The Football Diner Big Top 5
Disappointing 2008 Starts
by Jody Jamieson
17/9/2008
 
How many of your pre-season predictions are looking as good as ruined right now? Just two weeks into the season and as smug as I'm feeling about tipping Buffalo to get 10 wins this year, I'm also trying to keep quiet about some of my disastrous picks. This week on Top Fives I expose my shortcomings in the prediction stakes already as we look at the 5 most disappointing 0-2 starts to the season, 4 of which are teams I picked to make the playoffs. Of course, nothing is decided in Week 2, but it's never a good sign for my ability to pick a winner. If this site ever gets a betting mailbag much like the Fantasy section the smart money is on me not getting near it.
 
5. Cleveland Browns
 
My pick to win the AFC North. Romeo Crennel was a great story from last year, but so far this year he is taking flak from all angles for some of the decisions he is making. Mostly surrounding field goals but also some horrendous clock management at the end of the first half against Pittsburgh was the defining drive of a dreadful start to the year for this trendy pick. Suddenly Crennel and quarterback Derek Anderson are under a lot of pressure. Crennel did a great job getting this team to 10-6 last year but the nature of the NFL is that a 10-6 season means nothing if you can't follow it up with a winning season next time round. Sometimes you lose and it's unfortunate, but sometimes you lose and you leave yourself open to crticism by making some questionable calls. Like going for a field goal while 28-7 down to the Cowboys in the 4th quarter. Like going for a field goal with 3 minutes to go while down 10-3 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. And the drive to end the first half against the Steelers was as ugly as it gets.
 
Anderson meanwhile is struggling. He had a less than impressive end to last season, and everyone remembers his horror show against the Bengals which eventually cost them a play-off berth. With Brady Quinn breathing down his neck he had to perform. He's had a rough start to the season but it isn't all his fault. Donte Stallworth and Joe Jurivicius being available would make life a lot easier for him, and Braylon Edwards has had hands of stone to start the season. And while all this is going on Cleveland's defense looks a little better than last year, but teams will still score on them. Baltimore awaits the Browns this week in a game they simply have to win. If their defense can contain rookie quarterback Joe Flacco then everything should be ok. If they can't then I'd be extremely worried.
 
4. Seattle Seahawks
 
This is the only team on this list I didn't have making the playoffs but that being said, with a reasonable couple of games to start the year, I'm amazed they are 0-2. Sure, Buffalo are tough to play on the road, but the Seahawks got hammered. Back home to face the hapless 49ers is a nice way to rebound. Well it is if you get it done.
 
Every team has to deal with injuries, but not every team has to deal with so many injuries to one position like the Seahawks have at wide receiver. The good news for them is they'll get these guys back over the next few weeks and life might not be so tough on Hasselbeck. The Seahawks owe a good year to Mike Holmgren who will be gone after this season and while I think they can turn it around (and they are certainly in the right division to do it) they need to get it done fast. At least they get the woeful Rams at home this week. Holmgren himself could probably lineup at wide receiver and the Seahawks would win.
 
3. Minnesota Vikings
 
My pick to win the NFC North. I was fully aware when I made this pick what it would come down to. Now the thing is Tavaris Jackson hasn't done anything horribly wrong during the first two weeks. The problem is apart from one drive in Green Bay and one drive against the Colts where he got into a bit of a rhythm, he wasn't getting it done. Adrian Peterson is wonderful and even with eight men in the box he's churning out yardage, but teams are happy to stack the box as they are so confident that Jackson can't beat them through the air.
 
Minnesota host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and with Steve Smith back and the Panthers able to reach 2-0 without him, then all things are rosey in that garden. This is a huge game for the Vikes as they can't allow themselves to fall to 0-3 when they have an opportunity to turn it around. The defense is doing a fine job, and the running game is still almost unstoppable. It all rests on the quarterbacks shoulders this week, and he absolutely has to come through.
 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
 
My pick for 2nd in the AFC South and a wild card berth. In all truth when it comes to Jacksonville, so many injuries on the offensive line is just going to ruin that team this year which is a shame as going into the season the Jags are in my mind finally ready to challenge for the division title. With the Colts starting to get old and Peyton Manning struggling to get back to full fitness after surgery, a fast start could have put the pressure on an Indy team losing convincingly to the Bears before grinding out a win against the Vikes. It doesn't get any easier for the Jaguars as they face the struggling, but always dangerous Colts in Indianapolis this week. Not the opponent you fancy in this situation.
 
While the other teams on this list have the chance to make it right, I really can't see it happening for Jacksonville this year. Far too many injuries on the offensive line will absolutely destroy this team, which is a great shame as I really like what Jack Del Rio has done with this group.
 
1. San Diego Chargers
 
My pick to win the Super Bowl. A heartbreaking loss in Week 1 in the dying seconds against Carolina could have been just one of those things. The problem was despite the fact that the referees ultimately cost the Chargers the game on Sunday (I'll come to that later) the Chargers prior to that had given up 31 points to the Broncos. With Shawne Merriman out for the year, and with Antonio Cromartie spending the whole day getting smoked in coverage (compare it to last week and replace Eddie Royal with Brandon Marshall and DeAngelo Hall with Cromartie and you get the picture) there are some serious questions about this football team.
 
Sure, a slow start last year didn't harm the Chargers too much, as a 1-3 start still didn't stop them reaching the AFC Championship Game. However last year Denver were nowhere to be seen. This time round they are 2-0 and Cutler looks like the next young quarterback who is in the process of breaking through the ceiling and becoming a Top 5 NFL signal caller.
 
The NFL season is too short to be giving anyone a 2 game start. I have no concerns about San Diego's talent (Shawne Merriman's absence apart as that is a huge blow) but I honestly though Norv Turner had figured it out last year. You wonder after this start whether the Chargers run last year was despite Turner instead of because of Norv.
 
Random Thoughts
 
How do they do it? Matt Cassel manages the game effectively and the New England Patriots go into the Meadowlands to take on the Jets and come away with the win. A lot of people had the Jets winning this one, and understandably so. When you've lost a future Hall of Fame quarterback to injury and you replace him with one who hasn't started since High School you have issues. When you're giving this guy his first start against another future Hall of Famer then his back is against the wall. The Patriots as a team just know how to get it done and did so again when the chip were done. Perhaps the AFC East isn't as wide open as everyone thinks.
 
Monday Night Football from Texas Stadium was an absolute classic. It had everything. Lots of offense, turnovers, no-one taking a play off, a disgracefully stupid play by DeSean Jackson that can at least be laughed about as he ultimately got away with it, and everything you want out of a divisional rivalry. 41-37 in a tremendous game. What this game showed is that both teams are among the NFC Elite. We all knew Dallas would be good, but there were question marks about Philadelphia. McNabb looks great, and for the most part the Eagles O Line protected him excellently. Everyone has the friend they want to try and convert into an NFL fan. Show them last nights game and if they still don't get it, then they never will.
 
Sticking with Monday Night and a lot of fans are never too thrilled about the ESPN announcers. Ron Jaworski is good, and while Tony Kornheiser is loved on Pardon the Interruption, he gets a hard time in the booth. People think he doesn't know what he's talking about but I think he's on a mission to spark debate, which is never a bad thing. Play by play guy Mike Tirico is almost the forgotten man but he was great last night and absolutely right on the money. He noticed straight away there was a problem with Jackson's "TD" and pointed out Dallas like to go for it on first down from around the opposition 35 yard line. What happens? Romo goes deep looking for Jason Witten. Tirico was excellent last night and I hope this is a sign of how it's going to be.
 
And Finally...
 
Let's not beat around the bush. Ed Hochuli and his refereeing crew screwed up and cost the Chargers that game at Mile High. If they hadn't blown the whistle immediately after Jay Cutler's fumble then they would have been able to make the right call and it would have been San Diego ball up 1 with less than a minute to go and with Denver having no timeouts kneeldowns secure the win. Instead the Chargers are 0-2 and Norv Turner is back on the hotseat, and Mike Shanahan looks like a genius with the Broncos 2-0 and after his successful decision to go for 2 to win the game rather than settle for overtime. With this being a big decision in a Divisional game made by the refereeing crew in such a short season, it could be potentially damaging for the Chargers. However if you live on this side of the water you have to appreciate the reaction to the mistake by the guilty party Hochuli. He came on the mic to explain the decision right away and explain why the decision had been given the way it had been. He knew he'd made a mistake that could (and ultimately did) influence the outcome of the game, but didn't hide from it and played the situation correctly.
 
We've seen this a million times over here in soccer, except the fallout is played out a bit differently. In England the referee comes out, watches the decision again in front of the reporter, points out something that is not there that "justifies" his decision and walks away all smug thinking he is bigger than the game. In Scotland the referee screws up, no-one takes responsibility until the SFA comes out a few days later and says he made the right decision despite the blindingly obvious blunder. I know if you are a Chargers fan then this hardly softens the blow, but I think Hochuli handled the situation brilliantly and took full responsibility for his blunder, rather than the British way of trying in vain to pull the wool over everyones eyes. He'll get absolutely panned for all over for this but I'd rather let this one slide and praise the reaction.