Four Downs with Dang & Doc
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
4/2/2010
It’s all eyes on Miami this Sunday evening as Dang and Doc focus on this weekend’s Super Bowl match-up between the Saints and the Colts, and ask whether in a game with two high-octane passing offences the running game will play any kind of factor. Consequently, the boys break down the key match-ups that will determine Sunday’s result. And of course, we close out by asking for a prediction both for the game and the MVP award.
 The running game of neither the Colts nor the Saints will be any kind of factor in the Super Bowl.
DANG – FICTION !.
Both teams need their running game to open up their passing games. The Colts use Addai enough and affectively enough to keep defences honest and he’s a good enough back to get the respect when he’s in the backfield, likewise Donald Brown.
People seem to forget that the Saints had the 6th best running game this season, despite only 2 games where they had a 100 yard runner, and both of those were by week 3. They’ve worn down defences in the first half by airing it out a little more and limiting the run and then Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush, even Mike Bell have been thrust into the action in the 3rd and 4th Quarter when defences are softened up and they’ve gone on to get themselves a nice game and usually a score.
The Saints should target the Colts Run defense early for me, because despite Drew Brees being as good as he is, if the Colts get 2 scores up, he’s going to struggle to get done what he’s got done this season against lesser opposition and lead a comeback to win this game.
The Colts haven’t been that great defending the run in recent seasons, and the same applies again this season, they rank in the bottom 10 rush defences. Gary Brackett is a good middle linebacker but they have missed Bob Sanders again in that department, we saw how much he improved that area of the game the last time they made it to the Super Bowl.
I don’t think we’ll see a 100 yard runner unless somebody breaks a big one early on, but we’ll certainly see Addai, Brown, Bush and Thomas used enough to keep the ball moving, anyone who thinks this is going to be pass, pass, pass is going to be disappointed. I’m not under any illusions that these are Great running games and they’ll be the dominant factor in this game, as both teams have too good a passing offense to abandon it, but both teams running games have to be respected.
The leading rusher will have around 90 yards and that for me is a decent enough factor to have an impact on the game.
DOC – FACT ! – In the sense that it won’t win the game. Both teams have adequate rushing offences and whilst both will pay lip service to “establishing the run”, they’re not going to fool anyone. Both teams will eventually begin to air it out and once they do, until a team (in my view, the Colts) get a lead that is defendable, then the running game will be nothing more than an afterthought. And when you compare the weapons in the passing game – the likes of Colston, Henderson, Meacham, Bush, Wayne, Garcon, Clark etc, then I’m sorry but the likes of Pierre Thomas, Joe Addai and Donald Brown do pale in comparison. Add in, aside from Phil Rivers the best two QBs in the game right now and it makes no sense to put this game on the ground. I see this game starting off relatively slow, much like the Panthers v Patriots Super Bowl of a few years ago, only to then explode as both offences go to what they’re best at – airing it out. Addai and Brown will only really come into it when the Colts come to eating the clock up after the job is done through the air.
 The key match-up in the game is:
DANG – In the trenches. Colts Defensive line versus Saints Offensive line.
Freeney and Mathis up against Stinchcombe and Bushrod. Freeney is currently fighting a fitness battle to make this game with a Grade 3 sprained ankle. He’s already come back early from injury this season and is known for being a quick healer, but he’s really going to struggle to heal quickly from this one, if he can get fit then I’ll question just how affective he can be, particularly trying to use his spin moves, he needs to make it though as Raheem Brock is next to useless as a backup and Bushrod and Stinchcombe will easily deal with him, meaning they can double team Mathis on the other side.
Freeney and Mathis have been utterly dominant all season making up for the lack of push and penetration up the middle where on the other side of the ball, Jahri Evans, Jonathon Goodwin and Rookie Carl Nicks have been probably the best interior group of linemen in the league.
The role reversal of this battle will also be really interesting. If Gregg Williams can get his guys to start bringing the heat on the Colts impressive O Line then we might see this being a little closer than I think it might be, but the fact is, Defences simply don’t get to Peyton, look at what happened last week, the Jets #1 ranked Defense got too him twice early on, but after that, they simply weren’t in it, he picked them apart.
Charlie Johnson could be the weak link of the Colts O line, look for Williams to get his guys to target him and attack Manning’s blindside but he needs to get them where the Jets couldn’t get and I just don’t think they will.
DOC – Saints Defensive line against the Colts offensive line – The game will be won just by how much pressure Will Smith, Charles Grant, Sedrick Ellis etc can get on Peyton Manning. If they don’t get to him then it’s going to be a long day for the secondary of the Saints. And I can’t see them doing it, hence my predictions later in this column. 1.7%: that is the percentage of drop-backs on which Manning has found himself sacked this season. To give you an indication of just how low that figure is, Manning – who is one of the least sacked QBs in the league – usually averages just around the 3% mark. That gives you an indication of how hard the challenge the Saints defensive line is. If they don’t get to Peyton early and often and make it count (as Gregg Williams wants them to) then he’ll make them suffer and it will be a long day for those at the back end of the Saints defence.
 Your prediction is:
DANG – Colts by 10. Colts 34-24. No score in the first Quarter. Austin Collie First TD. Colts lead by 7 at the half. Highest scoring quarter will be the 4th and the score probably won’t reflect the game overall, as the Saints score a late TD with the Colts in prevent and then fail with an onside kick attempt to regain the ball and the Colts see the game out. As much as I like the Saints, I think there’s more chance of President Obama sending a man to the moon in 2010 as there will be of them winning this game. (So if they win, I volunteer for that job!)
DOC – Saints 21 Colts 35 – The Colts will win. Logic tells me that there’ll be plenty of points in the game given the respective attributes of both teams in the quarterback position and at receiver/tight end, and the respective weaknesses of both sides in the secondary. I just think they have too much quality across the board to not throw it away against the Saints. I look at New Orleans and the questions that I had before the season even started still are there. Granted, they’ve not been as evident as I thought they might be. After all, they are in the Super bowl as NFC Champions. But they still limped into the playoffs and an explosive performance against the Cardinals aside, still look suspect to me. Let’s be honest, the Vikings should have won that game handily but through a combination of many things managed to conspire to more or less give the game to the Saints when they wanted to take it. And it took them till overtime, against a team that turned the ball over six times to triumph. I’m sorry but that’s not a team for me that can live with Peyton Manning and the Colts.
 The MVP of Super Bowl XLIV will be:
DANG – In the most boring and predictable selection of all time, it will be Peyton Manning. The fact is, if he puts up big numbers and the Colts score the points I predict above, then unless one of his receivers has a 200 yard 3 TD game then it’s going to be Manning. Manning spreads the ball around too much for that to happen though, close down Reggie Wayne and then Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie become even bigger factors as we have seen all season, particularly against that #1 ranked Jets defense. For me, there are just too many factors for Manning and too many factors for the Saints to deal with. Saints DC Gregg Williams will really have to land those” reminder’s” on Peyton Manning real early to have any kind of impact, but with the Colts O line, with any kind of pressure, Manning will just revert to 3 step drops or play straight out of the gun and pick the Saints apart.
DOC – Peyton Manning – Because at the end of the day, even though there’ll probably be a better performance somewhere from someone, if the Colts win and win by putting up the kind of points that I think they will, it can’t be anyone other than Manning. Given that fans are able to help determine who wins this award these days, it makes it even more likely that it will be someone in one of the ‘glamour’ positions. As I said in my previous answer, I don’t believe the Saints will get anywhere near enough pressure on Peyton to disrupt his rhythm like they did last week when they teed off on Brett Favre at will. And everyone knows that when you give Peyton time to throw the ball he will make you suffer. Unless we get a three TD day from someone like Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark, it won’t be anyone other than Peyton.
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