Four Downs with Stock & Doc
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
25/10/2008
 
This week Stock and Doc look ahead to the NFL game in London this weekend, focusing on what will happen on the field, and whether the skies will be a problem for the game's future. In other news is removing your Head Coach mid-season a way to resolve your problems and the guys look at Penn State, and ask if they are legitimate National title contenders ahead of their huge game against the Buckeyes this weekend.
 
The winner of this weekend's International Series game at Wembley will be…
 
STOCK – The San Diego Chargers – The Chargers have started this season as inconsistently as they started the last. However now that the Broncos are stumbling the carrot is being dangled in front of them, they should start to chase it. They've got the undeniable quality and it is balanced across the team where as the Saints are heavily unbalanced towards the offence. Phillip Rivers this season seems to have progressed from being a gutsy tough QB to being a good QB and against the Saints quite frankly woeful secondary he could get into a good rhythm with his receivers if the weather allows. The Saints will have to turn this game into a high scoring affair to have a shot at winning and the question will be whether the weather will allow that, the Chargers are certainly susceptible to shedding points but how much will the loss of Reggie Bush hurt the Saints?
 
DOC – The San Diego Chargers – Two teams who look as inconsistent as any in the NFL this year, when it's awash with inconsistency. The Chargers for me can run the ball and in the somewhat inevitable situation whereby the rain and the pitch conspire to rob us of the aerial treat that we possibly could have with Messrs Brees and Rivers, this will be crucial. Throw in that the Saints can't really stop the run without Sedrick Ellis and that's a blueprint for the Chargers to retain their position on the outskirts of the AFC playoff race. LT may not be the force he once was, but I look at Darren Sproles and providing Norv puts the ball in his hands, I think he will be the difference maker. Much as he's far from my favourite player the loss of Reggie Bush is awful for the Saints, and they're going to fall further behind in the NFC South race.
 
The weather this weekend will determine the long-term future of NFL games in London.
 
STOCK – FACT ! – It won't be something we'll see immediately but the NFL desperately needs a good game hopefully this weekend but if not that then certainly quickly within the time frame they have committed to. We've certainly seen that the fans in the UK will come back after a bad game (we just about managed to get the worst game of the season last year) so it won't be an immediate thing, but at some point the fans will want to see a good game and hopefully the fact that it isn't raining all week this week will mean the pitch can stand up to the game this week. The other factor that affected the game negatively (in my opinion) last year was that the players only got in on Friday morning and would still have been fighting jet lag on Sunday. This time round there's no excuse for that, they will have been here nearly a full week and should be ready and raring to go. I hope the weather is good on Sunday because a good game with two balanced offences should see the NFL cement its place in the UK for their annual event. Poor weather and another stinker of a game could see a downturn in interest, not in the NFL (I think that's assured that they can build their fan base here) but very possibly a downturn in any interest in parting with a healthy wedge of cash to travel to London for an NFL game that hasn't lived up to the hype yet.
 
DOC – FICTION ! – Last year, I know the pitch was used as an excuse for the poor performance, ably assisted by the lovely British weather, and it did lead to a rather drab atmosphere. The atmosphere disappointed me somewhat, and this could be due to any number of reasons, probably far more than I can list here. The thing is this is the NFL regular season, and it's not a show. It is deadly serious. Is it profitable? Yes. And until they find somewhere more profitable and perhaps even learn there are other places in the UK, however unlikely that is, London will remain. The long-term future of Wembley may need to be called into question if the pitch cuts up and the lessons of last year are not learnt, and perhaps finally the Twickenham issue may come onto the agenda. But thankfully, I can't see the weather being enough to put the NFL off. If it rains they can always move it earlier in the season.
 
Firing your Head Coach during the season is not a good thing to do.
 
STOCK – FACT ! – The Rams are a rare exception that do not prove the rule, they had to fire Linehan, he was quite possibly one of the most inept head coaches in league history and it is becoming blindingly apparent now just how inept he was. Making this move mid-season might be what the players want and it loosens them up to play for a new coach but can it really change the identity of the teams? Most of these teams are where they are due to a lack of talent, no matter who much you shine up a turd, it's still a turd and the 49ers, Raiders and Rams will learn this at some point. Firing someone mid-season doesn't allow time to change any schemes and it doesn't really allow the interim head coach to imprint his identity on a team. Might it work at times? Yes, the Rams are a 1 in a million example that it can work, but is it a hard & fast rule that teams should be going with the next time they go through a slump? No, there's only so much head coaching talent around that teams deem suitable for the NFL, this isn't the premiership or the NHL, you can't make changes quickly in the NFL, it's a slow moving intricate league, you can't chop and change your coaches to give your players a boot up the arse every time they're not earning their game cheques.
 
DOC – FICTION ! – Case study 1 – the St Louis Rams. Yes, it just shows you how completely and utterly inept Scott Linehan is as a head coach, but it also shows you what can happen if you are bold enough, once you recognise something isn't working, to do it immediately rather than waiting till the end of the season. I won't buy the Raiders example simply because there you are working for Al Davis and that excludes you from any semblance of working in any circumstances that closely resemble the real world. And I'll cite another example where I would guarantee things would improve if a Head Coach was removed – the Dallas Cowboys. Wade is a dead duck HC and looks completely out of his depth. Even if Jerry Jones doesn't drive straight to the TV studios and tell Bill Cowher he has as many lorry loads of cash outside as he wants to come to Dallas, removing Wade and his weak grip on this team would boost the Cowboys. Removing a coach can be a good move, and people should not be afraid of doing so.
 
Penn State, if they overcome Ohio State this weekend will be in prime position to get to the National Championship game.
 
STOCK – FACT ! – But they won't do it. The Nittany Lions have had a few good teams since they joined the Big Ten, and this just might be the best of the bunch, however, have they won at the Horseshoe since they entered the Big Ten? That's a no then. Ohio State showed a return to form by trouncing Michigan State last week, yes they regularly fall apart down the stretch but that doesn't change the fact that the Buckeyes laid the first hammer blow on the Spartans, if they collapse down the stretch it'll be from the Buckeye game, not the Buckeyes benefitting from the Spartan collapse. The Buckeyes are flying in under the RADAR to this game, all of the talk is about the Nittany Lions and them building to another undefeated season for Joe Pa, well the Buckeyes are defending their Big Ten title, they're playing at the Horseshoe and they've quietly re-built since that demolition job in LA. The Nittany Lions don't win in the Horseshoe, the Buckeyes don't lose the Big Ten title and unfortunately we get to build towards the Buckeyes closing on another BCS Title Game defeat. The one plus from this game is that the QB battle between Daryl Clark and Terrelle Pryor should actually be an interesting and exciting one to see, a rarity indeed from the Big Ten.
 
DOC – FACT ! – Joe Pa and his Nittany Lions face this weekend what is, in essence a de facto Big X championship game. The Buckeyes trounced Michigan State at the weekend, but I'm not letting that fool me. The Spartans regularly choke when faced with big games. I fancy them, as I'm not sure the Buckeyes defence can cope with the speed Penn State offers. So looking past that, I think Penn State will be in a very strong position to make the big game. Texas are the best team in the country by a mile but they have to run a gauntlet like no other over the next few weeks, and one loss is inevitable. Even if they get this, they may still be ranked above the Lions in the BCS standings. Alabama have the SEC gauntlet to run, including games against LSU who look like they are struggling and a likely Championship game with Florida to overcome. I can't see Nick Saban's young team managing it. Which leaves Penn State sneaking in the back door right now. Of all three top teams, they are the one that dare not lose the most.