The Football Diner Big Top 5
FD How To Guide: Ways to beat New England
by Jody Jamieson
9/1/2008
 
Wildcard weekend has come and gone, and has set up some really interesting match-ups for the Divisional play-offs. One match which will be must-see TV come this Saturday will be the Jacksonville Jaguars' visit to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. The Jags will fancy their chances of causing the upset, so this week on Top Fives I will evaluate their chances of doing the unthinkable, and look at things that can tip the balance the way of Jacksonville.
 
5. CB Rashean Mathis vs WR Randy Moss
 
In reality, it may not be just Mathis against Moss, but If they are to have any chance of shutting down New England's passing game, it starts with Moss. That's not to say that Brady won't find guys like Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney or Watson, but Moss is the big play guy who can turn a game on his head with one trip downfield. Mathis is a solid corner who has really impressed me over the past year or two. He may not possess the size that Moss does (Mathis is three inches shorter) but he will attempt to jam Moss on the line, and disrupt the timing. Moss has not been comfortable when he has been contacted at the line of scrimmage, and with decent safety play over the top, Jacksonville could make Randy Moss a non-factor in this game.
 
4. Bad weather
 
One thing about Foxboro is that nice weather tends to have gone into hibernation long before the play-offs start. The weather was not great when they played the Jets, and while they did win the game, the Jets were never completely out of it. The reason the Jets weren't out of it was because of their success running the ball. Leon Washington ripped off a huge run in the first quarter, but New York couldn't punch it in. The weather wasn't great against the Eagles or the Ravens, in games that New England were given a really hard time. Fair enough it wasn't good against Miami, but then it is the Dolphins after all. Cold weather will make passing the ball difficult and that will play into Jacksonville's hands.
 
If the weather is rubbish then this guy will have an important role to play...
 
3. Laurence Maroney
 
We saw when Maroney was brought in against the Dolphins to help run the ball, he can rip one off (or two in this case) and the Jags will have to be wary. They will likely be without Mike Peterson at linebacker, which would be a huge miss. There is a possibility that the Jags will see a heavy dose or Maroney and it will be up to them to keep him quiet. Maroney is a very physical runner, which is what you need if the weather is grim, but if the Jags can stop him then they can really give the Pats some problems. I'm sure playing on Saturday night was the last thing the Pats wanted for this game, and while one can't argue New England won't be able to pass in the cold, they certainly won't want Brady throwing 50 passes in sub-zero temperatures. We know that Jacksonville won't throw the ball 50 times regardless of the weather either, which will give Taylor and Jones-Drew the chance to shine. One thing I'm confident about in this game is that the Jacksonville running game will out-do the New England running game. If that happens, the Jacksonville have a shot.
 
2. Time of Possession
 
What Jacksonville want to do more than anything else is keep Brady and co. off the field, and leave Vrabel and co. on the field for 15 play drives if they can. Milking the clock and wearing down the defense gives Jacksonville their absolute best chance of winning the game. The Giants did a great job offensively for large parts of the Saturday night game but the Jaguars will have to do an even better job. In my interesting facts a couple of weeks ago, I noted that Jacksonville put together a 20 play drive against the Steelers, and more of the same may be in order to wear down an ageing linebacker corps in New England. Bruschi, Vrabel and Seau are hardly getting any younger.
 
Fred Taylor and FD's friend Maurice Jones-Drew will play physically. That goes without saying. The Patriots will be prepared for it, which also goes without saying, but in life there's only so much you can take, and if these guys can play smashmouth football while gaining 4 or 5 yards on every rush (Patriots ranked fairly low this season in yards per rush against) then the Jags could really take control. And if they run the ball well, then it will make Garrard's job so much easier.
 
1. The Turnover Battle
 
I don't think it's unfair to say the Garrard had his worst game of the season against the Steelers. One interception in particular - the one to James Farrior - was unforgivable in my eyes. Farrior was in the passing lane for so long before Garrard laid it up perfectly for him. If the Jaguars are going to beat the Patriots, they cannot afford to lose turnovers. They gave up two to the Steelers, but if they do the same again this week, the Pats won't be so forgiving. One of the main things that stuck out in close games such as the Eagles game and the Colts game was that New England won the turnover battle, and got the ball back at crucial times. Manning fumbled in the 4th quarter down by 4 and the Colts never got the ball back, and two late picks thrown by A.J. Feeley wrapped up a Week 11 success over Philadelphia. The Patriots have taken good control of the ball this season, but Jacksonville must force something out of their offense, while Garrard and co cannot afford to give the ball away cheaply. The only way they can really afford to give the Pats the ball is on punts or kick-offs. Anything else and they will struggle immensely.
 
This should be a great game, and while it could go either way, I think that the Patriots will probably have too much for the Jags. But if they can do the above, then they have every chance.
 
The Sean Payton Questionable Call of the Week
 
This week's call came directly from the commentary box during the Redskins-Seahawks game. Redskins have just taken a 14-13 lead, and the kickoff takes a crazy loop in the air, and on the way down is recovered by Redskins at the Seattle 14 by Redskins back-up receiver Anthony Mix. Mix advanced to the endzone and NBC announcer Tom Hammond excitedly proclaimed "It's another touchdown for the Redskins!"
 
We all know that if the kicking team recovers the kickoff the ball is dead at the spot of the recovery. Considering they spent the end of the first half going on about the fair catch free kick (probably the most obscure rule in the league) as the Redskins faced 4th and 2 with 2 seconds to go deep in their own territory, I'd have expected them to have known that Mix couldn't have scored.
 
Interesting Facts
 
Jones-Drew's 96 yard kick-off return was the longest in post-season history that did not end up a touchdown. In the end Fred Taylor punched it in on the next play after MJD returned the kick-off to the 1 yard line. Rashean Mathis picked off Roethlisberger twice on consecutive drives. More of the same would be most welcome for the Jags this week.
 
The Chargers only had 3 rushing yards in the first half against the Titans as they were shut-out at the break. Things got a little better, but Tomlinson only finished with 42 yards on the day. Crucially though he had a touchdown on 4th and goal which sealed the win and gave Tomlinson his first ever playoff victory. Vince Young had a difficult day in his first play off game (16/29 for 138 yards with an interception) but after losing Bo Scaife and Roydell Williams from an already mediocre receiving core, the writing was on the wall.
 
And Finally...
 
Could this finally be the making of Eli Manning? Two excellent performances by Manning in quick succession has breathed new life into the Giants playoff push. Before the Buffalo game I made a bold prediction to a friend of mine that the Giants were finished and wouldn't win another game. They went on to beat Buffalo (no thanks to Eli in fairness) and gave the Patriots a great game. Despite struggling in the first quarter against Tampa Bay, they came out firing, and Manning was particularly impressive. He showed so much poise in the pocket (which has been a major criticism of him) and kept good care of the football (no turnovers) and generally looked superb in picking up his first play-off victory.
 
I know people get on Eli's back for not being as good as Peyton, but he is progressing well, and seems to be growing up before our very eyes. I hope for his sake this is him becoming the player he promised to be when he was taken with the first pick of the draft in 2004. Eli has been inconsistent this year by even his own admission, but if he can give the Cowboys something to think about, maybe he can stick two fingers up at those who have written him off in the past. Good luck to him.