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Rating the Rookies to Come
Billy Thompson: Who do you think will be the top offensive fantasy rookies to look for this year?
Maverick:
The upcoming NFL Draft is famously deep with talent across the board, with a myriad of junior eligibles nudged towards the pros by the lure of an uncapped salary structure (and by the fear of a concomitant rookie wage scale in 2011). Make no mistake, teams with multiple draft picks in the 2010 Player Selection Meeting know this draft translates to a once-in-an-era opportunity to benefit from a huge pool of skilled rookies.
How does that talent translate to the fantasy football field? Until the actual drafting takes place eight days from now, we can only speculate – but speculating sure is fun. Of course, the wrong combination of player and team can really sink value, but by now we know enough about most prospects' skill sets to get some indication of their long term fantasy outlook. It's an exercise that tends to titillate dynasty and keeper leaguers in particular.
So let's look at the top tier of tomorrow's touchdown makers in the context of where they might end up come draft day.
1. CJ Spiller, RB.
Spiller is small – 5'11” and 196 lbs. – but in a league infatuated with the skills of Chris Johnson, he'll get every chance to be someone's feature back. That he also poses a threat as a receiver and returner won't hurt at all, and his sheer speed makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field anytime he's got the ball. Possible landing spots: Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, Giants, New England
2. Ryan Matthews, RB
Matthews is bigger and more powerful than Spiller and stands a better chance of consistent goal line work and short yardage success. A perfect fit for a one-cut scheme like Houston's, Matthews is also reasonable in pass protection, which means he'll see the field plenty as a rookie. Possible landing spots: Houston, New England, San Diego, Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans
3. Dez Bryant, WR
Yes, Bryant has baggage. Yes, he is reportedly off ten teams' draft boards already. But my, can he play. Rarely do rookie receivers make an impact – it's a rarefied club featuring Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Eddie Royal and a handful of others – but Bryant has the chops to do it, especially if questions about character push him down towards a contending team like New England or Dallas, though Miami are out of the running in the wake of the Brandon Marshall trade. He should out-perform Michael Crabtree as a rookie and might approach Colston levels if he's prepared to work. Possible landing spots: Denver, Pittsburgh, New England, Dallas, Seattle, Jets, Baltimore
4. Jahvid Best, RB
Best figures to be the third back off the board on draft day, likely early on in round two. Every bit the speed threat Spiller is, Best is also solid in the passing game and will begin his career as a third down back with something to prove – namely that the durability issues that have plagued him are a thing of the past. If healthy, he might be a steal. Possible landing spots: Detroit, San Diego, Cleveland, Miami, New England, San Francisco, Seattle
5. Ben Tate, RB
Tate heads up a crop of four or five second tier runners whose fantasy status depends entirely on the team that selects them. Tate is custom built for a zone blocking scheme in the style of Houston's or Washington's. Above all, he can function as a receiver and blocker and tested as the combine's top overall athlete at RB. Possible landing spots: Houston, Seattle, Washington, New England, Detroit
6. Golden Tate, WR
Could Tate be this draft's second receiver to buck the trend of first-year wideouts sinking without a trace? The good news is he comes straight from Charlie Weis's pro style Notre Dame offense and that his after-catch skills are comparable to a running back's. He has a chance of an Eddie Royal/Wes Welker type impact in the right scheme. Possible landing spots: Kansas City, New England, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Tampa, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh
7. Montario Hardesty, RB
The second of the right-time, right-place prospects, Hardesty could get buried on a roster or pop up as a surprise feature back for a team with a hole on the depth chart. Physically he fits the bill, with good long speed and decent power. Like Tate, his best fit will be a zone blocking scheme. Possible landing spots: Houston, Seattle, Washington, Miami, Detroit, New England, New Orleans, Denver
8. Anthony Dixon, RB
Though Dixon tested slowly in his combine 40 (4.64), his feet are quick, a characteristic that made big backs Jerome Bettis and Ron Dayne what they were. Dixon is raw in the receiving game but is a thumper between the tackles and will be asked to score from the goal line plenty. Possible landing spots: New England, Miami, San Diego, New Orleans, Cleveland, Green Bay
9. Toby Gerhart, RB
It remains to be seen if Gerhart will land a feature or prominent role in a backfield – no Caucasian runner has registered 1000 yards in the NFL since Craig James in the 80s. Still, a solid all around athlete lacking only in long speed, somebody is going to give him a shot to make a mark as more than just a blocker. Possible landing spots: New England, Miami, San Diego, Detroit, St. Louis, Green Bay
10. Jonathan Dwyer, RB
Dwyer might be a Shonn Greene-style feature back for someone someday, assuming he makes the transition from Tech's spread triple option attack. He won't get on the field on third downs early in his career, but he might be asked to barrel into the end zone an awful lot. Possible landing spots: St. Louis, New England, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee, Giants, San Diego
Just missed: Demaryius Thomas WR; Joe McKnight RB; Dexter McCluster RB/WR; Arrelious Benn WR
Ask The Maverick !
1. CJ Spiller, RB.