The Football Diner Big Top 5
AFC Playoff Race
by Jody Jamieson
23/10/2008
 
The way the AFC has played out through 7 weeks of action shows exactly what is so great about the National Football League. Before the season started New England, Indianapolis and San Diego were locks for post season play, but only New England currently boats a winning record. Meanwhile the Steelers are 5-1 with a quarterback who is clinically dead, and the Titans despite all their issues on offense (or so we thought) and the only undefeated team in football. the difficult part of all this is that putting together some sort of predictions about how it's going to go down in this Conference is akin to pulling names out of the hat. After deliberating about this for much of the week, Top Fives has put together the AFC Post Season Primer.
 
5. The Wildcard
 
This could be a great race this year. You can eliminate Kansas City, Oakland and Cincinnati and Houston, but after that it's wide open. Baltimore and the Jets are so maddeningly inconsistent that they'll probably finish 8-8. Miami are much improved but with probably end up with a 7-9 record or thereabouts. I think the Denver Broncos are set up for a fall. Which leaves the Colts, Jags, Browns, and Patriots.
 
While I think the Jaguars could go on a run, I think they'll just miss out. I like them a lot and if their line stayed healthy they'd probably make it. I still think Cleveland are good enough to make the play-offs, but Romeo Crennel's shady coaching is going to cost them. Which leaves the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots which is often the easy prediction for the AFC Championship game. the Colts will get healthier and find a way to win 10 games. The Patriots are the big surprise here, but I think there's enough mediocrity in the AFC that a 9-7 record, which New England is still good enough to get with the schedule they have, would likely be enough for a Wildcard spot.
 
4. AFC West
 
Is it possible for no-one to win this division? Kansas City and Oakland will be surprising no-one this year. But of all the teams deemed to be under performing around the league, San Diego are the ones who haven't been hosed by injuries. Sure, Shawn Merriman is a huge loss, but other than that they've been relatively injury free. Rivers is performing well, but their defense is struggling to get off the field. I do get the impression that the Chargers are still feeling a little sorry for themselves after Delhomme's last second score in Week 1 and Ed Hochuli's whistle blowing ways in Week 2. That's never going to get it done in the NFL if that's the case. You just never know what you're going to get with them. One week they're shredding the Patriots and the next week they're being owned by Buffalo. Meanwhile, Denver's game at New England highlighted everything that is wrong with their defense. It was unbelievable how many times in the running game the Broncos got a good push, closed all the gaps, and still gave up a big run due to their inability to complete a tackle.
 
Unfortunately I have to pick someone from this division to win it, and it'll probably be the San Diego Chargers. They are still the most talented team in this division, and should find a way to put together enough wins to take the West.
 
3. AFC East
 
All hail the single wing! Well, until the Baltimore Ravens figured it out and shut it down. The Dolphins have certainly been fun to watch running this offense, but you wonder if it will gradually be phased out now. Incidentally did you see Brett Favre line up at wide receiver in Oakland? It's a pity Brad Smith put his head down and ran as Favre was wide open. But the Jets continue to be the most frustrating team in football with another bizarre loss. The Jets went 5 wide for almost the whole first drive and picked off the blitz till Rob Ryan finally woke up and did something about something. The Jets really showed their inability to adjust to the different looks and while Favre still looks great, he is also starting to look old at the same time. The Jets will likely finish 8-8 without putting together a 3 game streak of any kind.
 
New England isn't as doomed as everyone thought when Brady went down. Cassel is what he is, but when you can hand the ball off to a running back, who then runs at the Denver defense, it's tough to find a way to lose the game. The Pats have had a couple of tough losses, getting smashed by Miami and San Diego, but have done a good job of balancing the offense, and while their defense can still be run on, they can still be tough to score on. But the division winners will almost certainly be the Buffalo Bills who had a great year last year, despite their 7-9 record. They put together some very good performances last year despite their defense being absolutely decimated in 2007. Now that everyone on that side of the ball is back, particularly Paul Posluzny who missed 13 games last year, but is breaking out at linebacker, they are tough to score on. Trent Edwards is having a great year pulling the strings and could pick up an MVP award to go with a likely division title and a play-off berth.
 
2. AFC North
 
This division is fascinating. You've got Pittsburgh with the hardest schedule ever it seems at 5-1, you've got the Browns showing signs of life under a rejuvenated Derek Anderson, only to fall apart offensively against Washington. Romeo Crennel had another nightmare day, going for it on 4th down when kicking a field goal makes it alone score game before going on to lose by 3. You've got a Ravens team that flops one week then looks impressive the next. And then you have the Bengals. That's the last reference I'll probably make of them this year whenever I'm talking play-offs.
 
I find it hard to believe Pittsburgh can keep it up. Their schedule is only getting worse, their offensive line is unimpressive, and they're down to Mewelde Moore at running back, who did have a great day against those who shall not be mentioned anymore on Sunday. And I have more respect that I ever could have thought possible for Ben Roethlisberger, who seems to be injured in places most people don't have places. But the reason I am picking the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division is solely because of their defense. In their only loss against the Eagles when the Steelers offense did nothing, defensively they gutted it out and kept the game close. Pittsburgh, against all the odds, can find a way to get a first round bye, and that might be crucial if this team gets any more banged up down the stretch.
 
1. AFC South
 
This division has been bizarre this year. Indianapolis are always there, and Jacksonville were tipped as their closest challengers. So naturally Tennessee have come from nowhere to be the best team in football thus far while the Jags are banged up and the Colts start to age. Houston showed signs last year that they could become competitive in this division, but yet again they flatter to deceive. the Texans have been a disappointment thus far and despite the problems Hurricane Ike caused in the area, it's hard to make excuses for them. Jacksonville's offensive line has been badly decimated by injury which is always going to put a spanner in the works of a team. They are showing signs of adjusting to adversity, but it's going to be tough to see them getting back into it. While age seems to be catching up to the Colts, injuries have killed them also. Peyton Manning is still battling rust, their offensive line is battling injuries, and the defense is small and fast, but missing Bob Sanders, which has always been a recipe for disaster.
 
The Tennessee Titans are following the recipe of many teams who have gone deep in the playoffs. Defense always has and always will win championships. From the Baltimore Ravens a few years back, to the New York Giants a few months back, providing teams have one part of their offense working, a great defense will take care of the rest. It's hard to pick holes in the Titans right now. Sure, Kerry Collins is no Tom Brady, but realistically he doesn't have to be that good for Tennessee to be successful. He's managed the game, handed it off to a great running game with LenDale White and Chris Johnson running wild, and hasn't made mistakes when called to put the ball in the air. Defensively they are outstanding, and this team may just be a healthy few months away from doing something really special, and really unexpected in a conference which was likely to be dominated by Indianapolis, New England and San Diego. The fact they are leading a division expected to be dominated by the Colts and Jaguars is impressive enough.
 
Random Thoughts
 
Just as the single wing offense came back into fashion thanks to the Dolphins, so has firing coaches midseason thanks to the Rams. Scott Linehan was fired as the Rams went into the bye week, and the trick seemed to pay off, as Interim Head Coach Jim Haslett is 2-0. So another NFC West team has followed suit as the 49ers canned Mike Nolan after a loss to the Giants. San Fran started the season 2-1, but after offensive play calling went a long way to making sure they'd throw away a lead against the Eagles, I find it hard to believe they would fire Nolan after a cross-country loss at home of the reigning champions. Not that I don't think Nolan should have at least been under pressure, but the timing seems a little off. Firing coaches mid season always points to ownership making poor decisions in the first place, and along with benching quarterbacks to essentially pass the buck (a la Linehan with Marc Bulger), it's usually the last desperate act of a franchise trying desperately to salvage a season that is most likely already lost.
 
With the Wembley game just days away, who would have predicted both of this years participants would have losing records coming into London? With both the Saints and the Chargers sitting at a sub-par 3-4, London is not only important to the British based NFL public, but it's become a critical juncture of both teams seasons. I know the Giants liked to say the London game last year was the catalyst to their run to the Super Bowl, but you forget the win over the Dolphins at Wembley was their 6th win in a row after an 0-2 start. They then went on to lose their next game at home to Dallas. This time round. With Denver still pushing on despite their defense, and the NFC South being much stronger than anyone anticipated, this should make Sunday even more interesting for us. On paper, a battle of two 3-4 clubs may not sound too appealing, but when they are THESE 3-4 clubs, it sets up a mouthwatering clash. Pray for the rain to stay away!
 
And Finally...
 
I get really frustrated with the nonsense that comes out of those in power in sports sometimes. I made a comment a few weeks ago about the Premiership and SPL in soccer and how they like to brush anything under the carpet in the most condescending way. It appears that the act of people in charge insulting your intelligence isn't exclusive to Britain. If any of you caught referee Wilbert Hackett take out Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia in LSU's victory over South Carolina this weekend you probably got a chuckle out of it. It actually looks intentional but it's hard to believe that it could possibly be a deliberate ploy by Hackett, a former linebacker himself in his youth. The SEC could have kept this issue light and just put it down to one of those freak things that can happen in a game such as football. Instead they come out and claim that there's nothing wrong with it as the ref was in the right position.
 
Excuse me?! Hackett was almost in a nickelback position. It would have been less ridiculous of the SEC to have claimed he was brought on the blitz by the Tigers. As I said, I don't think it was intentional, but he got caught up in the wrong position and that should be that. No-one is perfect. For the SEC to come out and make a comment like is just patronising to anyone who witnessed the incident. I have no problem with them protecting their guy, especially in a situation like this where there is no need for a witch hunt. That being said I long for the day that governing bodies in sport stop treating us like idiots who don't know what we're watching.