The Football Diner Big Top 5
AFC Post Season Primer
by Jody Jamieson
14/11/2007
 
With the play-off picture starting to take shape in both conferences, there are a few teams who are all but guaranteed a shot come January. Only a miracle will stop New England, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh making the post season in the AFC, and in the NFC Green Bay and Dallas are the two teams who should make it comfortably. There are those teams sitting around the edges that still have some work to do. Next week I'll focus of the NFC, but for this weeks Top Fives those teams who are just above .500 in the AFC will be focused on and their chances evaluated.
 
5. Buffalo Bills
 
After starting the season horribly, and looking like having their last chance snuffed out by Dallas in the Monday Might Meltdown, the Bills have strung together 4 wins and look in reasonable for a late run at the play-offs. Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch is having an excellent year, and Lee Evans has come to life in the past few games like he always seems to do around this time of year. Trent Edwards looked impressive when he was in and is probably the QB of the future, but J.P. Losman in my opinion gives Buffalo the best chance to win right now. The Bills are 5-4 and if they hadn't combusted against Dallas and lost to a last second field goal against Denver way back in Week 1, they could be in a great position. The biggest surprise has been the defense who despite probably being the most banged up defense in the league (apart from possibly the Bengals) are still making plays and giving the offense the chance to win. Can these guys hold out for the next seven weeks and still get it done? This Sunday night they face the New England Patriots coming off a bye week, so the smart money wouldn't be on them going 6-4, but they've surpassed all expectation thus far. Dick Jauron is winning admirers with the way he has his team playing.
 
Key Men - If Lee Evans can continue his habit of getting red hot in the second half of the season, then the Bills will always have a chance. Team defense will probably determine whether they can challenge or not. If Marshawn Lynch can keep doing what he's doing then it should open up the passing game for Losman.
 
Pretenders or Contenders? - I'd still have to go with pretenders. The AFC Wildcard race may be a little too competitive with Jacksonville, Tennessee and Cleveland around they probably won't be able to do it. They've rebounded well from a lot of early setbacks and have done better than expected thus far, but making the play-offs will probably be a step too far. They'll probably finish either 8-8, or even 7-9, when considering the injuries they've had, there's no shame in that.
 
4. Tennessee Titans
 
These guys are really tough to evaluate. With Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch on the defensive line they're always going to be dangerous, and LenDale White is running the ball really well now. The one guy who is disappointing me though is Vince Young. What do you do with him right now? Maybe I'm taking the "It's easier to coach from the living room" approach I talked about last week, but with every passing week I feel that Kerry Collins may represent their best chance of making the play-offs. Young did pass ok this week in terms of yardage, but 2 INT's and a fumble gave the Jaguars the ball in great positions and really didn't help their cause. It may not be the best move to bench their QB of the future from a confidence point of view, but I've never liked rookies being given the keys to the offense so early. Young was in last year in September which I always think is too early. I still think Young can be an excellent player but I still have my doubts about his ability to get it done right now. It doesn't help that he's hardly spoiled with great receivers. Next season will be big for Vince Young and I wouldn't rate him too highly or harshly on 07. I just feel that he should sit right now and keep learning the offense.
 
Key Men - Vince Young. At the end of the day after all I've said, I still think he'll keep his place, and he can't keep relying on the defense to play great every week. He's got to start producing now. They've had a lot of low scoring games this season because of the defense's ability to shut the opposition down, but the passing game hasn't got going. LenDale White probably represents Tennessee's best chance of scoring points. Either him or Rob Bironas.
 
Pretenders or Contenders? - I'm thinking pretenders this year, but watch out for the Titans in 08 if they can keep their team together. This is a good team that only needs one or two additions on offense to challenge next year. This year I'm going for 9-7 for them this year at best, which I suspect won't be enough.
 
3. Cleveland Browns
 
Romeo Crennel must be up there with Mike McCarthy in Green Bay for coach of the year. Derek Anderson is having a wonderful year and he and his favourite target, Braylon Edwards, must be guaranteed for the Pro Bowl. The Derek Anderson story this year has been remarkable after Charlie Frye was given the start in Week 1. After he stank out the place against Pittsburgh and subsequently was traded to Seattle, the fans were screaming for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn to start. An apparent lack of ambition from the Head Coach was rewarded as Anderson threw 5 TD passes in a crazy 51-45 shootout win over the Bengals. He's not looked back and with a little more luck, the Browns would have gotten revenge against the Steelers this week and gone to 6-3. The running game has done it's job most weeks, especially against the Bengals when Jamal Lewis ran for 215 yards. The offensive line has looked after Anderson well and all looks good on that side of the ball.
 
Key Men - I think the offense will keep producing, but they key to the Browns chances of success will come on defense. They gave up 45 points to the Bengals, 31 to the Dolphins and 30 to the Seahawks, but still won these games because of great offensive production. I think the defense has to play better to keep this team in contention.
 
Pretenders or Contenders? - I'm going out on a limb and predicting they are contenders and will take the last wild card place. They'll more than likely have one or two more shootouts and they'll be fun to watch, but I think they can make it. I wouldn't predict them to go deep in the play-offs however, and they'll more than likely lose on wild card weekend, where they might meet the Steelers again. I'd think they'll finish with a 9-7 record at least, and make the post season.
 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
 
Jack Del Rio is another Head Coach who really took a gamble in cutting Byron Leftwich and going with David Garrard as his starter. Things didn't look good as the Jags gave up 282 rushing yards against the Titans in Week 1, and didn't get too much going on offense. A sophmore slump looked well on the cards for the pocket rocket Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn't do much in the first few weeks. Things fell into place nicely for the Jaguars however. Team defense has been a big bright spot ever since Week 2, Garrard played well up until his injury, and Quinn Gray hasn't done too badly in relief. Jones-Drew rediscovered last year's form, and Fred Taylor is still Fred Taylor. My biggest concern when I've seen Jacksonville has been that the offensive line has been quite inconsistent, but when they're good, they are very good. Jacksonville are hardly a spectacular team, but they are solid on offense, defense and special teams, and will always be tough to beat.
 
Key Men - The guys on the line of scrimmage. On offense I've seen them be a little sloppy, and the pass rush has been good but not great. If they can win the line of scrimmage, they have the talent on offense and in their secondary to be a big threat and an extremely tough side to beat.
 
Pretenders or Contenders? - Definite contenders in my mind. They will always be a tough team to predict, but I feel they have gotten themselves into a good position at 6-3, and I can't see them slipping. I'd go with them finishing the season 10-6 which would be enough.
 
1. San Diego Chargers
 
What did I just witness? I thought I'd seen it all this season. Defense plays horribly and they're blown out by Minnesota. Defense plays much better turnover-wise, but still find a way to almost lose and in truth, probably should have lost. Adam Vinatieri with a couple of key misses, with the biggest one down by two with less than 2 minutes to go from chip-shot territory. The Chargers have been wonderfully inconsistent this season. First few games left them 1-3 and they looked poor. Then they won 3 in a row and looked back to their unstoppable best. Then Adrian Peterson ran all over them and destroyed them, and then they get almost nothing on offense, take a 23-0 lead, pick off Peyton Manning 6 times, and still almost lose. Who knows what they've got in store for Jacksonville this week. Maybe Rivers will throw for 400 yards and Tomlinson will fumble the ball 4 times. Norv Turner hasn't totally gotten to grips with what he has at his disposal, and if he does then they should get some of their consistency back.
 
Key Men - Philip Rivers has got to step his game up. I think the defense will more often than not play well, despite Peterson running wild in Week 9. Rivers isn't playing well though and with the offensive line not playing as physically as they did last year, LaDanian Tomlinson isn't performing as well as he was during their three game winning streak. If they can get it going like they did against Oakland and Houston then all should be right in San Diego. Shawne Merriman made one great play against Indianapolis, chasing down Addai from the backfield and bringing him down. That's the type of play he should be making constantly and if he can start doing that like he did in 06, then this should be much better than a slightly over .500 team.
 
Pretenders or Contenders? - Probably contenders, although that is more likely because they play in the AFC West. Stick them in the South and they may finish bottom on this form. They're too good to keep playing like this though in my mind and will step it up. Look for them to finish 10-6 and take the West.
 
So there you go. I'm going for the Chargers, Jaguars and Browns joining the Colts, Patriots and Steelers in the play-offs.
 
Interesting Facts
Is there a more exciting player to watch right now than Antonio Cromartie? After making history last week with a 109 missed-FG return following up a 2 touchdown day against the Texans, he goes on to become the first player in 12 years with three interceptions in the first half of a game. Peyton Manning finally passed Johnny Unitas for most TD passes as a Colt with 291, but his 6 interceptions was also a career high.
 
Elsewhere, Brett Favre had his 6th 300-yard game out of 9 this year, and Ryan Grant became the first running back to rush for 100 yards against the vikings in 07.
 
And finally...
The Green Bay Packers continue to disprove all the doubters by continually winning and winning well. The 34-0 hammering of the Minnesota Vikings must have served as a message that the Packers are the real deal this year. As Brett Favre enters his Indian Summer their early pass heavy offense has been complimented by a good running game, as Ryan Grant looked excellent against the Vikes. One guy who continues to stand out for me is defensive tackle Johnny Jolly. A sixth round draft pick last year who is having an excellent year. Everyone in the media wants to purr over Brett Favre as they always tend to do, but the defense has been great this year and doesn't get the recognition it deserves. Charles Woodson, Al Harris, former Amsterdam Admiral Atari Bigby, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Arron Kampman among others have all been having a great year, and have given Brett Favre the scope to win 8 games out of 9 and lead the Packers to the top of the NFC North.
 
Are they the real deal? Many people are doubting it, but there's not really a part of their game where there is a genuine weakness. Write them off at your peril. It would be very Favre like to retire with a Superbowl appearance after all.