The Football Diner Big Top 5
Mouthwatering Matchups
by Jody Jamieson
17/12/2008
With just two weeks of the NFL regular season remaining, and some mouthwatering clashes to look forward to to decide playoff positions and home field advantage, the schedule makers really hit the jackpot this year. It has been noted that the schedule makers have seemed to favour more December divisional matchups this season which is a trend I hope continues. To top it all off some of the other games for the last two weeks are must see TV. This week on Top Fives, we highlight the most mouthwatering games of the last two weeks, and how it will shape the playoff picture.
5. Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers - Week 17
 Of course, this game won't matter at all if San Diego don't win in Tampa or the Broncos take care of the stuttering Bills, but with the way Denver are, you never know. Denver seemed to have finally gotten their inconsistencies sorted but then laid an egg in Carolina on Sunday. Buffalo should be a team that they can take care of, but with Trent Edwards likely to be back that may make things very difficult. When looking at the Broncos I tend to highlight the running back they come up against as they simply can't stop the run. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had a great season, but a physical runner who keeps his legs moving is not the type of back the Broncos have been slowing down. But overall, the Broncos should have enough to take out a Bills team that has fallen apart completely from the team that started 4-0 and were playing well enough for me to pick them to win the division after 5 games (let's all laugh at me).
Despite their defense lacking in size and ability, Jay Cutler is they key. Cutler's performance mirrors the Broncos record perfectly, as you know what you'll get with the defense. They'll have a couple of decent series but will likely give up about 30 points. Cutler though is more than capable of outscoring the opposition, but has had too many disappointing games. Of course, it's unfair to blame Cutler for all of the Broncos struggles, but he's still turning the ball over a little too much. If he can get hot for the next two weeks, then they'll get it done. Of course, trusting the Bills to win in Denver is probably foolish. But then that's never stopped me in the past and I do honestly think the Broncos will lose to Buffalo. The Bills are due, and the Broncos are who they are. Anything is possible. Of course, Denver could lose by 100 points to Buffalo and it won't matter if the Chargers don't win in Tampa.
Momentum is a huge thing in football and when you look at the win San Diego picked up against Kansas City when they were essentially finished, that can really be a turning point. The Buccaneers on the other hand seem to be going in the opposite direction after two tough losses against divisional opponents. I fancy San Diego to pile more misery on the Bucs and set up a huge showdown at Qualcomm Stadium in Week 17. The Chargers haven't had their problems to seek this season, with a two week run of horrendous luck to start the season that would kill off almost any team. The Panthers loss on the last play coupled with the Hochuli howler put them in a hole they haven't really looked like climbing out of. However, after Sunday you'd be mad to question the heart of this team who had to win against the Chiefs, and came from 21-10 down with 77 seconds to go to win the game. Much like the first two weeks can kill off a team, a game like that can carry a team wherever they need to go.
The Chargers hold the tie breakers if they complete the improbable comeback. Unbelievably, I'm tipping them to finish 8-8 and beat out Denver. The Broncos are more than capable of blowing this, and I have the feeling they're going to fail against the odds.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans - Week 16
Both teams control their own destiny in the quest for the number 1 seed and home field advantage in the AFC playoffs, but you'd have to believe the winner of this one will go on and clinch Top Spot in the conference. If Tennessee win then it's theirs, but if Pittsburgh win then they hold the tie breaker with both teams 12-3 going into Week 17. The Titans are showing signs of being very beatable after recent losses to the Jets at home and the Texans in Houston. Jeff Fisher's call to not kick the field goal from 50 yards on 4th and 3 was a strange one, but after the season he's had, I'm more than willing to give him a free pass. Kerry Collins is slowing down a bit and had his struggles the past few weeks, and if Albert Haynesworth misses any prolonged time, it could be tough for Tennessee to win their first playoff game. If Haynesworth is back they do have the pieces to make a run. Defensively they are solid, and they have an offensive line that crushes in the run game, and keeps Collins relatively clean. If Collins is just having a rough patch rather than showing his age and lack of a full season in recent years, then everything should be fine and they should be very competitive.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is a funny animal. We all know they have the best defense in the league and a defense we'll likely look back on as one of the best of this era, but offensively I never know what to think. Ben Roethlisberger has had a down year, although most of that can be put down to injuries and shady play by the offensive line. Ben holds onto the ball a bit too long which can make the line look worse than it really is, but it's still not a great line. That is evidenced further in the inability of Willie Parker to run the ball. Parker has been hurt, and really Mewelde Moore has been their best running back all year. However going back to Roethlisberger, for all that he's looking average and his stats aren't the best, his continued development as one of the clutch 4th quarter guys has been highlighted the past few weeks, and never more so than on the 92 yard (or 91 1/2 yard drive depending on your view of the call) against a wonderful Ravens defense is further evidence of this. Roethlisberger is having a very good year despite the stat geeks complaints, and while it always helps to have an All-World Defense to back you up, Pittsburgh have still had to find a way to get it done offensively, and when the game is on the line, Ben Roethlisberger is the type of guy you can count on.
I think Pittsburgh take this one and will go onto claim the number 1 seed. But write off Tennessee at your peril. They possibly have peaked too soon, but there's enough talent on both sides of the ball to make them a major player in January.
3. Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants - Week 16
 This one is a little more straightforward than the Titans-Steelers game. The winner of this game takes the number 1 seed in the NFC. Simple as. Both teams sit at 10-3, but both are heading in opposite directions. Carolina is riding a 3 game winning streak and look great, while the Giants have lost their last two within the division, scoring just one offensive touchdown in the process (in garbage time against Philadelphia) and suddenly the Giants offense looks vulnerable. The biggest problem with the Giants offensively has been losing Plaxico Burress. I think we all underestimated the loss of Burress. Not having such a dangerous weapon that demands double coverage has allowed teams to leave an extra safety in the box to defend the run instead of having to roll out over the top in coverage. The Giants much vaunted running game has struggled with having an extra player to block, and because of the lack of an overpowering running game, the passing game is suffering. The loss of Brandon Jacobs is also a big blow, and they really need him back. The offensive line has struggled in pass protection big time to top it all off. The Eagles may have recorded no sacks last week, but were getting a lot of good pressure on Eli, especially on three 4th down passing plays where good pressure on Eli left the Giants 0-3 on 4th down. The loss of tackle Kareem McKenzie and guard Rich Seubert during the Dallas game may be seen by many as the reason the line wasn't playing so well, but in truth, they were struggling before either went down.
Carolina on the other hand are flying offensively with their 1-2 punch of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, who are tearing defenses up. They tore up what I still think is the best defense in the NFC on Monday Night Football when they hang 299 rushing yards on Tampa Bay, and continued the trick when they walloped the Broncos. The Panthers gave up a lot to trade up and select Jeff Otah #19 overall in April, but it's paid off in a big way as he's slotted in perfectly. But there are two big questions about this Carolina team. One is can Jake Delhomme take this team all the way? He's came back fabulously from Tommy John surgery, but the inconsistencies that have always been a question have shown up recently. The Oakland game a few weeks back was a terrible performance, and since he hasn't been hugely effective passing the ball. Of course, with the running game they have, as long as they have the lead he doesn't have to go out and win the game by himself. The bigger question however is the Panthers defense has shipped a lot of points. Since they shut down the terrible Andrew Walter in Oakland they've given up 22 to the Lions, 45 to Atlanta, 31 to Green Bay, and 23 to Tampa, before having their best game in a while holding Denver to 10. Of the offenses they've been shipping points to, not one of them is really going to scare you. Julius Peppers is back to his pass rushing best, and they're creating turnovers at good times, but I still don't trust them.
Everyone will be rushing out to tip the Panthers to win this game, and it may surprise you after reading this, but I think the Giants will adjust their gameplan and be effective enough on both sides of the ball to win this game. Their offensive line will get back to it's best, and New York will do enough to ensure the road to Tampa will have to go through the Meadowlands.
2. Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles - Week 17
Both teams control their destiny over each other, but Dallas is the only one that controls their destiny in the Wildcard race. The Cowboys are in if they win out, and the Eagles will do the same providing either Tampa bay or Atlanta lose one of their remaining games. The Eagles travel to Washington to take on a free falling Redskins team on the back on some very good performances. They turned it around against Arizona, and then wins against the Giants and the Browns have Philadelphia back in the hunt. McNabb is playing really well right now and a lot of that is down to a much more balanced playbook. Marty Mornhinweg calling the plays has saved the day as now the balanced offense is getting Westbrook more touches and thus opening up passing lanes for the quarterback. McNabb is having another strong finish to the season much like last year. I still think it's time to move on with McNabb, but as I said a few weeks ago, it's more for him rather than the team. He's been treated poorly by the fans and the coaching staff and still holds a grudge for the Baltimore benching. I wouldn't be surprised if McNabb requests a trade this off season.
Meanwhile, the Dallas soap opera continues on. Terrell Owens is acting like nothing ever happened, and while perhaps some of the story was exaggerated, even lies have some element of truth as a wise man once said. The spat between Owens, Tony Romo and Jason Witten was put to one side as the Cowboys put up a 20-8 victory over the New York Giants. Romo has had a lot of stick for his December performances, but on the back of taking a beating by the Giants defense, T-Ro really showed a lot of guts in leading his team to victory. This could be a real turning point for Dallas, who have stuttered through this season but still have their own fate in their hands. Romo and the offense were playing ok early on, but the defense couldn't get off the field. Since Romo came back the defense has been excellent and Dallas could be peaking at just the right time. Baltimore at Texas Stadium is no gimme game, but I fancy them to do the business.
I reckon both teams win this week and Tampa or Atlanta will lose a game, making this a winner take all encounter. The Eagles will fancy their chances at home, but I think the Cowboys are peaking at the right time and will win the game and the Wildcard spot.
1. Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets - Week 17
The Miami Dolphins are the story of 2008. The Falcons, Ravens and Panthers have all bounced back from bad seasons last year to be in the thick of the playoff race, but the turnaround in Marinoland has been incredible. While I still maintain they weren't as bad a team as their record, they were still a 1-15 team with holes in a lot of places that one off-season wasn't likely to fix. However the signing of many key players has improved this team wonderfully. The addition of Davone Bess as an undrafted free agent to go with an improving Ted Ginn has given them a serviceable receiving core. The decision to keep Ricky Williams around has paid dividends, and the addition of Jake Long to the offensive line has certainly kept the quarterback clean. Defensively they've added some key players with Akin Ayodele and Jason Ferguson coming over from Dallas, as well as the emergence of Yeremiah Bell and the reemergence of Joey Porter. The mix of bringing in excellent new faces aswell as getting the best out of what was already there has turned Miami from a one win team into a team who could win the AFC East. Of course, I still think the best investment the Dolphins made in the off season was snapping up Chad Pennington in August when he was released from the Jets. Pennington has had a fabulous season, and has been the key player in the Dolphins revival.
 Of course, the Jets were more than happy to let go of Chad Pennington because of the arrival of one Brett Favre. Favre arrived into a media circus when he was traded from Green Bay, and Pennington became the odd man out. In truth, while the Jets probably didn't want Miami to get a respectable signal caller after Trent Green, Cleo Lemon and John Beck had entertained us all in 2007, but it was still the right move to cut Pennington. I'm sure the Jets are hoping that Kellen Clemens can pick up some tips for when he's 39 and Brett Favre finally retires. I wrote ages ago about the Jets being ridiculously inconsistent, and then they ripped of a 5 game winning streak. Funnily enough despite that streak they are now back to being ridiculously inconsistent. After becoming the first team to beat the Titans when the smashed them 34-13, they then laid an egg at home to the Broncos, allowed themselves to be comfortable defeated by the Niners, and then needed a bizarre playcall and a Losman fumble to beat the Bills at home. When you look at the Jets you see a nice balanced team which could go either way. They could win the last two, storm the playoffs and win it all, or they could lose in Seattle next week, and then finish 9-7 with Miami putting them away.
Miami go to Kansas City and New York goes to Seattle. If either team loses then they don't deserve to go to the post season, but I think they both pick up the W. But when it comes down to it I really think Miami is a better team than the Jets and will win in New Jersey and go onto win the division, which would be a turnaround not even a Dolphins fan could surely have thought possible.
Random Thoughts
I praised Jim Zorn immensely early in the season for the way the Redskins were playing. The scheme looked excellent on offense, and he was getting the best out of Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis. However things have gone pear shaped with the spat with Portis and now a loss to the lowly Bengals. A reign that was looking so promising at 6-2 could actually end in January with Dan Snyder's track record, which would be a great shame. Zorn looked great early on, and while Clinton Portis is no saint, it seems Zorn has lost the dressing room. It's not the first time Portis has gone on radio in Washington and said something controversial, but Zorn's reaction hasn't helped the situation. And if the decision to hand the ball twice in a row on the goal line to Mike Sellars was a punishment to Portis then maybe Zorn needs to take a long hard look at himself in the mirror.
I'm sick of talking about officiating this year, but I can't help it after the Ravens-Steelers game. The winning touchdown goes against everything replay is used for. On a call as close as that, the ruling on the field gets the benefit of the doubt. Unless there is clear indisputable video evidence, then the zebras shouldn't change the call. You could argue for days whether Santonio Holmes is in or not. For that reason alone the ruling on the field must stand. Because it was ruled short on the field, then it must be ruled short after replay, and thus if the ruling on the field was a touchdown, then that should have stood. There's been too many inconsistencies on replay this year that it will open up the debate as to whether replay should be used. But when you have the technology, it must be used correctly. I'm all for instant replay, but games like that make you wonder.
And Finally...
Monte Kiffin has announced that he'll step down as Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive coordinator to take up the same post at the University of Tennessee. Kiffin's defense over the last 12 years in Tampa Bay has been one of the most consistent and one of the best to watch, and great defensive players such as Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks have played their whole careers in the system and both have a great chance to be Hall of Famers when their careers end. I love the Tampa 2 that Kiffin employs with a deep linebacker which has been great for causing turnovers. It's a real bend but don't break defense as it will always give up yards, but specialises at keeping teams out of the endzone.
With Monte Kiffin edging close to 70 years old, no-one can deny him the chance to go and coach the Volunteers, where his son Lane will be the new Vols head coach. He's had a wonderful career in the NFL, and now he gets the chance to take his system into the college game. If I had a son who was a college prospect, I would love to send him to Tennessee to learn to play defense under on the the best defensive coordinators out there. Hopefully now that Kiffin has left the pro game, he'll specialise in grooming pro prospects for the future. I wish him all the best.
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