Four Downs with Stock & Doc
2009 Draft Preview
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
23/4/2009
This week, it's all about the draft as Stock and Doc invite James izzard inside the booth to forecast what's likely to happen in the biggest weekend of the football year not on the field. But the guys can't let the other major news pass without comment as John Madden bows out from our screens.
 The first pick in the 2009 Draft will be:
JIZ - Matthew Stafford With only days to go to the draft this is still not set in stone as has been the case the previous few years. Jason Smith and Aaron Curry are still serious options, however by a whisker I say the Lions call Stafford's name first. Stafford has the high ceiling and learning capacity to grow into a franchise QB, the Lions aren't close to challenging anytime soon so they have a year or two to develop the QB behind Culpepper. I could very well be proved wrong as any day now the Lions could announce they are taking somebody else, but at this stage Stafford has to be the favourite.
DOC Matthew Stafford
I would go elsewhere and pick Jason Smith but the Lions seem to be following the manual and getting their QB in for the future before building what he needs around him. Stafford seems to have fascinated teams and has the tools to work on. Thankfully Detroit do have Dante Culpepper to protect him so he wont be thrown in at the deep end in his rookie year, buts it's going to be Stafford left to overcome the curse of Bobby Lane.
STOCK Matthew Stafford Possibly safer directions to go in, but when you have so many holes to fill then getting a presence to lead the franchise both in the locker room and as a face of the franchise within a depressed city, then this is the potential turning point for the Lions. It's a less than ideal setting for a rookie QB to come in and succeed, but in a sense, it's a very good spot for him. There has been some investment in good talent to re-build a shattered team and there are high draft picks to surround Stafford with talent. Combine that with the lowest expectations in league history and a far from ravenous fan base and Stafford has a fairly pressure free situation in which to develop and flourish as an NFL quarterback.
 Your first round sleeper is:
JIZ - Darius Butler, CB, Cornerback
Butler is a cornerback who intrigues me and is actually my favourite defensive back in the class. Despite only average speed and bulk, Butler showed shut down skills in his senior year, he has football bloodlines and plays hard. With Decent height and speed, I definitely think he will be a starter sooner rather than later at the next level. I can see him being taken in the latter end of the first round if not a fortunate team will snap him up at the top of the 2nd.
DOC Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
English is skyrocketing up boards now. Championed by Mike Mayock he has all the tools to excel at the new premier position in the NFL, that of the 3-4 linebacker. He won't be amongst the first two going as that's locked on to be Everette Brown and Brian Orakpo but he will be taken well into the first round. The upside potential is too great.
STOCK Sean Smith, CB/S, Utah
He has prototypical big corner size, good speed and the versatility to play corner and safety giving teams late in the first round a fall back in case he can't play corner. He sounds to me like the ideal flyer that teams take late in round 1, ticks all the right boxes in terms of measurables and has great versatility to boot, someone has to take a risk at some point late in round one on him and they should feel pretty good about that risk.
 The big faller on Draft day will be:
JIZ - Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
I am a big fan of Wells as a player, I actually think he is the best talent at running back since Adrian Peterson however he has struggled to show any kind of durability, constant injuries and hobbling out of games will put teams off. Combine this with a couple of other factors, there does not appear to be many teams who openly need a workhorse running back. Teams are repeatedly finding value in the later rounds (See Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower) and with the running back by committees teams have implemented franchises may not be prepared to pay big for someone who may not touch the ball more than 15 times a game. If Wells gets past the Saints and Texans in the mid-teens he could well slide down to Arizona at #31 or even into the second round.
DOC Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Harvin's stock right now is tumbling. The widely reported failed drug test has hurt him even more, and the question marks over just how to get him involved are headaches that will compel teams to look elsewhere come Saturday evening. It's going to take a massive gamble on his obvious talent, despite the questions to get him to stay within the first round in my opinion. It's not impossible but I can see him going to the middle of the second round.
STOCK Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
I'm going to agree with our resident doctor on this one, there were enough question marks over Harvin's ability to adjust to playing wide receiver in the NFL that a black mark against his record such as positive tests for marijuana are simply catastrophic for his draft stock. I still think he's a very exciting talent and that with the right OC he can make an impact but with that risk of his need to adjust to the pros in terms of playing style, durability and such like that a general manager simply cannot put his neck on the block like this and spend a high pick on someone who could be headed for the league's substance abuse policy in short order.
 The order the four top tackles in the draft will be taken is:
JIZ - Jason Smith Eugene Monroe Andre Smith Michael Oher
Tough question and I have a sneaky suspicion one of Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith will go lower than expected as Kansas City or Seattle are strong contenders to trade down. Assuming they don't then I have Jason Smith going to St Louis, Eugene Monroe reuniting with Brandon Albert in Kansas City, Andre Smith going to the Bengals and Oher going straight after to either Oakland, San Francisco or Buffalo.
The one wild card scenario is that teams have heeded the warnings regarding Andre Smiths attitude and we see a Winston Justice style slide, some teams for sure will have crossed him off their boards, whether the Bengals have learned from previous mistakes remains to be seen.
DOC - Jason Smith Eugene Monroe Michael Oher Andre Smith
Agree James but with one change. However, I will predict where they'll go. Smith will go to St Louis, Monroe to the Bengals. Oher to the Jaguars and then Smith filling the Jason Peters size hole in Buffalo. If only Smith had stayed at the combine things might have been very different but sadly for him, he's cost himself some big dollars.
STOCK Jason Smith Andre Smith Eugene Monroe Michael Oher
J. Smith to St Louis, A. Smith to Cincinnati, Monroe to Jacksonville, Oher to fall somewhere in the teens. The toss up for me in this is Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe, I feel that Monroe is more pro ready and will be a better player year one and two than Smith, but he would seem to have the upside you desire to go that high that St Louis will take him. Andre Smith the Bengals for whatever reason would seem to be the only team high up in the draft not put off by his combine antics and willing to judge him as the player who was quite possibly the best player in all of college football last season, if they get that player then fair play but otherwise they seemed destined to make yet another catastrophically bad draft day decision. Monroe could go as high as 2 or 3 but I just don't see a string of teams taking tackles for some reason and then Oher looks destined to drop, he's been in the spotlight for too long and his weaknesses have been analysed, re-analysed and over-analysed. It's up to him to prove those doubters wrong.
Overtime! - Mark Sanchez will end up being drafted by:
JIZ - Washington Redskins
The rumours suggest that the Redskins are ready to jump ahead of the Seahawks and take the number #3 overall selection. The willing trading partner will be the Kansas City Chiefs who can trade down and take BJ Raji or Tyson Jackson. I can certainly see why the Redskins would entertain this idea and they have not been afraid of trading away draft picks to get the player they want in the past. This years and next years first rounders should be enough. Sanchez will come in straight away and compete with the incumbent Jason Campbell. If the Redskins and the Chiefs cant get the deal done then the Seahawks should be ready to pounce with the fourth overall pick. Other contenders include the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos.
DOC Seattle Seahawks
I like your thinking, and I agree it's all about the Seahawks, and they've certainly been blowing enough smoke out there to try and convince everyone that they really like Sanchez. But I reckon it's a double bluff and they really do like Sanchez. Matt Hasselbeck is 34 and has a back injury that just won't go away so the clock is ticking. Sanchez knows the pro-style and the WCO the Hawks run, and they have a guy in place so he isn't expected to start right away. And if Sanchez proves up to it then there'll be a long list of suitors to take Hass off their hands.
STOCK Washington Redskins
Now I'm not fully up to date on the Redskins' cap situation but they're usually in a position of showing complete disregard for multiple draft picks as they run out of money to spend on players and need to fill out their roster with players at the vet minimum. What better way to cut the cost of their rookies than to trade in a lot of picks for one big splash and get that shiny new franchise QB that Danny boy clearly wants? Jim Zorn may want to work further with Jason Campbell but I can't see that he has any power there, the scenario of his hiring and the constant talk of the next Redskins' HC has undermined his authority and after losing out on the Jay Cutler sweepstakes the Redskins can get their next QB at #3 as the Chiefs find their trading partner to skip down in the draft.
Overtime! John Madden will go down as the most respected person in the history of the NFL.
JIZ - FACT !
Well he certainly will be up there with the likes of Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry and Bill Walsh. It seems fitting that his final moments of commentary was during the end of a great Superbowl. Maddens enthusiasm and excitement for football was an initial attraction for me falling in love with his sport, with Madden in the commentary box football just felt right. Despite the odd mistake and the same fascination with Brett Favre, that I also happen to share, Madden was always insightful and entertaining to listen to. From the well known Booooom to the play by play analysis, his voice was recognizable around the world. He will certainly be missed in my household for sure.
DOC FACT !
Absolutely. Everyone in the football world knows John Madden. From the little kids who only know the game, to those who grew up watching him on TV and even those who recall Madden the coach. I'll give you a resume: hall of fame coach, multi Emmy winner, the name on the most successful sports franchise computer game ever and the pundit who everyone respects. Who else has that? When the definitive history of pro football is written others will obviously go down in folklore but this guy didn't just influence, he led in every aspect of the game he was involved in and was successful at it. He is the greatest.
STOCK FACT !
Does anyone have a bad word to say about the man? He is known the world over by American Football hardcore and casual fans alike, his coaching career was a shining beacon for short term success, his commentating career was a shining beacon for sustained excellence and his gaming series has helped increase the international exposure of what was for decades a sport known simply within the shores of North America. He has touched pretty much every corner of the sport and after Howard Cossell he will be remembered as the voice of the NFL. If anything the only downside I can see to his great commentating career is that it overshadows and often leaves his coaching career forgotten. He will never be forgotten and the NFL won't be the same without him.
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