Does The 2008 Schedule Already Tell Us Who We'll Be Watching In January?
by Alistair Mclean
25/7/2008
 
So the draft is behind us, and mini camps are finished, and training camps and the pre-season are on the horizon - this is the closest we have to a true offseason. But even with all the hard work ahead of the teams, do we actually already know who'll be making the playoffs come January?
 
Before we answer who, let's look at how a team make the playoffs - kind of obvious you're thinking, but bear with me.
 
Last year six of the dozen playoff teams had a record of 10-6 or 9-7, that is just one or two games above an even record. In 2006 an 8-8 team made the NFC's sixth seed, in addition to the six 10-6 or 9-7 teams that again made the playoffs.
 
We can see that looking back at the standings for those two years that 18 teams - over half the league - finished within two games of an 8-8 season. In 2006 it was even higher at 21 teams.
 
This does seem to back up what so many NFL observers seem to like to point out, we are in "an era of parity". As we all know, there are a small number of elite teams, and a small number of teams that shall we say are rebuilding - or at least in need of it.
 
However as we've seen, the majority of teams fall in the middle, where a missed field goal here and there, plus a couple of inopportune penalties, and even just some simple bad luck means a difficult long offseason, rather than January football. And every year each of those middle-tier teams really are close to getting an invite to the playoff party - they might not get the best seats like the elite teams, but the key is to get in isn't it? Ask the Giants.
 
So, if that's the how handled, what about the who?
 
What could mean the difference for our middle pack of 18-21 teams between winning that extra game or two to get them to the top of the pack?
 
How about who they play?
 
Obvious? Maybe. But not all schedules are equal.
 
If you line the teams up as per the 2008 draft order - effectively the NFL's cross-conference ranking of the previous season - with the Giants as #1 and Miami as #32, then look at who each team faces, you see some interesting patterns.
 
I've also done the same for last year's schedule using the 2007 draft order, again the NFL's assessment of the previous season.
 
You'd think that any given team would face a Top 10 team 5 times ( top 10 / 31 teams ~ 1/3; 1/3 of 16 games ~ 5) and last year all the teams were scheduled to play between 4 and 6 Top 10 opponents.
 
This year however the schedule is, well, all over the place: both Atlanta and New Orleans only face two Top 10 teams, and both Indianapolis and Houston face eight!
 
The really interesting thing though is that looking at the top 3 teams in the AFC - New England, San Diego and Indianapolis - they have very different seasons ahead of them.
 
They have all avoided playing the strong NFC division (NFC East), but where Indianapolis faces 8 games against Top 10 opponents and only 2 against bottom 10 teams, New England faces just 3 Top 10 opponents and 10 in the bottom 10. San Diego is similar at 3 and 9.
 
Also of interest: the average rank of New England's opponents last year was 14th team in the league when they went 16-0 - this year it's 20th!! 16-0 again? Could well be!
 
So, when New England travels to Indianapolis in Week 9, the Pats only big game will have been San Diego in Week 6. The Colts however will have played Jacksonville (Wk 3), Green Bay (Wk 7) and Tennessee (Wk 8).
 
On top of that New England faces Buffalo, the Jets and Miami immediately after Indianapolis, whereas Indy face Pittsburgh (#10), Houston and San Diego (#6). I know which string of games I'd rather face.
 
San Diego will be doing just as well as New England when they face the Colts in week 12, having only faced New England and Pittsburgh at that time.
 
So after Week 12, with each of these three elite AFC teams having played 11 games, the Pats could easily be 11-0 (again), San Diego could be 10-1, and poor old Peyton and co could conceivably be down to 7-4.
 
Enough of the top teams, has the schedule answered our question of who, specifically who from the middle group?
 
Maybe not, but I think it's helped.
 
The AFC North teams (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinatti & Baltimore) all face the NFC East (Dallas, NY Giants, Washington, Philadelphia) so we can expect tough seasons for all of them, and Cleveland in particular is now playing the big boys (seven Top 10 opponents) and I expect we'll see them slide back as a result. Look for Brady Quinn by Week 8!
 
The AFC East (New England, N.Y. Jets, Miami & Buffalo) plays the NFC West (Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco & St. Louis) this year. This means that none of the eight teams faces more than five Top 10 opponents, but gets to play between six and ten Bottom 10 teams. Similarly to the NFC South this is mostly because the two divisions provided five of last year's bottom 10. Obviously New England stands head and shoulders over all the teams in both divisions with the possible exception of Seattle. However should one of the other teams make some strides they could easily win all their other matchups within the two divisions and come out with seven wins. They would then only need to win two or three from the remaining six games on their schedule and find themselves in the playoffs. Of course at this time of year there are a lot of good vibes around pretty much all of the six teams, so let's see who can take the opportunity in front of them.
 
The AFC West (San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City & Denver) versus the NFC South (New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay & Carolina) is a similar matchup to that of the AFC East vs NFC West. This group includes four of last year's Bottom 10 teams, and contains only one really strong team - the London-bound San Diego. San Diego's host in London New Orleans could easily be the other team to rise out of this group, but that could be said of all of the teams bar probably Oakland and Atlanta.
 
And of course in the AFC South poor old Houston has a real rough time again facing Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee twice each contributing to a total of eight Top 10 opponents. Perhaps they should apply to the NFC South for asylum...
 
The NFC North (Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit & Chicago) provides the AFC South's cross conference opponents. With the AFC South on the schedule, could the NFC North be the division to provide and 8-8 division champion?
 
Clearly this all assumes that coaching changes, draft picks, free agency, retirements, un-retirements and sheer hard work count for nothing and no team is better or worse than last year, they just face different opponents. But equally it does show that one team's significant improvement could be held back but a punishing series of opponents, while another may make little headway but find itself still playing in January.
 
And ultimately regardless of how you get there, it's the playoffs that count and getting yourself an invite is what matters and then anything can happen!