The Football Diner Big Top 5
NFC Playoff Race
by Jody Jamieson
15/10/2008
 
Last year I did my post season primer last year around Week's 9 and 10 and nailed 11 of the 12 playoff contenders, which that deep in the season, should be par for the course. Then I did some predictions around the end of May and while I nailed Favre's comeback, I doubt the Giants will miss the playoffs or the Browns will win the AFC North like I predicted. This year the post season predictions come a little early and the JJ jinx is about to strike. Next week it will be the AFC, but this week we look into the cracked, misty and dirty Top Fives crystal ball and set up it's view on the NFC play-off race.
 
5. The Wildcard
 
Everyone expects these two to come from the NFC East, but it may not be as clear cut as it looks. Suddenly the unstoppable Beast of the East has been taken down, at least for one week. Admit it, there's no way you predicted the Redskins would lose to the Rams! I certainly didn't. Admit it, there's no way you predicted the Browns would crush the Giants. Again, I certainly didn't. And if you predicted the Cardinals would beat the Cowboys, you actually got one right like me. For what it's worth I also predicted the Raiders would win in New Orleans. Certainly takes the gloss of the Cardinals prediction!
 
And as the NFC East slipped as only Philly won (pretty unconvincingly in San Francisco) the South is suddenly back in the race with the Saints at 3-3, and the rest of the division sitting pretty at 4-2. I think overall despite a major disappointment this Sunday the Washington Redskins will take one of the Wildcard spots. Jim Zorn and the coaching staff have been too impressive thus far for them to go into a tailspin. Dallas for me is going to find a way to miss out. Combine the fact that Romo hasn't been great, and the fact that someone inferior is going to take over at quarterback, and the fact that TO may explode, and the fact that the defense has been very vulnerable, and the head coach doesn't seem strong enough to deal with adversity, and they'll not make it in my opinion. I think with Westbrook and Shawn Andrews back for the Philadelphia Eagles after their bye week that they will be the team to sneak in. While I don't want to jinx my own team, I do think they will be strong enough to finish above Dallas, but it could come down to a Week 17 showdown at Lincoln Financial Field. Imagine that!
 
4. NFC West
 
This division wasn't very good last year, and this year doesn't look any better. Despite the Rams getting a win, they aren't going to be getting back in the race barring a miracle. Seattle aren't much better with their injury problems, and despite a reasonable start, the improving Niners aren't ready to make a run at the play-offs. To me, this division will be a one horse race, and if the Arizona Cardinals don't win this division I'll be amazed.
 
Kurt Warner is enjoying his Indian Summer, and providing he can stay healthy, this could be a 10 win team. Tim Hightower is having a great rookie campaign, and while the numbers may not support it, their defense has been pretty good. Sure, they conceded 56 points to the Jets, but with a multitude of short fields for the Jets and a surprising touchdown pass with the game completely over, the defense wasn't as terrible as you'd think. Overall I do think they'll win the division and probably lose in the first round of the play-offs, but you never know. Maybe the Cardinals, who have a history of not being able to even achieve mediocrity for the most part, are finally ready to shake their tag and become a franchise to be proud of.
 
3. NFC North
 
The Lions and the Vikings have been disappointments. With Detriot you expect it though so it's hardly news. Minnesota have been a massive disappointment thus far and despite riding a 2 game winning streak, they were lucky as you can be in New Orleans and unconvincing in beating probably the worst team in the league in those terrible Lions. To me, this division is a two horse race between the Bears and Packers. Chicago was lucky to be in a one score game after the missed field goal, but after getting the lead with 11 ticks to go, it will have been a heartbreaker to lose that one. The Packers had a good win in Seattle and Aaron Rodgers continues to gut it out and get it done despite the shoulder injury.
 
To me, despite there not being an outstanding team in this division, the Green Bay Packers just have that little bit more. Defensively they are still really tough, and are creating turnovers. Offensively they have a lot of good weapons and will have too much for Chicago. Matt Forte has played superbly thus far though so while I'm hesitant to write them off this early, I can't see Chicago winning the division. That being said the two meetings at Lambeau and Soldier Field should be excellent matchups.
 
2. NFC South
 
This is shaping up to be a great division. The Panthers look good, Tampa Bay looks much like they did last year, the Falcons have been a pleasant surprise, and if the Saints could kick the ball they'd be 5-1. With this being a rather tame division last year with only Tampa Bay posting a winning record and then being bounced from the playoffs in the first round. Carolina had big problems when Jake Delhomme went down, New Orleans were plagued by inconsistent play by Drew Brees in the first 4 weeks, and inconsistent play from the defense all season, and the Falcons were suffering from not having Michael Vick, having DeAngelo Hall, and not having Bobby Petrino after he walked out towards the end of the year.
 
Fast forward one year and this division is tough to call. Tampa Bay have had a controversy at quarterback, but with Jeff Garcia likely to be back in the saddle the Bucs are in good shape. Carolina have Jake Delhomme back and have been mightily impressive. I'm sure there 27-3 hammering in Tampa Bay was the exception rather than the rule. Mike Smith has done a wonderful job with the Falcons and there is hope again in Atlanta. However despite being 4th right now, I'm tipping the New Orleans Saints to win the division. Drew Brees is having an MVP year thus far, and despite a couple of tough losses, I think they are the best team in the division. Brees is getting days in the pocket to pick out a number of receivers who have really stepped up in the absence of Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. Reggie Bush is finally living up to the billing, and defensively they have been better than last year. I think the Saints will go on a run and end up with a first round bye.
 
1. NFC East
 
So after reading the rest of this thread, it should be fairly obvious who I'm tipping to win this division. The Cowboys are talented but flawed. The Redskins are well coached but beatable. The Eagles are offensively infuriating. And despite Eli Manning having a November 2007-esque performance against Cleveland, the New York Giants are still the best team in the division. Offensively they have so many weapons in the passing game with Plaxico Burress and Steve Smith. And the running game featuring Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw is probably the best running game in football right now.
 
Despite the retirement of Michael Strahan and the injury to Osi Umenyiora it has had no impact on their play. Justin Tuck signalled him intent for the new season by sacking Jason Campbell on the first play from scrimmage and they've never looked back. You do wonder if that beating on Monday will bring them back down to earth, but realistically there are too good a team right now to go into a tailspin. They'll win the division, and wrap up home field advantage. But will home field advantage be as useful to them as going on the road was last January?
 
Random Thoughts
 
One of the more interesting discussions among the American media is on the Manning brothers and the question is being asked as to whether Eli has actually surpassed Peyton as the better quarterback. Now Monday night aside, Eli has had a fantastic 9 or 10 game stretch, but is that really enough to surpass Peyton? The comparisons between Peyton's first few years and Eli's aren't a fair way to base it as Peyton played on some pretty poor Colts teams to begin his career. Eli on the other hand has some great weapons and an excellent defense. Eli is without a doubt a very good quarterback, but I just can't agree that he has either caught or surpassed his older brother. Peyton is still king. Eli may have taken his team into the endzone with the Super Bowl on the line, but more often than not, I'd rather have Peyton in that situation.
 
Are Cleveland about to justify all the preseason hype and go on a run? A dreadful 3 game skid to start the season was followed up by a victory over the Bungles. Every great journey begins with a small step. That was a great victory over the Giants, and is the type of performance that can spark a team into life. Brady Quinn won't see any game time any time soon as Derek Anderson seems to be back on form, which is something I really didn't think would happen. Ultimately the 3 losses to start the season will probably kill them, but this is football and you just never know. The AFC North may be up for grabs this year, and if Cleveland can ride the wave of this victory, perhaps it's not over for them just yet.
 
And Finally...
 
I commented a few weeks back on the Ed Hochuli decision in the Denver-San Diego game and about how I was impressed by his reaction, despite the obvious gaffe. However this year the standards of refereeing in football have slipped in my eyes, and it's quite alarming. Before I get going I know it must be a horribly difficult game to officiate but too many times over the past few weeks we've seen bad calls change the course of a game. A phantom roughing the passer penalty kept the Titans drive in Baltimore alive and ultimately led to the game winning score, obviously the Denver game, and some of the pass interference calls I've seen called (or not called as the case may be) have been quite baffling. And quite how the refs allowed Mike Nolan to challenge (unsuccessfully) a field goal that was above the goalpost (and thus going by the rule book it's an unchallengeable play) was just ridiculous.
 
I hope this doesn't become the norm this year, as last year the officiating was a real strength of the league and helped make last year a season to remember. This year? I'm worried that something is going to happen further down the line that is the difference between one team getting in and one team missing out. Of course, a bad decision is a bad decision and shouldn't be any more highlighted depending on what Week it happened in or how late in a game it happened, but I'm definitely concerned.