The Football Diner Big Top 5
The Keys to Super Bowl XLIII
by Jody Jamieson
29/1/2009
So if you listen to anyone that has an opinion to voice in the media (especially the writers over at foxsports.com) Arizona are the worst team in Super Bowl history. Obviously, they have a point. Arizona compiled a 9-7 regular season record while going 6-0 in an awful division. Since their tailspin in December, they have racked up 4 impressive wins in a row. Sure, Seattle weren't up to much this year, but in Mike Holmgren's last game as a coach, they couldn't have been more fired up to win a game all season, but the Cardinals took care of them. They then went into the playoffs, where they out dualled Atlanta, destroyed Carolina, and ended up allowing Philadelphia to make the NFC Championship game closer than it really should have been. 4 impressive wins in a row should make the regular season a distant memory, but surprisingly a media who seems to have the memory of a goldfish during the regular season, can't seem to get December out of their minds.
While everyone is trying to find ways to write off Arizona and declare the Pittsburgh Steelers as the champions, when you break down this matchup, it actually sits fairly nicely for the Cardinals. Their defense has stopped the run for the most part and created turnovers in the passing game. and offensively they have perhaps the best weapon in the game right now. Top Fives this week breaks down the key Super Bowl XLIII matchups and explains why Arizona not only have a chance to win it all, but are actually in a great position to become champions.
5. Larry Fitzgerald vs the World
 No-one can cover Fitzgerald. The Steelers could invite 20,000 Terrible Towel wearing fans onto the pitch, Kurt Warner could throw the ball up in the air, and Fitzgerald would probably still make the catch. He's been simply unstoppable. So why is this the number 5 matchup? Well, the reason it takes a lower preference is simply because this is a matchup I think Arizona will win. I would put my house on Fitzgerald having at least 5 grabs, at least 100 yards, and at least 1 touchdown. Well maybe not my house. I'd probably stick a tenner on it instead.
I still think the Steelers biggest defensive vulnerability is their ability to defend the pass on the perimeter. Obviously, when the ball is in the air, and Troy Polamalu is sniffing about, it can also turn into their biggest strength. But if Arizona are going to beat the Steelers, it's going to be with Warner dropping back, getting the ball into his receivers hands, and letting them do the rest.
4. Kurt Warner and his offensive line vs the zone blitz
Kurt Warner is traditionally known as a quarterback who can fall apart when the pressure comes, but against Philadelphia, Warner used the pressure to his advantage. Looking at the stats, you may believe that the Eagles never got close to Warner, but for long chunks of the game, they were getting pressure from all different angles. The difference was offensive coordinator Todd Haley called some excellent plays, and Warner stayed calm and got the ball away quickly, be it away from the blitz, or sometimes right in the face of it. They ran a lot of successful screen passes which had the defense guessing, and more than once gave the Cardinals the opportunity for a huge play in the open field which J.J. Arrington and Tim Hightower didn't always take advantage of until the last few minutes when Hightower went in from 9 yards.
Warner looks better than even in this post season, partly because of the dominance of Larry Fitzgerald, and partly because of the playcalling. But most importantly, Warner looks experienced, calm, and deadly in the pocket. It doesn't matter if he's getting the ball out quick on a slant, or throwing deep. He's been very accurate and effective.
3. Todd Haley vs Dick LeBeau
The Steelers have a great defense. That goes without saying. It's amazing how the Steelers can let so many stars go and then replace them immediately with unknown players who go on to become stars themselves. The Steelers were the number 1 defense in the NFL this season, and that's what Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley has to deal with on Sunday. Haley's offense kept the Eagles guessing for much of the Championship game as the crafty Jim Johnson was out foxed by the young upstart coordinator. Todd Haley may end up head coach of the Chiefs in a couple of weeks, but for one last time, he's got to put together an offensive gameplan to take down another wily old defensive mind.
Now the Eagles and the Steelers have similar defensive philosophies in terms of being blitz heavy, but the Cardinals can't take for granted they're going to see the same looks. Firstly the biggest obvious difference is in the Steelers 3-4 front. What causes offenses problems when they face Pittsburgh is dealing with the 3 down linemen Brett Kiesel, Aaron Smith and big Casey Hampton in the middle. It's a case of pick your poison deciding which of those beasts to double team, and that's before you even think about James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley rushing off the edge from outside linebacker. The Steelers use the zone blitz to perfection, and it's tough to pick up. Haley needs to put Warner is a good position to succeed and try to keep them honest by running the ball. Of course, running is going to be extremely difficult, but they cannot abandon it. Assuming the put the double team on Larry Fitzgerald, it should keep a safety like Troy Polamalu further away from the box, and thus making it easier to run. And if James gets some positive yards on the ground, then the Cardinals can take control. It's going to be extremely difficult, but the Eagles defense was on fire and the Cards scored 32. If they can keep the Steelers off balance they can score.
2. DE's Bertrand Berry and Antonio Smith vs OT's Max Starks and Willie Colon
In regards to the matchup between Cardinals defensive backs against Steelers receivers in the passing game, it's a toss up. Whether or not Hines Ward plays or not, you don't see one unit completely over powering the other. Rod Hood is a big physical corner who can contain Ward to a certain extent, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has the speed to keep up with a streaking Santonio Holmes. The biggest weakness for their pass defense will probably be covering Heath Miller. Miller is a much more dynamic receiver than Philadelphia's Brent Celek, who ran riot in the Championship Game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Miller be the most consistent threat in the passing game. but overall you don't see anything out of the ordinary happening in this matchup. You don't see Roethlisberger throwing into double coverage all day like Jake Delhomme did, nor do you see Ben having a stretch like Donovan McNabb did in the 3rd quarter. Obviously though when it comes down to it, the longer Roethlisberger gets to survey the field, the more likely it is someone will get open.
That's why in the passing game the key matchup for the Cards defense is in getting pressure on the quarterback. Max Starks and Willie Colon are serviceable but beatable tackles. Colon is strong but has looked sluggish at times, and Starks will make mistakes with his footwork. Bertrand Berry and Antonio Smith haven't racked up the stats in the post season, but they didn't give Jake Delhomme any time and rendered Steve Smith anonymous for much of the game, and when it got desperate, he morphed into Brett Favre. In the first half against Philadelphia the Eagles offensive line couldn't contain the Cards defense, and with pressure coming from inside also with Darnell Dockett, it can be really tough to contain. Adrian Wilson also came untouched from the secondary a couple of times and Arizona will looking to do something similar in the Super Bowl.
1. Cardinals front 7 vs Steelers running game
 Of course, if the Steelers can stay balanced and establish the run, it's going to be tough to pin their ears back and get after Roethlisberger. The Steelers won their game against San Diego on the ground as Willie Parker's running kept Pittsburgh in 3rd and manageable and wore out the Chargers defense. Arizona had a lot of success containing the powerful Michael Turner and the elusive Brian Westbrook, but Carolina was a different story. Arizona "held Carolina to only 75 yards rushing" was the line by those in the media pointed out, giving that as a big reason for the Cards success that night. What they fail to note is that this was because Carolina abandoned the run and only called 15 running plays all day. To me, letting the opposition run for 5 yards a carry isn't shutting down the run.
Willie Parker isn't an elite running back, and the Steelers don't have an elite offensive line. But Willie Parker is a home run threat with his speed. He may run 20 times for 20 yards, but if the fail to contain him once and he gets into the open field, it could be curtains. Remember Seattle contained Parker quite well in Super Bowl XL, but one big run was the dagger in the heart and gave Pittsburgh victory. Arizona's run defense struggled in the regular season due to a lack of discipline. Linebackers didn't stay in their lanes and allowed teams to run. The feature of their run defense in the post season has been better gap discipline and better tackling. They need to keep the head, stay with their assignments, and make sure they don't allow Willie Parker to run them into the ground.
To me this is the absolute key for Arizona. If they can't stop the run, they'll lose the game. If they can contain Parker and make Roethlisberger beat them through the air they are in with a great shout.
I'm going with the upset on Sunday. I think the whole Ken Whisenhunt connection is more of the media trying to write something interesting rather than a major factor in the game. For all that Whisenhunt knows the Steelers well, by the same token the Steelers know his tendencies. It's a situation that will probably cancel itself out, despite what you will read over the next few days. The two key offensive players on the day will be Fitzgerald and Parker and I think when it comes down to it the Cardinals can contain Willie Parker, while the Steelers will struggle to contain Larry Fitzgerald.
I have Arizona winning the game 26-20. They're going to have to settle for a few field goals, but I have no doubt they'll be able to move the ball. The problem is getting into the endzone against a tough redzone defense, but I think they can do it a couple of times.
Random Super Bowl Thought
Kurt Warner, Hall of Famer? The discussion will go on and on after this weekend, win or lose, just like it has raged on for the past few years. There is a compelling argument for both sides of this debate, but whether he wins or not on Sunday, he should make it. The Rams were one of the best offenses ever assembled, but would they have been as effective with anyone else as the quarterback? Maybe, maybe not. But for Warner to be so sensational in St Louis is one thing. For him to revive a franchise that has achieved nothing for 60 years and help turn it not only into a reasonable team, but a Super Bowl team is incredible.
Warner had his black period, being dumped around the league for a few years, but he has put together some of the finest seasons in the history of the position. I hope the writers when the time comes don't look to the down time in New York as a reason to keep him out. Warner is a great success story, and a great talent who deserves to make it one day. I'm not convinced he'll be a first ballot Hall of Famer, but after this season, he's surely done enough to make it to Canton.
And Finally...
I write this as I watch NFL America's Game on the 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers and it really opens your eyes when you think about it. A dozen Head Coaches who started the 2008 season were fired in the last 5 months. The quick fix is all the rage in the NFL, as it is in soccer over here. But then you look at those teams who are patient and don't make rash decisions. Manchester United could have sacked Alex Ferguson in the late 80's, but patience prevailed. With the Pittsburgh Steelers, patience is key. In 1969 Chuck Noll was hired, and held the job for 22 years. Now Noll's regular season record wasn't sensational (193-148-1) but he knew how to keep them near the top and they won 4 Super Bowls during his tenure. It took Bill Cowher 14 years to win the Super Bowl, but they organisation knew what they had and stuck with him. Now Mike Tomlin has the chance to get it done and bring a 6th Super Bowl Championship to Pittsburgh.
To have 3 coaches in FORTY years is exactly the way to run a successful franchise. After all, the same guys who do the hiring and firing are the same guys who appointed said coach in the first place. Maybe it's not the coaches who are making the mistakes. Al Davis in Oakland is firing coaches by the boatload, but who is it that's employing these people in the first place? Al Davis of course. What's great about the Steelers is that they get a coach, surround him with good football people, and give him the freedom to make it work. But above everything else, they stick with their man. They could have fired Chuck Noll when he started out his first 3 years without a winning season, but they stayed loyal and went on to do great things. They could have fired Bill Cowher in the late 90's when the Steelers didn't hit .500 over a three year span, but they let him ride it out, and were rewarded. There's a reason the Steelers are in the Super Bowl while everyone else watches on.
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