The Football Diner Big Top 5
Player Awards: a sneak peak
by Jody Jamieson
28/11/2008
It's awards time! Well strictly, it's not, as it's only just Thanksgiving, and all the individual hardware is handed out after the regular season. But we here at the Diner are normally one step ahead. Last year was really a no brainer in most categories, as Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis each won awards they really couldn't fail to win. This year there are a few candidates out there would could really make it interesting as the votes are taken in. This week, Top Fives picks five candidates for the 5 main player awards, and ranks their chances.
5. Comeback Player of the Year
Candidates : Julius Peppers, Ricky Williams, Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington
Now this award I always have a problem with in a way. Not with the award per se, but the way it can be awarded. Normally it comes from someone coming back from injury, but occasionally it's an award that says "Hey you sucked, but now you're quite good." Hence my inclusion of Julius Peppers. Peppers did suck last year when he was in, but this year is back to being the beast we all love. Jake Delhomme came back strong from Tommy John surgery and has to be a major candidate. Normally this surgery takes at least a year to recover from, but right from the get go, he was sharp and poised and leading the Panthers to victory. Sure, he's been ropey recently, but it hasn't mattered for the most part with his running game. Kerry Collins has done a fantastic job leading the Titans to 10-1 after Vince Young went down in Week 1, but as a passer he's only really been required since the Bears game. He was fabulous though in Chicago and Jacksonville. Could Chad Pennington conceivably win the award again? Pennington won the award in 2006 after coming back from rotator cuff surgery to lead the Jets to the play-offs, but after being benched in favour of Kellen Clemens in New York, and then being cut just one month before the season in favour of Brett Favre, he's been excellent in Miami. If I bother to vote for the Pro Bowl this year (which I don't normally do, but whatever) then Pennington will get my vote.
 But I hope it's Pennington's Dolphins teammate Ricky Williams that walks away with the award. Williams retired in 2004 due to his well publicised marijuana issues. He returned in 2005 to put in a steady performance, but then after failing yet another drug test, he was suspended for the entire 2006 NFL season. He then went north to the CFL to play for the Toronto Argonauts, rushing for just over 500 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. Sure, doesn't look great, but he did miss 2 months through injury. In 2007 he returned to Miami, played in the swamp game in Pittsburgh, rushed 6 times, got injured, and went back on the shelf. however 2008 has been much improved for Williams who has stayed clean, stayed healthy, and been a big part of the Dolphins rushing attack, sharing carries with Ronnie Brown, and getting majorly involved in the Wildcat offense. Williams simply has to get this award.
Dark Horses : What about Cadillac Williams? Sure, he has only just came back from an injury many thoughts might end his career, and hasn't done anything as of yet (other than run into Jeff Garcia and cost Tampa Bay 7 points) but surely if he has a strong last 5 games and helps the Buccs to the play-offs, then he must be worth considering, right?
4. Defensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates : Leodis McKelvin, Jerod Mayo, Chris Horton, Kenny Phillips, Curtis Lofton
Last year Patrick Willis won this at an absolute canter. This time round it won't be so clear cut as there are many good candidates. Leodis McKelvin's special teams numbers will probably get him some votes for this award (which they probably shouldn't, but you know they will). But don't let that make you think that he's doing nothing on defense. He had his first two picks against Kansas City on Sunday (one returned to the house) and has been pretty solid when used. Chris Horton came from nowhere as a 7th round pick by the Redskins, but he's been fabulous at safety. 52 tackles, 1 sack and 3 picks, and he's everywhere around the ball when the opposition runs. Kenny Phillips has only recently got the starting job with the Giants, but has done very well. He looks better and better with every appearance. Curtis Lofton was a second round pick by Atlanta, and has slotted in nicely at inside linebacker. He is second among rookies in tackles with 67.
But the guy who is leading all rookies in tackles with 89 is the New England Patriots stud linebacker Jerod Mayo. We all know that the Patriots were getting old at linebacker. And with Junior Seau leaving, they had a hole to fill. Many people thought it was a bit of a reach for the Pats to snap him up 10th overall in this years Draft. But who are we to doubt the Pats drafting strategy? Mayo stepped in on Day 1 and was excellent. Just when you think the Patriots defense is going to go south, they pick up a stud.
Dark Horses : Dwight Lowery, cornerback of the Jets who I love could have a shot if he finishes really strong. Sedrick Ellis of the Saints might have been a shout, but injuries will probably deny him. Chris Long perhaps may get some votes, but I don't know if he's done enough.
3. Offensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates : Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower
In my eyes there is a clear winner of this without question. What would be an interesting debate would be how you would rank 2-5 or even 2-10. Running back tends to traditionally be the easiest position to pick up coming from college to the pros, and a such makes running back the most likely position to have a rookie of the year. Certainly this year we have been spoiled at the running back position with guys like Stewart, Forte, Johnson and Hightower all making a big impact. All 4 of these backs have come from different backgrounds in terms of the draft. Stewart was a consensus first round pick that would come in right away and make an impact, providing he recovered from a foot surgery in time. Forte was a second round pick who may come in to spell someone initially. Johnson was considered a reach and a likely kick returner in his rookie year. And Hightower was a relative unknown out of Richmond selected 149th overall. Stewart has provided a fabulous one-two punch with DeAngelo Williams in Carolina, scoring 6 touchdowns and rushing for over 4 yards a carry. Forte is the feature back in Chi-town, closing in on 1000 yards and has 6 rushing touchdowns. He's been a threat out of the backfield catching 45 passes and 3 TD's. Chris Johnson is the "speedy" back compliment to the rumblin' bumblin' stumblin' of LenDale White. Johnson has 833 yards at 4.5 a pop and 6 total touchdowns. Tim Hightower's impressive performances have edged out the Edge as Edgerrin James is backing up Hightower, who despite only starting 4 games, already has 9 touchdowns (a Cardinals rookie record). Certainly some impressive rookie rushers in the NFL this year.
 However there is only one winner of this award. Matt Ryan was the 3rd overall selection, and many people were concerned when he was named the week 1 starter for the Atlanta Falcons. No-one had any real hopes for Atlanta this year, and there were real concerns that Ryan would face a painful rookie season. He has gone on to put together one of the finest seasons in the history of rookie quarterbacks with a spectacular year under centre. We were all concerned it may end in tears throwing him in immediately. The worst thing I can say about Ryan is that he looks a little like the Shermanator from American Pie. He couldn't have started stronger, throwing a 62 yard TD pass on his first drop back to Michael Jenkins. He currently has 11 TD passes and only 6 picks. A 60 % completion percentage and a QB rating of 88.3. Projected numbers like that got Jeff Garcia to the Pro Bowl last year. Ryan is the unquestioned Rookie of the Year this year.
Dark Horses : OK, so Joe Flacco deserves some consideration if he finishes strong despite my failure to make him a candidate. Eddie Royal? Possibly. Another Bronco in left tackle Ryan Clady has been superb, as has Jake Long after a slightly sluggish start, but I just can't see it going to an offensive lineman.
2. Defensive Player of the Year
Candidates : Albert Haynesworth, John Abraham, Charles Woodson, Joey Porter, James Harrison
Haynesworth is probably the best defensive tackle in the game, and he's getting it done again both in stopping the run and rushing the passer. He eats space and quarterbacks for lunch. John Abraham is certainly not suffering from a sophomore slump in Atlanta, racking up 12 sacks as a part of an improving Falcons defense. Charles Woodson has 5 interceptions (2 returned to the house) and is having a marvellous season in Green Bay. Joey Porter is a one man wrecking crew in Miami. 14.5 sacks is insane, and is having a fabulous season. Unfortunately, his refusal to leave the field on Sunday against New England will likely cost him in some way. As if a roasting from the big Tuna won't be punishment enough, the guys voting for the awards may use this as a reason to not give him the award.
Right now, my defensive MVP would be Steelers linebacker James Harrison. 70 tackles and 12 sacks is amazing from outside linebacker. Throw in 4 forced fumbles and a pick and it's just ludicrous. Despite his long snapping troubles against the Giants, Harrison has been the absolute standout on an excellent Steelers defense. The Steelers really are being carried by their defense as Ben Roethlisberger and the offense has scuffled along a bit. Defensively they are ranked #1 in the league, and Harrison is the biggest part of that. I don't see how it can be anyone else that gets the award.
Dark Horses : DeMarcus Ware is having a great season in a horribly under performing Cowboys defense. Troy Polamalu had a disappointing 2007 when you actually watched him despite the fact people voted him to the Pro Bowl because they always do. Polamalu has been a beast this year though. Kris Jenkins is certainly a beast too, and a big reason for the Jets recent success. Cortland Finnegan may get a vote too.
1. MVP
Candidates : Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning, Brett Favre
Let's not beat around the bush here. It's going to be a quarterback that wins this award. It almost always is unless someone has an unbelievable season somewhere else, but in 2008, it's a QB heavy zone. There are a few good choices, and no-one from another position that's there to really going to challenge. Drew Brees has a great shot to break Dan Marino's 24 year old record for most passing yards in a single season. Marino's mark sits at 5,084. Brees needs just over 300 yards a game to beat it, and the way he's playing it's definitely possible. Rivers leads the league in TD passes and has done a very good job despite San Diego's struggles both running the ball and defensively. Eli Manning is the quarterback of the best team in football. He hasn't been (and never will be) spectacular but he's gotten over his inconsistencies that plagued him for a long time. He's having a very good season under centre while Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw run wild. And hey, do you remember the hated, conniving, sneaky Brett Favre of the summer? As I predicted, no-one would care about that if he throws touchdown passes for the Jets, and because he has,, no-one really cares. Sure, he's still thrown too many interceptions (what's new?) but he's been really steady recently, and is a huge part of the Jets 5 game winning streak which has them in position for a potential first round bye.
 But the MVP for me has to be Kurt Warner. I know he plays in an awful division, and I know he has Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to throw the ball to, but he's had a spectacular year for a perennial underachiever. Warner isn't too far behind Drew Brees' passing yards and could still make a run to take the record off Brees and Dan Marino. He has 21 TD passes and 8 picks. Only he and Rivers have a passer rating over 100, and more importantly perhaps, he is taking his team to the play-offs, which Brees and Phillip Rivers might not do. Warner picking up the MVP award may actually secure a spot in Canton for him when he retires, which is one of the great debates.
Dark Horses : Clinton Portis if it doesn't go to a quarterback has had a fabulous season. Michael Turner has 13 TD's for the Falcons and has been a huge part of making things that little bit more comfortable for the impressive Matt Ryan. Anquan Boldin? 11 TD's for Warner's Cardinals.
Random Thoughts
Has LaDanian Tomlinson hit the famous running back wall? I really hope not as there has not been a more electrifying runner in the NFL since probably Barry Sanders. He had a disappointing 2007 in terms of numbers to begin with, but a strong finish saw him pick up the rushing title after Willie Parker got injured. A lot of the problems early last year I would have put on the offensive line, who really weren't physical. This year watching the Chargers the line hasn't been great, but are doing a good job of giving him something to work with, which they absolutely didn't do last year at times. I know LT has had injuries this year, but we are to believe he is close to 100% The LT I saw against the Colts didn't look 100% to me. Look at his numbers and it was a good performance. 4 yards a pop and a few receptions out of the backfield. But he was missing something. He looks like he's lost a step to me watching him hit the hole. I hope his toe is still bothering him, and he isn't on the decline.
The Michael Vick story has reared it's head again, and the debate is raging on. Should he be allowed to play in the NFL once he is released from prison? Now I certainly won't condone what he did, as it was disgusting, but when he's released he has served his time. And once he has served his time can anyone really deny him the chance to rebuild his life? Sure, it wouldn't be a popular decision, and it would likely be a PR disaster for whoever picked him up, but unless the NFL doesn't let him back in, someone will take him on. The rumours are that as many as six NFL teams have said they'd give it a shot, and why not? His skills may be diminished, but they guy has natural abilities that could maybe shine if given a second chance. I don't believe the NFL really can or should deny him a second chance.
And Finally...
The Bears are making a gigantic mistake with Devin Hester, and it's one I was worried they were going to make. I had the worry last season that they were going to end up changing Hester from the greatest return guy in the history of the game into an average wide receiver. It now seems that the transition is complete. Well, two-thirds complete. Hester is a wide receiver now and doesn't take the kickoffs. He's still going back for punt returns but Danieal Manning is now the kickoff returner.
There is one reason and one reason only as to why they are putting Hester in as a starting wide receiver. And it's nothing to do with Hester's ability to make big plays. It's simply due to the fact that the Bears have failed for the past few years to have any respectable receivers, with the exception of Bernard Berrian (who left via free agency) and Mushin Muhammed (who they cut) and instead are left with guys like Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd. If they had properly addressed the position in the first place they could have done the right thing in leaving Hester to concentrate on doing what no-one else can do quite like him, while occasionally coming in as a third or fourth receiver to keep defenses off balance. The fact Hester doesn't have a return touchdown this year probably has more to do with the fact he's playing so much offense than anything else. The sad part was 12 months ago Devin Hester the returner was the best offensive weapon the Bears had. Now he's a reasonable cog in a half-decent offense. Just a ridiculous turn of events.
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