liked it enough that their $109m salary cap could devote a significant chunk to their man.
 
The salary of the first overall selection is now astronomical, dwarfing many veteran stars. With quite a few misses in the history of No 1s, $31.5m is an awful lot to guarantee. The escalation of salary at the very top has been supported by an expanded salary cap but the risk now is greater than ever in the amount that an untested player will earn as a proportion of the team's total allowance.
 
Even if a player is selected first, it is no guarantee that they will turn out for that side. While extremely rare (Bo Jackson, 1986) that they will not show at all, JaMarcus Russell illustrated how difficult the top spot can be with a holdout. The year before, consensus No 1 Reggie Bush did not go first as the Houston Texans instead made their deal with defensive end Mario Williams before they announced their selection. Confirming the relatively productive Williams was in retrospect a wise move despite the hype surrounding Bush who would not have been able to confirm his signature on a monetary contract beforehand.
 
So holding the No 1 spot may be a boon but it is not one to be handled lightly. Success is nowhere near as guaranteed as the typically long-suffering fanbase deserve, the player themselves will demand a massive payout, and even if the Dolphins wanted to trade out and buy more picks to fill out a weak squad the chances of finding a buyer are slim.