The Football Diner Big Top 5
Bold Predictions For '09
by Jody Jamieson
5/9/2009
Last year my predictions were interesting to say the least. The Giants to miss the playoffs was almost as crazy as thinking the Browns would win the AFC North. However, I called Favre’s unretirement pretty much the second he retired and also took the Titans to win the AFC South, so not all was lost. Let’s have another bash.
The beauty of the NFL is its wild unpredictability. You never know what’s going to happen. Part of that is injuries. Part of that is parity. But so many things go into winning and losing a football game that when you go out on a limb, you set yourself up for a major fall.
Time for my major fall.
In the last Top Fives before the 2009 NFL season kicks off, I set myself up for embarrassment with 5 bold predictions for the new season. If all of these come off, then the NFL is officially mental.
5. San Francisco wins the NFC West
This isn’t a huge stretch, but would still be a surprise. Arizona are the defending NFC Champs and Seattle will be better. In the case of Arizona, a lot of teams who lose the Super Bowl go on to have a real letdown the next season. Teams like the Patriots, Bears and Eagles have failed to get back after losing the big one, so forgive me for not expecting it to be the Arizona Cardinals who buck the trend.
I love what the Niners have been doing. Mike Singletary had them playing good football down the stretch last year and Shaun Hill is San Fran’s Kerry Collins. No flash but all business. They can follow the Titans blueprint from last year by running the ball effectively and playing solid defense. I expect a 10-6 season and an NFC West crown.
4. Chicago Bears won’t be playing on wildcard weekend...
...not because they won’t make the playoffs, but because they’ll have a first round bye. Look at what the Bears have done with Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton running the show. They still have a top tier defense, and after adding Matt Forte in 2008, they’ve gone and added a franchise quarterback. The Bears lack a legitimate receiver, but Cutler and Earl Bennett ran amok at Vanderbilt, and look for the connection to come up big this year.
The signing of Orlando Pace upgrades a good, but not great offensive line. The additions of Jarron Gilbert and DJ Moore in the draft and veterans Rod Hood and Pisa Tinoisamoa add excellent depth to the Bears defense. There’s a lot to like in Chicago, and while I’m not having the winning the NFC or the Super Bowl just yet, with their schedule, a 12-4 season could be in the wings.
3. Tampa Bay and Denver won’t win more than 4 games combined
I think both are in danger of going 2-14, and for Tampa that might be a stretch. The only reason I have Denver winning 2 or 3 games is they play Kansas City and Oakland 4 times. They also get to host Cleveland in Week 2 which might end in a tie. I actually find it hard to pick 2 wins for Tampa. Other than their 6 tough games in the division, they get the NFC and AFC East.
I like to slate Kyle Orton but I actually think he’s ok. He’ll need to make sure he’s 100% for the new season as Denver absolutely cannot go into the new season with Tom Brandstater at QB. I think their defense is going to be just as woeful in 2009 as it was last year, and offensively swapping Jay Cutler for Orton is an obvious downgrade. I like the addition of Knowshon Moreno as a player, but with their defensive problems and their ability to churn out backs over the years the pick surprised me. Obviously the system has changed with the change of Head Coach, so despite all the injuries they had last year may not be any better this year running the ball. Brandon Marshall has gone from Pro Bowl talent to pathetic diva. Denver have made too many changes, and not many of them for the better. Sticking my neck out, I think they’re going 3-13 with wins over Cleveland, Kansas City and Oakland.
The Bucs are in full rebuild mode. Jeff Garcia, Derrick Brooks, Warrick Dunn, Joey Galloway and Cato June are all gone. Monte Kiffin is in college with Tennessee, and they have a rookie head coach. I have no problem with what they are doing as it was time to rebuild and get younger, but 2009 is a complete write off. Now see their schedule. Cowboys, @ Bills, Giants, @ Redskins, @ Eagles, Panthers, Patriots (Wembley), Packers, @ Dolphins, Saints, @ Falcons, @ Panthers, Jets, @Seahawks, @ Saints, Falcons.
They might beat the Jets. They might beat the Packers. They might even win at Seattle or Buffalo. I’ll give them a win over the Jets, and a 1-15 season. Rebuilding is the right thing to do, but 2009 could be ugly.
2. The Bengals are making the playoffs
I considered predicting they’d win the AFC North, but after my Cleveland pick last year I’m understandably a little more conservative. And anyway the Steelers are a better team. I think the Wildcard race in the AFC will be between 4 teams. Indianapolis, Houston, Baltimore and Cincinnati. Houston are ready to be a playoff team, but the competition is maybe a little too strong, and don’t underestimate the loss of Rex Ryan in Baltimore. Don’t be surprised to see the Texans, Ravens and Bengals posting 9-7 records.
The Bengals defense was much better than most gave it credit for last year, and they added Rey Maualuga who will start, and Michael Johnson who can be a great situational pass rusher. I found it amazing that the Bengals had a great Draft weekend, and I found it even more amazing that they still had a good draft weekend despite the Andre Smith fiasco. The offensive line is a worry which can’t be ignored, but I do love Jonathan Luigs replacing Eric Ghiacuic at center. Carson Palmer is back and Laveranues Coles isn’t a big downgrade from Houshmandzadeh. If Chase Coffman can have a decent rookie year at tight end, the offensive can be very good. If the defense has another good year then the Bengals can take the 6th seed with a 9-7 record.
1. Okay, here’s the full prediction table, feel free to mock....
NFC
1. Bears (12-4)
2. Eagles (11-5)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. 49ers (10-6)
5. Saints (9-7)
6. Giants (9-7)
Wildcard – Falcons over Giants, Saints over 49ers
Divisional – Bears over 49ers, Eagles over Saints
NFC Championship – Eagles over Bears
AFC
1. Steelers (13-3)
2. Patriots (12-4)
3. Chargers (12-4)
4. Titans (10-6)
5. Colts (10-6)
6. Bengals (9-7)
Wildcard – Chargers over Bengals, Colts over Titans
Divisional – Colts over Steelers, Patriots over Chargers
AFC Championship – Patriots over Colts
Super Bowl – Patriots over Eagles
I think the Colts may start poorly with trips to Miami, Arizona and Tennessee in their first 5 games. I think they’re too good to keep down though and can surge after a tough start. If they get hot, they can beat anyone. Winning in Pittsburgh in January is a tough ask of anyone, but Peyton and the Colts can find a way. I do think the Eagles have the potential to melt down this year with the Vick passing and the death of Jim Johnson. But I have faith in their ability to put it all together and go all the way in the NFC before getting knocked off by a Patriots team who never quite got their chance at revenge after 16-0 and not winning it all.
And Finally...
The Michael Crabtree situation has become an absolute farce and I’m going to put the potential outcome in very simple terms. If Crabtree has been offered $20 million guaranteed and ultimately doesn’t sign, there is absolutely no chance that he’ll come close to $20 million guaranteed after he gets drafted again in 2010. It’s that simple. In business terms it may be a nice negotiating tool to threaten to re-enter the Draft in 2010, but if San Francisco go along with it and let him do just that, then no-one wins. The Niners waste the 10th pick in the Draft while Michael Crabtree turns down $20 million because he thinks he deserves more, only to end up getting nowhere near that amount unless he shines and gets it in about 2014.
Incidentally, I hope Deion Sanders never ever considers a career in politics because his spin doctor tactics on Total Access trying to justify this whole situation struck me as a father arguing that his hapless son should be the starting quarterback in Pop Warner. I like Sanders on TV, but this was cringe worthy.
This has become a mess that Crabtree can’t win unless the 49ers completely cave in. It’s gotten to the stage now that I hope Crabtree loses this stand-off rather than the 49ers win it. Until the NFL can reach an agreement to sort the rookie salaries, teams shouldn’t have to be bullied into big contracts for unproven talent who may never amount to anything. Crabtree is by no means that “can’t miss prospect” who comes along every now and then. There are plenty of question marks, and for a guy to demand top 5 money when he was the 10th overall pick is just ludicrous.
Shut up and sign.
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