Ask The Maverick !
by Fantasy Maverick
5/3/2010
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Run rookie run!
Two question-posers have written in with an eye to promising backs for 2010.
Mark Godden asks "how does LeSean McCoy stack up as the apparent number one for the Eagles?" and Tess Gayle is wondering "of this year's top rookie RBs, who will make an impact, and for which team?"
Maverick: There's nothing quite as exciting as speculating as to the success of tomorrow's stars – and I'm pleased to say there is indeed a promising group of nascent running backs set to enter the league in 2010, not to mention sophomores like McCoy ready to run, literally, with any chances they're given.
Let's make no bones about it – McCoy is someone whose stock went through the roof when Brian Westbrook, noble fantasy football soldier that he was, was finally released by Philadelphia last month. The thinking is that McCoy is simply a younger version of everything Westbrook came to be – a rounded, dynamic jitterbug with long-range scoring potential.
But I'm not as sold on McCoy as others are. For starters, he didn't quite put it together in the way we expected – in the way, say, Shonn Greene did – when given a decent opportunity at the end of last year. In fact, he was regularly bottled up in the season's final quarter, and fullback Leonard Weaver became a go-to guy with alarming regularity.
Second, he's still a marginal pass blocker, and in Andy Reid's pass heavy system, that facet of his game will need to improve rapidly. To answer your question Mark, I see McCoy as a 800-yard, six-touchdown type performer in '10, as Weaver and – more likely – a back not currently on the Eagles roster cut into his time.
Which brings us neatly to the rookies set to arrive on the scene on April. And let me tell you – I'm excited about their chances.
Fantasy success is about opportunity as much as talent, and in the NFL right now there are several potent teams with arguably gaping holes at the running back position. I'm thinking New England, Houston and San Diego in particular (though each or any may yet add a veteran like Thomas Jones), and to a lesser degree Seattle, Washington, Detroit and, possibly, San Francisco.
Moreover, last week's combine showcased a decent crop of rookie runners featuring, in order, of talent: CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer and to a lesser degree Joe McKnight, Dexter McCluster and Anthony Dixon. Any or all could wind up in a perfect scenario and any or all could yet put up rookie seasons in the Matt Forte, Steve Slaton (RIP, fantasy-wise) range.
Here's how it could shake out: Spiller may wind up in San Francisco with pick 13 (where his value is admittedly damaged by Frank Gore – until Gore is injured that is), or in Seattle at 14. Either way, he's worth drafting as an explosive offensive centrepiece in the Chris Johnson mould. Meanwhile, Matthews has a shot to find himself in San Diego, where his all-around skills would be utilised to the max and where, in all likelihood, he'd become the most desirable rookie runner in fantasy terms (and indeed that might be the case for whoever the Chargers pick up).
Best is a tough one to project – maybe he finds himself in San Diego, or maybe with a surprise team such as Washington, who could have success with him as a Tatum Bell-type in Mike Shanahan's zone system. Either way, his destination plays a big role in his success. In the meantime Dwyer and Dixon look set to carve out roles as 'thunder' runners in offenses like New England's or Houston's, where they would complement the lightness of touch brought by a Kevin Faulk or Slaton. They might score plenty of touchdowns in the right scenario.
McCluster is really intriguing too – as a Reggie Bush style do-it-all, he will be listed officially as a running back but is as much receiver and returner as anything else. If he lands anywhere with a quarterback – even if it is a Tampa Bay type situation – he has a chance to be productive and, above all, the ultimate flex player. You might argue something similar for McKnight too, though his value would plummet in a reserve role (such as in Minnesota).
Of course, it's all rampant speculation as of right now, but one way or another at least two or three rookie runners are very likely to be perfectly placed to have an impact right away in fantasy leagues for 2010.
And that's fantastic news.
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