Four Downs with Stock & Doc
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
23/1/2009
This week Stock and Doc debate Kurt Warner, who is the better defence in the AFC, the NFL's hiring's and firings, the futures of T.O. and L.T. as well as concerns for the TV coverage in the UK and closing with a look at the players who have declared for the 2009 NFL draft.
 Kurt Warner is a Hall of Fame quarterback.
STOCK FACT ! Two time league MVP, one Superbowl win under his belt, the opportunity for another and the QB behind one of the greatest offences of all-time. His career had dipped somewhat after his time in St Louis and it rightly brought into question his Hall of Fame credentials, but this season with Arizona should put him over the top. That however is not to say he'll be a first ballot candidate, I think that would be excessive. Critics would suggest that his peaks have coincided with passing the ball in wide open offences to an excellent group of receivers in both St Louis and Arizona. I'd agree with that criticism and it's enough to say that he shouldn't go in at the first or even second time of asking, but it's not enough to keep him out. His rιsumι is beyond repute, he'll rightfully get his gold jacket down the line when it's his turn, probably between Favre and Manning's inductions in about 8 or 9 years time.
DOC FACT ! Two Superbowls with two teams nigh on a decade apart. A League MVP award, a host of records and playing a part in some of the most exciting offences in recent history. Yes, I think Kurt is a HoF QB. His performance on Sunday was masterful. He took what he was given by the Eagles and executed perfectly. That is what he has done throughout his career, minus the aberration in New York with the Giants, a time I think we all now recognise must be an exception. Kurt deserves it for his performances on the field and his perseverance on it.
 The Baltimore Ravens defence is better than the Pittsburgh Steelers defence.
STOCK FICTION ! It's a toss-up between these two year on year, they consistently field outstanding defences and they seem to go back and forth on which is the best. On a decade's body of work I'd argue that the Ravens defence is better, but this year in isolation I think that clearly isn't quite the case. The Ravens even this year are capable of putting on a better single game performance, but in terms of consistently great defence the Steelers have to take it and not just looking at it statistically which doesn't tell close to the full story. The Steelers have benefitted from fewer injuries on defence and that has enabled a greater consistency in personnel and performance, particularly with fewer breakdowns in the secondary which were particularly telling this weekend. It's not by a huge margin, but it seems pretty clear to me that Blitzburgh was better than Organised Chaos this season.
DOC FACT ! I know statistically the Steelers defence is the best but I would take the Ravens' over the Steelers' any day. They have the reputation, they have a ball hawk superstar safety. They have the best defensive player of the last twenty years in the middle and have a defensive line that can disrupt anyone. The secondary is slightly better in Pittsburgh but they don't have the 'fear factor' the Ravens. They kept their team in the game this past Sunday in a way that the Steelers D never really has had to do. I'm just more impressed with the Ravens, and hopefully the loss of Rex Ryan won't hurt that badly. I'd always take the Ravens personally, but then with either you can't really lose.
 Josh McDaniel will follow Charlie Weis' and Romeo Crennel's example and flop following leaving the Patriots for Head Coaching positions.
STOCK FICTION ! Just because a coin lands on head twice doesn't bear any relation to its likelihood to do so a 3rd time. Crennel failed because in a franchise that hasn't had any semblance of success for decades, Weis failed in a school that is a decaying relic of college football that is completely out of touch with what is necessary to succeed in modern college football. McDaniel is going to a shining beacon of consistency in the AFC West with the plum job of the off-season, an offence in place and he's brought in an experienced defensive co-ordinator with a fine track record of building defences and transitioning personnel from one front to another. Is there something inherently difficult in leaving the Patriots? Yes of course, they are one of the best run franchises in the leagues with an outstanding network of scouts; anywhere else is a step down in terms of your tools to work with. However McDaniel isn't taking up a poison chalice like Cleveland or Notre Dame, he's going to a similarly well run franchise. The failings of Weis and Crennel won't have a bearing on McDaniel and I think he'll be more successful than both.
DOC FICTION ! Clearly. He cannot screw up like this. If he manages to survive the tough early years I believe he will face, then he will come out the other side more successful than Weis and Crennel. Mike Nolan is a great pick-up to run the defence and the move to a 3-4 should benefit potential busts Jarvis Moss and Tom Crowder. He's got a franchise QB in Cutler, some great WR's and everything's there if Nolan works his magic.
 What was the bigger shock? That Jon Gruden was fired, or the time it took the Buccs to act?
STOCK NEITHER The Bucs I think knew exactly what they were doing. In the shape of Raheem Morris they had a guy on their staff that they clearly think highly enough of to give a shot at being their head coach, comfortable enough that they could talk a long calm look at the direction of the franchise without making a rash decision in firing a coach with a Superbowl ring and yet still relatively young in relation to the coaching position. I'm sure the day after the Oakland loss many in Tampa wanted to get the knives out immediately for Gruden and the team's awful finish, but with having a guy like Morris they could take things more slowly, carry out due diligence and take a look in the cold light of day at Gruden's merits and failings. They clearly decided they didn't like the direction he wanted to take them and they've handed the reins to Morris. Sure they missed out on some of the big head coaching candidates, the hot young prospects, but I'm sure they feel happy with the one they've brought up in house. It's refreshing to see a team not rush into a decision like this.
DOC The time it took to act. I said in our season recap a few weeks ago that for the second year, the Buccs slumped big time in the last third of the season. The stadium was not full on the last day for a game that couold have taken them to the post-season. And they lost, they blew it. Gruden is meant to be an offensive guru yet his offence regularly featured in the lower half of the league, he couldn't decide on a QB. He won the Superbowl built on Tony Dungey's hard work and had had a defence for years propping things up. And that was Monte Kiffin's. I don't think Chucky can have any complaints whatsoever. It just seems odd that it took this long to do.
OVERTIME!
Dallas would be better off if they cut Terrell Owens.
STOCK FICTION ! What, and leave the passing game in the ever so unreliable hands of Roy E. Williams? I hardly think that'd be particularly prudent planning. Do the Cowboys need a change in their personnel at wide-out? Yes, they're all big play threats and there's no reliable target, there's no chain-mover, no-one that you can rely upon to pick up the key conversion on a hitch or an in route. They lack the Derrick Mason, the Hines Ward type to be depended on in the crunch to come up with a key conversion and keep drives moving them and that has cost them for a long time. The only issue with that is there aren't Derrick Mason's and Hines Ward's standing on every street corner. Much as trading in TO for Ward or Mason would drastically improve the Cowboys that isn't something that they can achieve unless they get very lucky with some roster moves. Trading in TO for a more humble, less disruptive, more reliable receiver is something the Cowboys desperately need, but it's not something that's out there to be done. Losing TO would make the Cowboys a worse football team. He's not perfect but he's the best they've got.
DOC FICTION ! Abject, total and utter nonsense. In cutting your biggest weapon how are you better? So what if everyone is sitting around, having group hugs and going out for lemonade together? This is football, and it's all about winners. And T.O. is a winner. He clearly isn't full on the same page as Jason Garrett, but then neither is Tony Romo. And who is more important to the future of the franchise out of those, never mind who's got all the dollars tied up in them? Exactly. It comes back to Jerry not having the right coaches in place, and it stems from there. The problem is not T.O. The players like him, respect him and learn from him. Who is to say that morale won't go down if he left? All this and I haven't even mentioned that it will cost us more to cut him than it will to keep him. It's typical Ed Werner/ESPN stirring. Dallas gets ratings so that's what they focus on; facts come a distant second half the time.
The San Diego Chargers should trade away LaDainian Tomlinson.
STOCK FICTION ! For the return they'd get for a back who has finished the last two seasons worn down and with fairly severe injuries, it's not worth what they'd be losing. I severely doubt that they'd get anything more than a 3rd or 4th rounder for Tomlinson at this stage of his career and whilst at the moment backs seem to be a dime a dozen in the college ranks to be plucked from the draft, Tomlinson is a rare talent. In an era of two down backs, one down backs and running backs by committee, Tomlinson is still a three down back who can take a heck of a pounding and still put out big numbers. He may not be able to do it for a full 16 game season anymore, but if he's healthy and the Chargers need a big running game, who do they want to turn to? A healthy LaDainian Tomlinson or a mid-round rookie combined with Darren Sproles? I'd take the former seven days a week and twice on Sunday.
DOC FICTION ! LT is clearly not a happy camper in SD these days. The silence on his future from AJ Smith has clearly rankled with someone who was with the Chargers throughout the bad years early in the decade. The other question is whether LT's best days are behind him, and his productivity will drop whilst his ability to play through injuries goes up. Based on the last two seasons, he's probably hit his wall as all running backs do. The question of what they do with him will have to be addressed soon, but unless someone gives an offer to good to refuse, he should stay in San Diego. The other alternative is they cut him and let him choose where he goes. That's probably more likely than anything else right now, but it looks like the era of LT in SD has come to an end.
Alistair Kirkwood's answers to questions regarding NFL TV coverage in the UK are a source of major concern for the game in this country.
STOCK FICTION ! I don't think it's any more worrying than if you were to take a look at the state of the NFL in any off-season. The fact of the matter remains that American Football is a niche sport in the UK and it will be difficult for it to ever get a firm foothold in the British sports psyche. The biggest question I'd raise is why have a Q&A session such as this when there are clearly no answers to give other than we're in negotiations and there's nothing we can tell you yet, but I guess it shows that there's things being discussed, which will set some minds at rest. However on the other hand, it also breeds unease amongst other minds that there's nothing concrete in place. I personally won't be too worried by this; in the current financial climate people are going to be tightening the purse strings. The greatest sign of hope in my mind in this is that the commitment to the International Series is concrete until after the 2010 game. Most estimates suggest that is right around the time when the world will start to come out of the clutches this credit crunch, so we should be able to ride out the financial storm with the current agreement in place. With that being the case I find it hard to believe that the NFL will allow their product to be taken off of TV and out of the public eye when they're playing a game here every year. These are tough times for everyone, but I think the NFL will come through it stronger with the right management on both sides of the pond.
DOC FACT ! Absolutely. There is no other way of looking at this. Much as a terrestrial contract is essential to allow everyone to see it, if Sky does not show the NFL then you are killing the game in the UK stone dead. Forget the Wembley games, this October's would be the last. If the worst case happens, and I don't believe it will after all, we've been here before with doom mongerer Kirkwood's warnings of impending disaster, and I don't believe the NFL is stupid enough to let it happen and things have tended to improve. But economically we are in unprecedented times, even for Sky Sports. They have to look at their ratings in the cold light of day and measure the cost against this in advertising revenue etc. If this happens, hopefully the NFL will see the long-term picture and the benefits of keeping it on the screens come what may. But its down to one man to make sure that happens and if we lose coverage, I expect Kirkwood to lose his job.
The player who has declared for the 2009 NFL draft who could have most done with another year in college is:
STOCK Aaron Maybin Any time I see a sophomore jump it's always a bit of a worry as to whether they can make an immediate impact in the NFL, this year there are seven sophomores in the draft. James Casey had to jump because he's already 24; his stock was only going to drop if he stayed in school. Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy and Mike Goodson are all tailbacks and thus minimising wear and tear in college is a good thing for their pro careers. Maclin is a slight worry, phenomenal talent but a sophomore WR is a worry in terms of how long his development will take, particularly going to a pro style offence from the spread. Crabtree has a similar concern but he has just ridiculous talent. Maybin is the odd one out in my estimation, any time I've watched Penn State he's never really stood out at me as a guy who is an exceptional athlete or an exceptional football player and I think an extra year or two in college would've served him well in his development. Under sized, under developed, he's got a long learning curve ahead of him in my opinion and whilst he might be making himself money sooner he might've set himself up better with an extra year back at University Park with Joe Paterno.
DOC Jeremy Maclin You took the words right out of my mouth. Maclin is a phenomenal talent but I don't think he's developed fully to really make an impact in the NFL . However, I can understand why he's gone. Chase Daniel has graduated to the pro's, and his production and numbers are likely to tail off. So his stock is likely as high as it could be. I can't blame him but I don't think it's going to pay off in the long-term for him. The other name I will put out there is Knowshown Moreno; a player who I think needs another year, no matter how talented he clearly is.
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