Four Downs with Stock & Doc
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
3/10/2008
 
This week Stock and Doc chew the fat over the surprising undefeated teams of the AFC, and whether there is a shift in the balance of power in the NFL. In the ranks of the college leagues, can Nick Saban lead the Crimson Tide all the way to the National Championship game, or will USC rebound to get all the way?
 
Out of the 4-0 Bills and the 4-0 Titans, which team will go farthest this season?
 
DOC – TENNESSEE - I like Buffalo and think they're an 11-win team, but the Titans are on fire right now. Heck, get VY involved in some gadget plays and this offence may become even better. The defence looks unstoppable, and could feature some players who early-on should be contenders for MVP. Chris Johnson has, as we know insane (some may say, 'sick') speed and has hit the ground running in his NFL career. Kerry Collins has done a sterling job of handling the offence as well, getting over the issues that VY clearly needs to sort out. And its about time (as I said in my preview for the Titans) that Jeff Fisher is recognised as one of the absolute best coaches in the National Football League. With Jacksonville struggling with injuries and Indy not hitting their stride yet, the Titans may well shock the world and win the South!
 
STOCK – BUFFALO – Just to be different, when in doubt, always disagree with the Doc. The Bills have the easier division; the Jags and Colts have flattered to deceive thus far but are still better than anything the Bills will face in the division thanks to Brady's injury. That alone gives the Bills an edge for getting a bye week and homefield advantage. They're a young team, they're ahead of the curve, there's no reason for them to feel the pressure this season and when you're playing at a high level with no pressure, the sky is the limit. Both should go far though, strong defence and strong running game is a sound template for success.
 
The balance of power in the NFL has shifted from the AFC to the NFC.
 
DOC – FACT ! – I think the stronger shift that has come this year is largely down to injuries. Tom Brady is a loss that I don't think anyone can come back from. Peyton Manning and others' injuries in Indy have hindered their progress. The much-touted Jags have been decimated by them, and even the Chargers have been hampered by knocks and niggles to LT and Gates. Heck, that we have two 4-0 teams in the AFC and they're called Buffalo and Tennessee shows you what has happened to the historically better AFC teams. The balance has shifted in the past year but I think its more just levelling things up than seeing a shift back to the Conference powerhouse of the 1980's and 1990's. Simply having the toughest division in all football (overtaking the SEC) doesn't make the NFC that much better. The North is moderate, the South is the same and the West? Not a lot there.
 
STOCK – FACT ! – The keel has been well and truly evened this season, we started to see it to an extent last season (32-32 in non-conference play) but this year with Brady gone and Manning hurting the balance has been shifted with the NFC seemingly ready to take the ascendency as the superior conference with the NFC East taking the lead with four playoff calibre teams. The rest of the NFC needs to catch up though for the balance to be truly even, the AFC has good teams across the conference, the NFC is far too heavily balanced to the eastern seaboard the North has taken a step back from last year, the South is starting to re-emerge but the West is still absolutely dire and useless. The NFC hasn't re-taken the lead, but it's getting back to a balance, you can't say anymore that a 4th place in the AFC would make the playoffs in the NFC as you could've said a few years ago.
 
The Alabama Crimson Tide are National Championship game bound.
 
DOC – FICTION ! – So they blew out Georgia, and now, surprise surprise, the Saban hype kicks in and they're atop everyone's 'trendy pick' list for the big game. They've played one SEC game and they systematically dismantled the top-ranked team in the SEC but its still not going to happen for them. In the SEC everyone will lose a game – no-one will run that conference undefeated, and if they all lose one game then the likes of Georgia, LSU and Florida will likely end the season strongly, thus outflanking them. Outside of the SEC the Big XII is stacked with great teams, led by high quality quarterbacks and whilst they're going to pound each other around over the forthcoming weeks, one of them will emerge as a one-loss team and against top foes have to be fancied to take a National Championship spot. Alabama may still have a steamed-up Gator team to face And all this, is before looking at a BCS busting small-team! And BYU stand atop that mantle right now. It just looks like the Crimson Tide will get forced out near the top of the rankings. They'll go BCS Bowl in my view, but no higher. Next year, however, will be a different matter.
 
STOCK – FICTION ! – Just last week Georgia were the SEC team that everyone was saying was the best team about and that would have trouble running the murderer's row that is an SEC schedule, well now that mantle falls to Alabama and they as with every other SEC team will fail to make it all the way through. With LSU, Auburn (who they haven't beaten for a rare old while now) and so on trying to turn the Tide, it's an impossible task. The SEC is the strongest team in the nation and has at least five teams worthy of a top ten standing at the end of the season, the only issue with that is that the game on Saturday night was the first in a string of games where they knock each other off and leave the path open for USC, the Big XII and even BYU to get into the national title picture ahead of any SEC team.
 
Much like LSU last year, USC will end up playing for the National Championship by default as every top ten team loses a game.
 
DOC – FACT ! – USC will likely quietly win out and put themselves very near the top of the rankings. Despite trying to play Tyrelle Pryor in order to get the judges to give Ohio State another shot, they've screwed their chance up for this year. We got Penn State who is probably the best team in the Big 10 right now, but it's a gauntlet they'll have to run – one slip up and that's them out. They won't outflank some of the others. The Big XII as I was just saying will beat up on each other and probably take a place – Oklahoma really should be favoured right now, though the Longhorns and Mizzou offer intriguing prospects of coming up the rails. I think USC does what they do best and win out to end up against the best team left standing from the SEC or Big XII. Maybe its not right, but its likely the way it'll be.
 
STOCK – FICTION ! – USC will play for the National Title, but not every top ten will lose a game, BYU are undefeated ranked at #8 and have a legit shot at not only making a BCS bowl game, they'll do that their only real test remaining is Utah in the final conference game, but getting all of the way to the BCS title game. BYU are ranked high already and with everyone else losing games around them it's not at all inconceivable that they will rise to a top two position in the polls, the only question is whether the strength of schedule will pull them out of the top 2 in the BCS poll at the end of the year. USC vs. BYU, well that could be an interesting one for the National Media to try and spin.