The Football Diner Big Top 5
FD How To Guide: Why San Diego Can Win
by Jody Jamieson
19/1/2008
 
After spending the last week on a remote Scottish Island looking after a bunch of crazy teenagers doing conservation work, it's been a little hard to keep up with what has been going on in the NFL in the lead up to the Championship games. Having no internet access has made it impossible, and after scouring the internet on my return looking at the possibilities of Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates making the trip to Foxboro in pads rather than jeans, I thought I would give my reasons why I think that San Diego can take the win. Last week I did so with Jacksonville, and while they played a decent game, New England were always in control of the game, and never looked like losing. This weeks Top Fives will be the second Football Diner How To Guide, where we check out the areas that San Diego will need to perform in to win the game.
 
5. Nate Kaeding's kicking
 
Strange one to start off? Perhaps, but Kaeding picked up an injury a few weeks back, and has struggled big time in the post season. 2/6 from the field is hardly the form you want your kicker in. The fact is if San Diego want to win this game, they can't afford to get the ball deep into New England territory, and come out with no points. When you get inside the 30, and come out with no points, that's unacceptable for a team looking to go to the Super Bowl.
 
Kaeding was nicknamed "Big Game Nate" at school where he played in State Championship Games in three different sports (American football, soccer and basketball) but he has been anything but big game in the NFL playoffs. You may remember his miss against the Jets which ultimately cost the Chargers the Wild Card game in 2005. He then had a chance to keep the 14-2 Chargers in the past season last year, but missed from 54 yards, and the Patriots advanced. His current post season streak of games with a missed field goal stands at 4 and he absolutely cannot extend that to 5 if the Chargers are going to win this one.
 
4. Keeping Moss and Welker quiet
 
Teams have found a way to keep one quiet, but no-one has yet shut down both. San Diego may go into a nickel formation for long parts of this game quite naturally, and they are one of the few teams to have the tools to do this effectively. Drayton Florence has lost his starting job to the phenomenon that is "Cromartie-ball" but was doing a good job before Cromartie came in. With Jammer literally jamming Moss on the line and Cromartie looking for a pick-six every time the ball is thrown to Stallworth and Gaffney (there is the possibility these roles will be switched), that would leave Florence one-on-one with Welker. Most teams don't have a third corner with the talent of Florence, and they will fancy their chances this time round of getting the tight coverage they didn't get way back in Week 2.
 
3. LaDanian Tomlinson
 
Michael Turner is a good back, and Darren Sproles is showing potential, but without trying to be too unkind to these two, LT is from a different planet. It seems likely that Tomlinson will play, and as I touched upon last week, teams who run the ball can generally get success against the Patriots. Okay in fairness, MoJo and Fred weren't exactly lighting up New England, but they did a decent job. Tomlinson can have a quiet game in terms of yardage, and still make the key plays like he did against Tennessee. Regardless of what people were saying about Tomlinson's early season form and about Adrian Peterson, LT is still the benchmark in the NFL, and in January after a long season, he will be the last person Vrabel, Bruschi and Seau will want to have to stop 25 times on Sunday for short yards.
 
Speaking of those Patriots linebackers, in my opinion they didn't do a particularly good job in pass coverage against the Jags, and if Tomlinson plays and doesn't get great yardage, it may open the game up to...
 
2. Philip Rivers and his new found confidence/arrogance
 
While I have thought that Rivers has looked like a bit of a child over the past few weeks with his jaw-jacking and his general argumentative ways, I think that if he channels this correctly, he can use it to his advantage. Using this correctly will not involve shouting abuse at Brady if the Pats go three and out, or arguing with fans if the Chargers take the lead. His attitude has obviously come from extreme confidence in his ability, and if he can go in unfazed on Sunday I'm fairly confident from the news on Friday that he will play as he returned to practice. The early news I hear was that if he practiced, he would play. Rivers may struggle to get out of the pocket on Sunday if he does start, but he's doing a great job in the pocket, that it won't always be necessary. Naturally the Patriots will look to get pressure on him, but it may be the ultimate risk/reward situation.
 
1. Aggressive Defense
 
This is the absolute key to keeping the Patriots quiet this Sunday. Jacksonville didn't give up much deep, and kept Randy Moss very quiet, but they dropped almost into shallow prevent mode throughout the first 3 1/2 quarters and instead of the Pats going 74 yards in 4 plays, they did it in 9. If they can keep Moss and Welker quiet as I alluded to earlier, Brady may have to hold the ball a second or two longer than he really wants to. And with the pressure the Chargers can bring, it may be a more uncomfortable day than usual for the MVP of the league.
 
They really can't afford to be afraid to be beaten deep. It was said early in the season that to beat the Patriots, you really have to be willing to put it all on the line and risk giving up 50 points. Worse teams than San Diego have given the Patriots offense problems at points and the Chargers can get to Brady, providing they are willing to rush more than 4 at times.
 
Can the Chargers win? They most definitely can, and if I am being totally honest, I think they will. I'm going Chargers to win a tight one 34-31.
 
The Sean Payton Questionable Call of the Week
 
There can only really be one. Antonio Cromartie picked off a tipped Peyton Manning pass, and inevitably returned it for a touchdown (despite barely collapsing over the goalline after picking the ball off in one corner and scoring in the opposite corner) but a flag was down. Quite how Eric Weddle was flagged for holding I'll never know. Weddle looked more like an undersized left tackle than a safety with a textbook block at midfield and somehow the referee decided that his block was illegal. At least it didn't cost San Diego the game, but still. An absolutely awful call.
 
Interesting Facts
 
LaDanian Tomlinson's fumble against the Colts was his first fumble of the season, and ended the second longest streak of touches without a fumble. Only Tony Gonzalez had gone longer. Interestingly Marvin Harrison, who fumbled in the same game, committed only his 7th fumble of his career.
 
Brady went 26/28 on Sunday and recorded the best completion percentage in post season history, beating off Phil Simms and his outstanding Superbowl XXI performance.
 
Dallas became the first NFC #1 seed to lose in the divisional round since the 12 team playoff format came into play in 1990. The #1 seed had gone onto the Championship game every year till now.
 
And Finally...
 
I was met with the great news on my return from the Isle of Arran (lovely place incidentally, if you ever get the chance to check it out) with the great news that the NFL will return to the UK in 2008, with another regular season game to be played on our shores. The popularity of the game we love is growing in the UK, and this will only help boost it further. While the actual game was a bit of a washout last time round, the occasion was something to behold and a great advert to the growing love of gridiron in Britain. It will be difficult to predict right now who will likely host the game, but does it really matter? It could be anyone and it will sell out. I would love personally to see the Jaguars come over this time. I loved watching them play football this past year, and I think they would be a great advert for the game. Maurice Jones-Drew is probably the most exciting 5 foot 7 sportsman in the world, and he would be a great advert for how football is a game where even the little man can succeed.
 
But either way, it promises to be another great occasion, whoever makes the trip. Let's hope the weather will be a little better this time around!