Four Downs with Stock & Doc
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
3/9/2008
 
After previewing each Division over the past eight weeks, Stock and Doc are joined by fellow Diner writer Chris Brophy to gaze into their crystal balls and deliver their super-sized NFL season preview, making their predictions for the next few months.
 
The playoff teams from each conference will be:
 
AFC
 
  Chris – Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers and Broncos. The AFC East is still not strong enough to send anyone but the Patriots although they won't go anywhere near 16-0 again. The AFC South is as tough as old boots and whilst I like the direction the Texans are going in, they don't have enough to challenge the top pairing whereas the Titans go how Vince Young goes. If the Broncos defence improves, they already have enough offensive weapons to improve on last year's showings and I see Jay Cutler as a possible pro bowl QB, they'll be a wild card behind the division winning Chargers.
 
Stock – Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Broncos, Chargers, and Texans. The first three are still the cream of the crop in their respective divisions. Even with the supposed improvements from the AFC East the Patriots are still leagues ahead, the Colts will still efficiently stumble through their schedule and the Steelers are the best of a bad bunch in the AFC North. Then in the West the Broncos are ready to be led on to the division title by Jay Cutler who will break out as the 3rd best QB in the league this year. The final spot will come from the South and I think the Texans are in position to take it. The Jags have stumbled through pre-season and their big improvement at DE only had the good grace to show up at the end of camp. That leaves the Texans and the Titans on a level footing with them. The Titans are far too one dimensional and for either of these two to succeed the Jaguars in 2nd place in the South the Titans need to improve their passing game or the Texans need to improve their running game, I think the latter is far more likely than the former barring a QB change in Tennessee.
 
Doc – In seed order - Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, Jaguars, Colts, Titans. New England canters to their division, albeit with more opposition than last year – but still not a lot. The Chargers do to the same in the soft West, although injuries are going to hit them hard – Gates, Rivers and Merriman to name just three. The Steelers will quietly but competently go about clinching the North, and in the South it is finally the end of the Colts dynasty as the Jaguars overpower the frail looking Colts. The Colts will still get a wild card berth as they have too much talent. The Jets, Bengals and Broncos don't have enough to clinch that last wild card so I'm going for the Titans. Jeff Fisher coaches his team to play tough and tight and VY back in his groove nicks the #6 spot.
 
NFC
 
Chris – Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Bears, Saints, Seahawks. I don't see the West providing anyone other than Seattle again. The East will again see all four teams try and kill each other but the Cowboys have a vast amount of talent and I think with McNabb a full year on from his knee injury the Eagles can get back to post season. Their team has a solid core and the systems they run are so well embedded. As long as the Vikings get a decent level of play from Tarvaris Jackson they have the talent elsewhere to take the division. The Bears are going to edge the Pack who has lots of talent but the Favre fall out and Aaron Rodgers makes me feel they will be inconsistent. The Saints bounce back from a disappointing 2007 to be the only post season qualifiers from the South and the Cowboys biggest challengers in the NFC.
 
Stock – Cowboys, Saints, Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, and Redskins. The Cowboys are still very much the class of this conference for a 16 game season, the playoffs remains to be seen from them but they've made some key personnel acquisitions to try to get over that ten year hump. The Packers and Vikings will duel it out in the North but I feel the Packers have the edge with Rodgers at QB as a more dependable option than Tarvaris Jackson who I feel will still be too erratic. The West will still be dull and predictable, the other teams will flatter to deceive and leave an above average Seahawks team to walk to the division title again. The Saints will take the South off of the back of an explosive offence, though this division is starting to look stronger than I thought it would be. The final playoff spot (again) will go to the Redskins, a strong core of talent returns and either Jason Campbell or Todd Collins will be able to manage a strong running game and a strong defence to a wildcard spot.
 
Doc – In seed order – Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers. Dallas is easily the best team in the NFC and romp to back-to-back Divisional crowns. The Vikings are a team on the top, and Jackson does just enough not to disrupt that. Seattle is there by default. Aaron Rodgers finds his feet enough to lead the Pack to nine wins; the talent around him is too much not to assist him in his first year. And the Eagles, assuming the World's Largest Qb ego stays healthy will bounce back. Brian Westbrook is too good a player not to be in the post-season.
 
The biggest disappointment in 2008 will be:
 
Chris – The New York Jets. Brett Favre has come over to upgrade the QB position and they spent mega bucks in free agency but I'm not convinced on either of their major defensive additions (Pace and Jenkins) and my feeling is for what they have spent they won't get bang for their buck. They expect to serious challenge the Patriots in the division and go deep into post season but it all reeks of desperation to me. A losing record and Eric Mangini looking for a new job come 2009.
 
Stock – Jacksonville. All of that investment on a defensive end and he doesn't show up until the end of pre-season, well that's not going to help. There's a lot of pressure on Derrick Harvey to get a lot of pressure because there's not a great deal of help from the rest of that line and the wide receivers still don't look good enough to threaten the best teams. They'll still be there or there abouts in the wildcard mix, I can't see them falling off of the table but when they once again fall away from the Colts it'll be tough for Jack Del Rio to keep this team on track when they've made such a clear statement of intent to go out and win the division this year. Plus can David Garrard really get that lucky (as he himself put it) to only throw 3 interceptions in a season again? I don't think so somehow.
 
Doc – The Cleveland Browns – I know I tipped them many weeks back to topple the Steelers but as the season has loomed that schedule has loomed large on the horizon and it's an incredibly tough. Injuries have already begun to eat away at the roster and I am firmly of the opinion that Derek Anderson is a lucky college QB who hasn't been really found out yet. They'll start slowly and limp along all year behind Pittsburgh. In all honesty, I think they'll be lucky to break .500.
 
The most improved team in 2008 will be:
 
Chris – If it's on wins alone it's hard not to pick the Dolphins. Even two wins doubles their win total of 2007! They will improve and I think they can get to 6-10, maybe even .500 with some breaks but my pick for this question is the New Orleans Saints who will not only bounce back from a 7-9 record in 2007 to win the division and make the play-offs but I see them capable of getting to the Championship Game again, much like 2006. I like the additions of Vilma and Ellis on defence, they also got some bodies in the secondary to help out (anything that keeps Jason David on the sideline is a good thing). Offensively, they have the ability to be potent although more consistency running the ball would be good to see.
 
Stock – Miami. OK it's not very difficult to improve upon 1-15 and they have the most scope for improvement, but I think they're really going to make a big stride this year. A lot has been made of the improvements of the Bills and the Jets but I think they're being very much overrated, particularly the Bills. Much is being talked about of the Bills taking the step to really challenge the Patriots this year, but I simply can't see the basis for that theory, I can see a step back for the Bills this year, too much too soon for this team. The Jets will no doubt take strides this year but not far enough to challenge for the playoffs, frailties still remain on the run defence and whilst there have been some flashy signings, the general talent level isn't greatly improved for my money. This is where the Dolphins have improved greatly, they've not made the flashy signings of the Jets but they've made a whole host of good and solid pick-ups to greatly improve the base talent level of the team. The offensive line should be good, the defence is looking much stronger up front and I think the Dolphins are going to turn some heads and take 2nd place in the AFC East with a 7-9 record.
 
Doc – It's hard to disagree with the belief that it will be the Saints, but I'll go elsewhere and plump for the Denver Broncos. Random Roger has reduced Brandon Marshall's ban to something sensible (reduced it?! What a joke he is for giving him one in the first place), Eddie Royal will be an impact player in some way. I've been on the Jay Cutler bandwagon for a year or two now, and this year he can emerge as a top tier QB amongst the real elite – he is that good. The Broncos always have good rushers in their blocking schemes, and Selvin Young is threatening to look like he never quite managed at Texas. The defence will improve – moving DJ Williams back to his natural spot will help enormously. However, as I said earlier, I think they just miss out on the post-season by the smallest of margins.
 
The Superbowl Champions will be:
 
  Chris – The Jacksonville Jaguars! I actually think this coming season is more wide open than ever and once you get to post season, it really is a case of who finds their form much like the Giants last year. I just have a feeling the Jags will struggle to get past the Colts in the division again but post season might see someone else take care of the Colts leaving the way clear for arguably the AFC's most balanced team to sneak through on the inside of the rail.
 
Stock – Dallas. OK, so they've got to win that first playoff game for over a decade first, but I think that will come and they will go all the way this year, not choosing to spurn homefield advantage this time around. The passing game will again be strong off of the back of Romo, Owens and Witten. The offensive line will pave the way for Barber and Jones. The defence (which was strong last year anyway) looks to be even better this year. They are the class of the NFC and with the AFC tougher at the top, they're a safer pick. The Patriots might be the obvious choice in some quarters but can Brady really repeat last season? What's the Patriots mindset after coming so close to perfection and falling at the final hurdle? But most importantly, that Patriots defence is starting to look really old, a major changing of the guard at linebacker is needed in short order and Jerod Mayo can't do that on his own.
 
Doc – New England Patriots. Dallas is primed to dominate the regular season, see my overtime picks for evidence of that. But the question marks still linger quite strongly in my mind about the mental toughness of this team in the post-season. One win and they could go all the way. But they still need to get it. In the AFC, the Chargers are going to be hamstrung with injuries and the Patriots will simply be there to clean up, despite their weaknesses and frailties, and win like the Belichick-Brady partnership does best. I just want everyone to know I only made this prediction to the Dark Side in the hope that's it a curse!
 
OVERTIME!
 
The 2008 Rookie of the Year will be:
 
Chris – Jonathan Stewart (RB, Panthers). He'll share time with DeAngelo Williams but I think he'll gradually get more of the workload as the season goes on. The Panthers want to be a running football team and have the OL in place for Stewart to be successful. 1300 yards and 10TD's are possible.
 
Stock – Keith Rivers (LB, Bengals). With Glenn Dorsey having injury troubles again I'm going to back a linebacker who will rack up a huge tackle total in a defence that will struggle to get off of the field in Cincinnati. I don't think any of the running backs will get enough carries (all in committees) to get the gaudy rushing totals to take this crown and Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan I certainly can't see putting together good enough campaigns to get consideration. That leaves a wide receiver (yeah right) or a defender to take the crown, Rivers is that defender and even with missing time in training camp due to a holdout, linebacker is a position that doesn't change a great deal from college to the NFL and Rivers should be able to hit the ground running for the Bengals.
 
Doc – Sedrick Ellis (DT, Saints). It's somewhat an unfashionable pick. I mean how often do DT's really get the headlines? Not very often that's for sure. Ellis was arguably the most gifted player in this year's draft and went to a team where now, with injuries he is going to be needed to play a big role instantly. Occupying two guys to allow Grant and Smith to press that pass rush, Ellis will prove his worth to the Saints in 2008.
 
The 2008 Offensive Player of the Year will be:
 
  Chris – Drew Brees (QB, Saints). As previously mentioned, I like the Saints firepower on offense and Brees is the focal point, the man who makes it all tick. The Saints are also a pass first team, who use the short passing attack almost like a dimension of their running game; hence, I can see Brees posting excellent stats. 4500 yards and 35TD's is not beyond his abilities and recent seasons have seen other QB's go way beyond those figures but they would still represent an excellent haul. Add in I expect the Saints to contend for the NFC Championship and I can see Brees getting a lot of the credit for it.
 
Stock – LaDanian Tomlinson (RB, Chargers). Another year, another 1,500+ yards for Tomlinson, take away a strong backup (Michael Turner) and replace him with a couple of backs who are very slotted in where and when they can be involved in the offence (Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester) and you've got a heavy workload for Tomlinson as the Chargers look to get over the top this year. The Chargers aren't aging but there are a lot of miles on some comparatively young legs in San Diego so the clock may be ticking on this team. Norv Turner isn't daft, he knows that running backs have limited shelf life and Tomlinson is stretching that already, he may be an all-time great but it'd be daft to try to extend him. Get what you can out of him now and that could well be an 1,800+ yard season and a 20+ TD season, those are offensive player of the year type numbers. Form is temporary, class is permanent, and Tomlinson will re-establish himself over Peterson as the top back in the league, for now at least.
 
Doc – Tony Romo (QB, Cowboys). I don't think this is as particularly far out idea as many may say. Romo has, in the regular season had nothing but success since he replaced Drew Bledsoe in 2006. He has obvious talent and has great talent all around him. It all adds up to another highly productive season for the leader of the highly touted Dallas Cowboys. If he repeats the performances of last season which is eminently feasible, in the brutal NFC East then it will be deservedly that Tony Romo will take this accolade.
 
The 2008 Defensive Player of the Year will be:
 
Chris – Jared Allen (DE, Vikings). A lot of guess work here because the DMVP is much wider open. Allan has a big contract to live up to but has the Williams pair next to him so he shouldn't attract too many double teams. His sack numbers could go through the roof, especially if Peterson and company on offense can keep him fresh on the sidelines for long periods.
 
Stock – Patrick Willis (MLB, 49ers). A massive tackle total and some gaudy highlight reel will see the media go all in for Willis, there might be other deserving players out there but with a strong start I don't think anyone else will even get into the running. The media is determined to make Willis into the new Ray Lewis (minus the early career off field “issues”) and he's doing a damned good job of developing towards that (he's not there or close yet) such that the media are going to propel him to this award. It's going to take a big sack season from a DE or 3-4 rush LB to take this award from the man that the media seems ready to crown already.
 
Doc – Demarcus Ware (OLB, Cowboys). Having watched this guy over the past three years, he has gradually become the most complete football player on the Cowboys roster, and one of the most complete players in the NFL. Over the past two years he has obtained more sacks than more highly touted pass rushers like Dwight Freeney. Add in his obvious presence on the field's contribution towards his fellow OLB sacks levels and Ware is a beast. In the high-profile Cowboys team, Ware finally begins to get the recognition that he deserves as Merriman is relegated to an afterthought, with a (minimum) 14 sack season as a bona-fida NFL superstar.
 
The 2008 NFL MVP will be:
 
  Chris – Drew Brees (QB, Saints). The same reasons as I mentioned why he could well be the 2008 OPOTY. Quarterbacks are always likely to get this award if they post excellent stats which also result in their team heading for post season. I see that happening here.
 
Stock – Tony Romo (QB, Cowboys). They're my Superbowl pick, they'll have a big win total, so it makes sense that Romo takes this crown. Manning's crocked, rightly or wrongly Brady will be marked down for not matching last year's totals and so long as Romo keeps going (and gets help) through December he should be the flavour of the month for the MVP award. The media might come down hard on him but he's such a charismatic player that you just have to know the media is praying for him to come fully good, laid back attitude, beautiful better-half, if you add “winner” to that list of attributes the media will buy into Romo even bigger than they already have. I think the on-field performances will be sustained and as a result the accolades will roll in for Romo.
 
Doc – Tony Romo (QB, Cowboys). Chris talks about excellent stats helping MVP nominations, and he's right. In that case, the new NFL poster boy will continue where he left off in the regular season last year and deliver probably another set of team records on the way to eclipsing all others in the MVP race. Just please deliver a playoff run Tony.